Paul Still Strong In Iowa
The latest Public Policy Polling report shows that Rep. Ron Paul has a four point lead over his nearest rival, Mitt Romney. The top line is Paul, 24; Romney, 20; Gingrich, 13; Bachmann, 11; Perry and Santorum, 10.
One interesting thing about Paul's showing is that it is built around a coalition of voters quite different in make-up than supporters of his rivals. Romney has a narrow lead with those who are Republicans while Paul has a dramatic advantage with those who are independent or Democrats. Likewise, Romney has older voters while Paul has a big advantage with those under 45 years old. Typically you want to have older supporters on board because they, well, they actually vote. As opposed to young people who simply tell you that they will vote for you and then get distracted by a News Radio marathon or something. But in Iowa, young voters have helped people secure victory before.
PPP says Santorum is best positioned for a surprise outcome.
The New York Times reports that every candidate is going hard against Paul except for Romney. This is, of course, because Paul showing well doesn't hurt Romney.
Our final Paul update is that he's released his latest ad, which positions himself against flip-flopping Romney and hypocritical Gingrich:
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May '11
Re: Paul Still Strong In Iowa
Ron Paul is strong with Democrats. What a surprise! Maybe he could use the slogan "Ron Paul - The candidate for people who are disappointed that Obama wasn't quite as [redacted for Code of Conduct] crazy as they hoped."
Edited on Dec 28, 2011 at 8:07amApr '11
Re: Paul Still Strong In Iowa
There'll be a lot of funny parties if this is remotely accurate, since a lot of the Paul guys are amongst the most bitter of the Romney haters, and a lot of the Romney fans are quite unkindly dismissive of Paul supporters. Having a huge shared victory would be an interesting social occasion.
Edited on Dec 28, 2011 at 8:08amNov '11
Re: Paul Still Strong In Iowa
I would not vote for RP, however in a poll I might say I am. Many of us describe ourselves these days as libertarian-leaning conservatives to separate ourselves from RINOs/establishment Republicans. Republicans know they have their grassroots (conservatives) as we would never vote for Obama (and we do vote) and feel they can choose anyone for us. After all if you think you have your base wrapped up, why kowtow? I consider this a warning shot over the bow to Republicans. We conservatives are feeling closer to Libertarian candidates these days than Republicans and as soon as there is one that is not RonPaul they may really be surprised- they ARE noticing now, aren’t they? (I don’t think they realize how angry many of us are about McCain/Romney and are tired of their ‘fear’ of democrats/media).
Dec '11
Re: Paul Still Strong In Iowa
When, oh, when are we going to stand up and pronounce that the Iowa caucus is a total fraud?
Re: Paul Still Strong In Iowa
I never understand the strategy of mocking a rival's supporters.
I may not like Romney but I get why my mother does. I think she's wrong, but I don't make fun of her for it. In general I think that other politicians should strive to emulate his poise and polish (which she loves in a candidate).
Likewise, it's important to understand Paul's appeal and see how much his message of a limited government resonates with voters.
Dec '10
Re: Paul Still Strong In Iowa
Was it a fraud when Bushes I and II won it? Or Dole? How about when the Gipper did really well. In 1976.
Since 1976, in fact, no candidate in either party has won the nomination without winning Iowa or New Hampshire, or both.
You may not like Rep. Paul, which is your right. Thank the Lord for it. But stop pretending his support doesn't mean anything. Of course it means something.
May '11
Re: Paul Still Strong In Iowa
Oh, I used a word that got [redacted for Code of Conduct]. I kind of like that. It allows the reader's imagination to plug in a word waaaaay stronger than the one I actually used.
Dec '11
Re: Paul Still Strong In Iowa
Was it a fraud when Bushes I and II won it? Or Dole? How about when the Gipper did really well. In 1976.
Since 1976, in fact, no candidate in either party has won the nomination without winning Iowa or New Hampshire, or both.
Only one GOP candidate who was not a sitting President has ever won the Iowa caucus and gone on to win the Presidency. That was George W. Bush, in 2000. Just ask President Mike Huckabee or President Bob Dole - who won the caucus in both 1988 and 1996.
And by the way, I happen to be a long-time supporter of Ron Paul, though his foreign-policy statements of late have led me to turn away.
Nov '11
Re: Paul Still Strong In Iowa
Something else to consider is that farmers/ranchers do have one major interest- property rights. Iowa is farming.
Mar '11
Re: Paul Still Strong In Iowa
Ron Paul is our Louis Farrakhan. 90 percent of what he says makes so much sense, and then *bam!*, he hits you with the other 10 percent, and you wonder why you were listening to him in the first place.
Mar '11
Re: Paul Still Strong In Iowa
Not just Iowa. New Hampshire too. They're both fringe magnets. South Carolina is the first "real" primary now.
Mar '11
Re: Paul Still Strong In Iowa
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.:
Likewise, it's important to understand Paul's appeal and see how much his message of a limited government resonates with voters. · Dec 28 at 8:10am
I absolutely understand that appeal. I absolutely understand the admiration for his unwavering drive to cut government. That's why even I took another look at the guy. But people mock his followers for a reason. There's just no getting around the fact that the guy's following has some cult-like attributes, and that a very vocal group of his supporters are truthers and Israel-haters and conspiracy mongers. Ever listen to the Alex Jones show? That's Paul's core base, not the standard small-government crowd in flyover country. Listening to and reading Paul more, I see the same kind of conspiratorial bent in his thinking. Everything is a shadowy plot.
That's a shame, because I think that Paul is also the only guy that would actually try to shrink government. We're damned if we do, and damned if we don't in this race.
Dec '11
Re: Paul Still Strong In Iowa
I'm starting to think that Ron Paul is the American conservative movement's answer to David Orchard.
Edited on Dec 28, 2011 at 8:52amApr '11
Re: Paul Still Strong In Iowa
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.: I never understand the strategy of mocking a rival's supporters.
I may not like Romney but I get why my mother does. I think she's wrong, but I don't make fun of her for it. In general I think that other politicians should strive to emulate his poise and polish.
Likewise, it's important to understand Paul's appeal and see how much his message of a limited government resonates with voters.
I'm completely with you. I was expressing sadness about both camps.
I do feel, in doing so, that I should disclaim my own personal unhappiness with Paul; when I was campaigning in 2008, every time I met someone who cried, it was because they believed in some BS put out by Paul campaigners (the big thing in Nevada, for instance, was North American Union stuff). I don't know how involved Paul was in that, and I don't know if it's happening at all this time (I can't campaign in person and no one cries angrily down the phone).
I don't think that Paul guys here believe it, and I like to believe it was campaign hijacking.
Oct '10
Re: Paul Still Strong In Iowa
Lots of Ron Paul videos from BreitbartTV.