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Hold My Corona: China Showing Basic Civic Competence
Thanks to the PowerLine crew, Ricochet members got better insight into what is and is not happening in China than we got from any other media outlet. Steven Hayward had an American in Wuhan give a field report.
If you had ears to hear, you should be both reassured and worried. You should be reassured that China is competently responding to a public health threat. You should be concerned and relieved that the Chinese government and institutions are truly competent, capable of learning from past experiences. That makes them a more dangerous regional and global competitor at the same time as we can assume they are less likely to blunder incompetently into a major war.
Haiti and Chile are polar opposites. The mostly flat island nation literally fell apart with a major earthquake. Chile, a mountainous land astride the ominously named “Ring of Fire,” politely declines sincere offers from the US and Israeli urban search and rescue teams because their buildings do not just fall down and crush the occupants. Why? Because Haiti is a terminally corrupt society and Chile is deadly serious about accountability, ensuring all buildings are truly earthquake resistant. No sketchy enforcement of concrete rebar codes in Chile, unlike Haiti or even Mexico. The lack of casualties after major earthquakes is an important indicator of government competence and civic accountability.
Corona is a Mexican beer, of German derivation, not Spanish. The coronavirus ain’t no Spanish flu. It appears the bug is taking people in their 40s and older, not younger healthy people. And the Chinese people are not panicking in the putative epicenter. An American post-doc interviewed on the latest PowerLine podcast tells us that residents of Wuhan calmly went shopping for fresh produce, walking past the sacks of rice you would want for a long quarantine siege. So, the people at the center of the supposed disaster have enough rice at home and just wanted the week’s fresh produce on top of the staples they believed they had enough of at home.
Meanwhile, the Chinese Communist government had learned from the last public health scare or crisis. They had a 1,000-bed hospital in a box ready for immediate deployment and have already pulled the trigger on popping up this hospital. Apparently, they may also have a second contingency capability with a second 1,300-bed facility they can bring into operation in three weeks. This is in addition to Chinese authorities reportedly directing 20 existing hospitals to prioritize coronavirus cases.
This is what a “first world” response looks like. The authorities, organizations, and people who pulled this off are not people you want to mess with. You don’t want to have a shooting war with this crew. On the other hand, such basic competence suggests that the risk of lethal foul-ups is much lower, that high stakes geopolitics will not end in an “oops!” followed by the biggest “kaboom” humans have ever heard. We are all, indeed, living in interesting times … in the Year of the Rat!
Published in General
So then, is it time for China to take its place on the world stage? Interestingly their combination of competence and centralized authoritarianism makes for comfortable and productive lives without Liberty. Is that the future for Asia? If so what about the rest of us? As for me, Give me Liberty or Give me Death! But I doubt most Americans would agree.
I do agree we are not likely to have them blunder into a major war with the US or any war that could turn nuclear but that doesn’t preclude brush fire type wars that have been constant since WWII. It could be time for us to reach some accommodation with them that acknowledges China is going to be the hedgemon in that region because that outcome is inevitable no matter what we do? If so, it is time for Japan, Korea and Australia to step up.
I got to tell you, if you look at the stuff coming out of China from the area don’t speak of a great response by the Chicom government.
They got off to a late start and have let it spread widely. I have serious doubts about the numbers coming from the government as being vastly under reported. Just look at this video from a hospital in Wuhan….
It’s spread by respiratory secretions. If those people herded like cattle didn’t have an infection when they entered the hospital they probably do now….
I’m not giving them any credit yet. Too many credible reports of downplaying the situation.
Cliff,
I’m with Kozak 100% here. I don’t trust Marxist governments and if you haven’t noticed they still are Marxists. If this thing can incubate for 2 weeks before showing symptoms and still be communicable then it is very dangerous.
Remember when Chernobyl happened and the Soviets wouldn’t take our robots to shut it down. They sent in 300 of their own people to certain death. This isn’t a 1st world v. 3rd world problem. This is a free society v. a totalitarian society problem. Sorry, I don’t trust them.
Regards,
Jim
Meanwhile our country is screening travelers from China for symptoms at limited locations, and we now know that it is contagious before symptoms spread. Travelers not wanting to miss vacations or baby-birthing trips may attempt to hide symptoms. Our current plan doesn’t sound like a competent response to me.
Iguana,
You are on to this analysis. If it is contagious before symptoms show then it can produce a false sense of security that can be deadly.
Wuhan Mayor Admits: Five Million Left Before Virus Lockdown
Regards,
Jim
Three of my kids and spouses went to Australia for the Australian Open and are very concerned about the virus as many Chinese visit Australia. So far it seems the Chinese are open about the number of cases and are quarantining as is necessary. I won’t feel comfortable until they come home.
Go back to what I wrote. Did I cite government sources?
Just started looking at the Global Health Security Index.
China scores slightly ahead of both India and Israel. At the same time, they are in a scoring band that indicates less preparedness than the U.S. and a handful of Western countries.
For some reason I’m reminded here of Deng’s 24-character strategy and Dr. Kissinger’s questions posed to the reader in “On China:”
I don’t think we have any reason to really trust what the Chinese government says but in my opinion it would be a mistake to believe they aren’t very competent. Hu Jintao already started to revise Deng’s principle and Xi Jinping has really kicked it up a notch. They’ve clearly been more assertive and in addition to thinking about if they will “recognize the perils of excessive self-confidence” we also need to keep our excessive self-confidence in mind.