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Day 125: COVID-19 Why are people so fearful?
I confess that I am not much of a consumer of mainstream media news. My infrequent forays into it during the epidemic suggest that they are highlighting the more dire predictions of catastrophe. They do this for two reasons: It’s more exciting news, and it contributes to the erosion of the one thing, the economy, that made President Trump’s re-election a foregone conclusion.
But not every American is subject to influence by this narrative; supposedly 90% of people distrust the media. So why are people so fearful? Part of it is that not enough people are paying that level of attention to understand that “case counts” do not differentiate between those who have “flu-like” symptoms and are seeking assurance that they are not infected with COVID-19 virus (80% of the people tested get that assurance) and those that will suffer horribly or die from COVID-19. I have seen local news feature persons who did get ill and survive but had a harrowing experience. So the news is designed to make you identify with the featured sufferer and conclude that the odds you will be in their position is greater than it actually is.
So what are the odds that you will die? The most current CDC estimate (and this is part of the problem: the evolving estimates) is that it is extremely rare for anyone under 50 years of age to die of COVID-19 even if they do present with symptoms (and a lot of people don’t). It does happen, but the fact that it happens to a small number of people does not make it likely that it will happen to you. People die from base jumping accidents, but not everyone engages in base jumping. Similarly, even if you are under 50 years of age your own physiology and life experience are likely quite different from the person(s) under 50 who died of COVID-19. And people under 50 are about two-thirds of our total population, over 80% of our productive workforce, and likely 99% of our parental units with school-aged children.
Yes, the risk goes up over 50 years of age, and then again over 65. But even in the highest age groups the odds of dying are highest in group living situations where people are suffering from illnesses that are killing them more slowly until COVID-19 accelerates the process.
There are people who fit the highest probability for death if they get this disease. Their concerns and fears are justified. And dramatic targeted action to protect them is called for. But not for the vast majority of people. Is their fear based on ignorance of the facts as they are developing? Or something more sinister, manipulation of information to enhance their fears? Or something more general, years of public education on how our lives and behaviors must be restricted to keep us safe?
[Note: Links to all my COVID-19 posts can be found here.]
Published in General
This is the chart that @paulschinder referenced in his comment. And it does demonstrate that death from COVID-19 is in decline even as more deaths accumulate. What we need for perspective in this chart is the height of the blue bar for 2020 given the existence of COVID-19, i.e. the “net death increase” that COVID-19 is creating for our society. It is this “net death” phenomena that needs to guide our public response. Caregivers give care regardless of the numbers, but expectations (realized or not) drive public fear.
I’ve been thinking the vaccine solution. It’s likely there will be several prevention and treatment options hitting the marketplace at the same moment next fall simply because the private sector research-and-development efforts all kicked off at roughly the same time.
Talking people into taking preventive or treatment steps will have to be part of the public health strategy. We are much better informed consumers of medical information than previous generations were. There can’t be the massive inoculation drives that we saw with polio and tetanus.
My husband went through treatment for prostate cancer two years ago. I was very impressed by the way the Lahey Clinic doctors talked with us about the options available to us at the start. We had an hour-long session with a doctor whose job was to have that conversation with us. He had charts and graphs and written materials for us to review. We had eight options to consider, and he had looked at my husband’s health history and the options and had evaluated each one in relation to my husband’s health as an individual patient. He made a recommendation, but he also gave us a look at the same choices he was looking at.
I think we will have to work within a similar framework in the future for this virus. We’ll just have to make up our minds to that if we are going to stop the spread of this virus. I don’t know if that will mean community meetings so that we can get information to people efficiently in groups or some other ways to communicate with people. What I do know is that the communication about it will be as important as the vaccine or treatment itself.
Depending on what use one intends to make of the chart is potentially misleading in several ways:
Absolutely. And, sadly, I think that is going to be a bit of a bumpy ride. There will be those who push for mandatory vaccination to “protect the most vulnerable”. There will be those that resist vaccination in the belief it will include “mind control” elements. And it is the extremes that will push the debate.
My hope is that the public at large will be accepting of risk which makes it OK to be vaccinated voluntarily and thus coverage will be incomplete. I hope we know enough about antibodies and natural immunity by then to make informed judgements about who needs the vaccine.
And add to that that all epidemics are local and responses need to be tailored to that fact. My county which has a population larger than 9 US states has a total of 36 deaths with 11 currently in the hospital (high of 44). 22 of the dead were 80+ years of age and 1 was under 50. But our churches cannot worship in-person while grocery stores provide us physical food and our drug stores medicine, all with apparently acceptable protocols for people conversing together.
I found this little blip of a HCQ comment from Dr Drew to be reassuring.
He is one of media’s darlings. If his statements were about opposing HCQ, instead of his approving of it big time, then this under a minute video would be shown on every media outlet 24/7. Instead you only find it on twitter, if you are following certain well informed people.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1263063293834530817
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The TDS is mind-boggling.
Groceries, packages, Amazon deliveries, basically anything that enters the house from outside and therefore is possibly contaminated with the plague.
I speak not for myself but from first-hand knowledge of acquaintances.
Trump derangement syndrome
That would include mailed-in ballots, wouldn’t it.
Wow. He doesn’t want to hear it is safe and possibly useful. He refuses to acknowledge any comment about its safety, and he is listening to a real doctor.
Can we really know why people are so fearful if we don’t ask them? Not that they will always tell us the truth but wouldn’t their answers be informative, whether true or false?
Cause we got a lot of slow learners.
I have found very few actually behave like they are frightened, most talk a good story to keep the unemployment coming. I know it is cynical, but it is what I see in my area. We’ve had very few cases in northern Michigan.
People also seem to like to be afraid. I am not one for horror movies, but a lot of people like them. I think it must be a basic need, to be afraid, and somehow our comfortable lives don’t really provide that. The angels say “Fear not”, acknowledging man’s natural reaction to the unknown. And it is the unknown that is what is scary, like death, which is also unknown.
And remember from Newsies, you gotta sell them paps, and embellishing headlines does it.