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What if he Actually Wins?
One of the constants of the political coverage this last year has been “Donald Trump cannot win because… ” Anyone who offered a scenario contrary to the cited “because” was self-delusional, a wishful thinker, or just plain stupid. And through it all, Trump just kept advancing, advancing, and advancing right through to the nomination. The conventional wisdom may still hold and he may yet lose in a landslide in November. But what if he does win? What if the conventional wisdom is actually a conventional delusion?
There will be plenty of theories to be sure. It was a year of historically horrible candidates. The vote was too fractured. Too many of this or that faction stayed home. Too many of this or that faction showed up. But like the financial commercials say, past results should never be seen as a guarantee of future returns.
In all honesty, I don’t think anyone knows. Circumstances constantly change. There were newspaper-only elections, radio elections, television elections and, now, internet and social media elections. In 1896, the winning candidate never left his house. In my lifetime alone, three major “that’ll never happen” presidents happened: We elected a Catholic, a divorced man, and a non-white.
The truth is that every election is unique and the circumstances that align the electorate are hard to repeat or predict. I don’t know what kind of president Donald Trump would make, I only know that if he gets a chance to show it, there’s a lot of people who make their living professing to know how to win elections are going to look unconventionally stupid.
Published in Politics
Excuse me? Trumps entire campaign is prefaced on a notion of victimhood. Now his victims are different than others victims but he portrays them as victims nonetheless.
The stakes are control of a weaponized Supreme Court, which is being used in a way the Constitution was never designed to empower: overcoming the will of the people’s elected representatives to assault American culture with the Left’s agenda. Everything else is fixable four or eight years from now. The Left’s takeover of the court would be fixed for generations.
Thanks to both of you — I go back and forth thinking about this myself.
This has been the key component of the left’s success, hasn’t it? Incremental changes, taking the long view, chipping away where they can, but conceding what they need to at the time (thinking back to when liberals feigned offense at being compared to socialists/communists, or the lip service they paid to things like regulatory burdens, the working class, and American exceptionalism; “don’t ask don’t tell”; “abortion should be safe legal and rare” etc etc) …and gradually they work to change the culture. If conservatism “happens”, this is the way it would have to happen.
I think the wide swath of the (mostly apolitical) population who view Reagan favorably, do so because of the economic growth and prosperity , and not because of any clearly articulated ideology.
Yes, the same people who gave Obama the Nobel Peace Prize and melted down when Reagan didn’t kiss Gorbachev’s backside at Reykjavik. Use Europe as a reverse indicator…except for the former Eastern bloc who knows the real face of socialism and a reconstituting “Soviet Union.”
I have it on good authority the Cookie Monster is a Hillary supporter.
Yes, but they have to be certified deplorable
More government vs less government is the battle we’ve waged for decades. Who is in charge of more government is entirely dismissive of the less government argument.
They’ve been there for a long time. Conservatives have been resisting. This year it seems conservatives are willing to concede defeat on the possibility of less government. Times change. Move on.
Depends on government grants? Check
Demands free cookie? Check
Blue Lives Matter? Check
Sometimes he says, no. Then we pray Psalm 109:8.
Guys like Paul can gloat if he wants to, but I don’t know about relegating Nevertrumpers to hash. I, for one, if Trump wins, will say, “I voted against the guy (voted for McMullen) but now that Trump’s president, I’ll do everything I can do to make sure he is encouraged, pushed, cajoled, threatened, whatever, to govern as the limited-government, freedom-loving, free-trading, constitutional conservative we need instead of the big government ‘strong man’ he really is.” You might say, “But you give up any right to influence a candidate you voted against.” Oh really? Didn’t conservatives who voted against Clinton push him nonetheless to reform welfare and actually make him utter the words, “the era of big government is over?” Since I don’t think Trump really has any core values he’ll stick to when push comes to shove (or maybe it’s shove’s turn to make the first move), it’s worth a short. Here I stand.
Right on.
Fwiw, in Trump’s ‘The Art of the Deal’ he says his negotiating tactic is to demand four times what you want, and then compromise. I think that is the way to see his approach to immigration reform and trade agreements. That plus the fact he is picking conservative advisors implies he won’t adopt destructive policies.
He isn’t “the” cookie monster. His surname is Monster and his given name is Cookie. You racist.
How would you know if they don’t have to show ID at the polls?
Two things:
This worked so well for the Romans, whose Republic was rescued by a strong man. Who was that again? Marius? Sulla? Pompey? Caesar? Augustus? Right, it was Augustus who saved the Republic.
And went down in history as the first Emperor.
And you think the guy who donated to Hillary Clinton and just proposed paid maternity leave is the guy to do that?
I don’t think that’s accurate.
If anything Hillary would clean house and pack it with Clintonistas. Not the same thing as the Obama people.
Sure, and you’re an expert of what? Bravo Siena?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
From the very conservative RCP which included polls with cobwebs hanging off them.
Trump’s effect down-ballot, Warner said is likely helping the GOP. According to the Ohio sec. of state’s office, more than 1 million Ohio voters have gone from unaffiliated, or Democratic, to Republican.
Rob Portman, for instance.
Yes, you read that right, ONE MILLION OHIO VOTERS.
Right. But at no point has the average put Trump ahead. And luckily for us, we don’t elect a president through a national plebiscite.
I’d be very interested in reading more about that. Could you provide a link?
Yes. Got a problem with that? Just like the guy who supported FDR and did amnesty cut it loose the last time.
The US economy, once the leash is off will astound you.
That seems high. Doesn’t that seem high?
Granted something’s spooking the high profile Dem’s. Well, I think Axelrod just hates her, but even Cokie Roberts is talking about replacing her.
My problem is that I don’t think it’s connected to reality.