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Why a Gaza Truce Would Settle Nothing
Israeli forces have moved into the city of Rafah and taken control of a key border crossing after carrying out a number of airstrikes, and the IDF continues to engage in military activities in the city in southern Gaza. Hamas announced its willingness to accept a cease-fire, but only if Israel stops hostilities, withdraws its troops, and releases prisoners in exchange for hostages. This deal, an obvious nonstarter, is the fruit of the unwise and prolonged efforts of the Biden administration to push too hard for that elusive cease-fire. Secretary of State Antony Blinken insisted that the “time is now” for a “pause” in the underlying hostilities, but he had already given up too much ground by trying to broker a hostage deal without demanding that all hostages be released unconditionally before any further negotiations took place—a release that won’t happen now. Indeed, the Biden administration had already made it much harder to reach a deal by apparently letting it be known that it had put a hold on an arms shipment to Israel.
All parties have been down this road before. At this point, I agree fully with the Wall Street Journal that taking Rafah is necessary for the Israelis to achieve, as a minimum condition for success, the elimination of Hamas as a political and military force. No cease-fire can attain that objective so long as Hamas insists the Israelis withdraw entirely from the area. That demand is now facilitated by the United States, which seems to have lost sight of the atrocities of October 7 and is extending the war by blocking any decisive Israeli response. Biden and Blinken seem blind to the simple fact that there is no stable middle ground.