Ricochet is the best place on the internet to discuss the issues of the day, either through commenting on posts or writing your own for our active and dynamic community in a fully moderated environment. In addition, the Ricochet Audio Network offers over 50 original podcasts with new episodes released every day.
Election Prediction
Yogi Berra is alleged to have quipped “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” That warning notwithstanding, I will go out on a limb and make some predictions about the 2018 midterms.
- Republicans will more than hold the Senate, they will gain seats.
- Republicans will flip the Senate seats in Florida, Montana, Indiana, North Dakota, and Ohio.
- Republicans will fail to flip the West Virginia seat, mainly because Republicans are so good at leaving Senate seats on the table that they should walk away with. (I’m looking at you Todd Aiken, Sharon Angle, Roy Moore, etc.)
- Republicans will pull out a narrow surprise victory and flip one of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Michigan, or Minnesota.
- Democrats will flip Nevada. Sorry, Dean Heller, you are probably toast.
- This election will not be a Blue Wave. (For the purposes of this conversation, let’s define “wave election” as not only change in partisan leadership of the House, but decisively so as in 1994, 2006, and 2010.)
- Against almost all prognostications, Republicans will hold the House.
Factors driving election results will include #resistance fatigue, #deepstate fatigue, disgust over the Democrats’ juvenile circus antics during the Kavanaugh hearings, and their transparently disingenuous handling of the eleventh-hour vague accusation that Kavanaugh committed an attempted rape 36 years ago. Democrats have overplayed their hand at virtually every turn, and as a result, they will suffer at the ballot box. Whatever their misgivings about President Trump and the Republican Congress, voters will be reticent to hand the levers of power over to the circus masters of the left.
Sure, there are some anecdotal indicators that Republicans are in for a shellacking in November. The fact that Republicans have performed poorly in many special elections since Donald Trump took office, either winning by much narrower than expected margins or losing outright, has often been touted as a leading indicator. But in truth, special election results are unreliable predictors of general election results. Special elections get inundated with the full weight and force of the left-wing activist machine and therefore produce skewed results. During a general election when resources are spread thin, the left does not have this same advantage. The promising results of so many special elections are a sideshow to the main event and a source of false hope for Democrats looking for signs of what will happen in November. Oh, and by the way, as long as we are talking about special elections let’s acknowledge that in the most recent special election, Republicans just flipped a state senate seat in Texas which was last occupied by a Republican sometime in the late 19th century. This doesn’t exactly conform to the narrative.
High primary turnout among Democrats has also been cited as a predictor of the coming Blue Wave, but Republican turnout has also been high. In Texas where a Blue Wave is highly anticipated and Ted Cruz is supposedly on the verge of losing his bid for re-election to the Senate, the Republican vote far and away outpaced the Democrat vote. In this year’s Florida gubernatorial primary about 109,000 more votes were cast in the Republican contest than in the Democrat contest. Ohioans cast about 148,000 more votes in the GOP gubernatorial primary than were cast in the Democrat primary. Sure, Democrats have cast more ballots than Republicans in many states. But it is far from clear that primary turnout serves as a reliable indicator that Republicans are about to suffer a ballot box catastrophe.
This midterm election should favor the Democrats, as midterms usually favor the party not in control of the White House. But I suspect the American people are tired of the Democrats hysteria which is transparently absurd on nearly all fronts from Russia Russia Russia to their disgraceful performance at the Kavanaugh hearings. Democrats will reap the whirlwind and James Carville will be reduced to hiding his head with a trash can as he did on national television in 2002 when the promised Blue Wave also failed to materialize.
Published in General
I will go out on a limb, too.
#1 I predict there will be an election.
#2 I predict it might have some slight, barely-detectable influence on the behavior of the administrative state.
I like your predictions.
Not just because they match mine. I am hearing from friends (I do have many left-wing friends, due to my activities in various hobbies that have nothing to do with politics, so they have reasons to forgive me for being conservative) that even the reddest Trump-despising leftwingers among them are disgusted by this Feinstein/Kavanaugh maneuver. They have decided to punish their party by not bothering to vote. I have not discouraged this attitude.
I am also hearing from right-wing friends (who have no reason to forgive me, at least in the world of politics) that this is making them damn sure they will get to the polls in November. That goes for Trump fans, Trump-lukewarm, and Trump-nose holders. The Democrats have managed to make themselves look more despicable than Trump. Or perhaps Trump has forced them to reveal their true selves. One way or another, cat’s out of the bag.
I predict that at least one of your predictions will not come to pass.
I say given your level of confidence Republicans can just kick back and relax and watch the Dems waste their money and time. No need to worry. Easy street baby!
Silliness and wishful thinking. I’m not sure what will happen in the midterms, but I am certain it won’t unfold as you have outlined. And certainly not for the reasons you’ve advanced. That requires the …unlikely… assumption that the electorate shares your opinions in every particular.
I like the way you think. No idea if you’re right, but it’s a nice thought.
The first legitimate poll of likely voters in Texas has the undecideds down to 1% and the independents swinging heavily to Ted Cruz, giving him a 9 point lead before the first debate. He and Governor Abbott will win, but if they get the base plus independents fired up, they’ll hold the House seats.
AZ will likely flip McSally’s House seat back to Democrats, so a likely net -1 self-inflicted. She and Ducey will win, she narrowly, but I’m not sure if they will have any coattails.
I’m a once neverTrumper who will make damn sure I get to the polls in November and vote Republican up and down the line for just the reasons you say.
I so hope you are right!
I have no reason to trust my own judgement on the outcome of the election. However, I think it would be best to encourage complacency among the democrats and earnest motivation among the republicans. A few wins on popular priorities: Obamacare, defunding Planned Parenthood, border control etc. would go far in convincing people that there was a benefit to voting Republican. Other than deregulation, a strong economy, and Judges, I am not seeing a lot to show for Republican rule.
This strikes me as the most likely outcome in November regardless of party, historically voter disgust with dirty politics leads to apathy. I suspect we are going to have a great many voters simply throwing up their hands and staying at home, revolted by it all. As to who that will benefit, if anyone, I have no idea.
Good for you to make a set of clear predictions. I’ll comment on each one, making my own set of predictions.
If I were in Las Vegas and betting real money, I’d bet that the GOP breaks even in the Senate. So, we begin election day with 51 Republican US Senators and end the day with 51 Republican US Senators.
I agree on North Dakota; the GOP candidate wins that one. I don’t think the GOP wins in Ohio. Florida, Montana and Indiana? I think we lose all three, but I’m glad I not actually in Vegas betting real money on those.
I think our candidate in West Virginia is excellent. It’s just that Joe Manchin is more popular than your average West Virginia Democrat. So unfortunately, Manchin will get reelected.
I hope you are right, but I’m very skeptical.
Heller is campaigning hard. But I have to agree with you. The GOP loses Nevada.
I think the GOP wins in Tennessee and Texas, which don’t change the balance of power in the Senate.
I think the GOP wins the Missouri US Senate race. And although I really want McSally to win in Arizona, if I had to guess one way or the other, I’ll guess she loses.
So, the GOP picks up seats in North Dakota and Missouri but loses seats in Nevada and Arizona. The result is no change in the 51 to 49 balance of power.
I think the Democrats will gain 30 seats in the House, which means they will win the majority. But, again, I hope you are right and I’m wrong.
We’ll see.
I’m with you on this, Nat Ferg, and have been for six months.
This constant bombardment of leftist stupidity will bring Republicans to vote.
Deregulation, a strong (gangbusters!) economy, and judges are no slouch issues. Those are campaign promises signed, sealed, and delivered. I think people will vote for more of that.
Your point is well taken – if we just assume everyone else will do the voting for us and we can skip out on election day, we are in trouble. I suspect this is why Ted Cruz has been hyping the polls showing him in deep trouble. It’s good for fundraising and fires up the base.
Yogi was a quipper?
Moderator Note:
rude[redacted]
What makes you think we can get any of these policies passed? McCain’s gone, but so is our Alabama Senator. That’s much worse than a wash.
This outrageous conduct will fire up lukewarm Republicans and not fire up anyone who wasn’t already a four alarm fire anti-Trump liberal. I agree with your post, @nathanaelfergusonel. I knew Democrats would jump the shark at some point. There was just too much pent up rage on the left. Everyone sees how crazy they are now. We will control all 3 branches in January of 2019! There is much work to do, but onward to victory!
That must be your karate side speaking. O sensei might have just said, “Is that so?”
I predict continued ugliness. (And accusations of fraud.)
The Nevers fail to understand another of Berra’s quotes: “In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there is.”
If the Democrats win anything, I will be terribly disappointed in the common man’s failure to be repulsed by corruption and stupidity. So my idealistic prediction: Republicans will sweep everything.
I concur with this view. And if the Republicans want to walk away with the election ala Pacers in game 5 of the 2000 NBA finals (or the Lakers in game 1, I remember…boy do I remember), they will spend all of October publishing and broadcasting ads pitching the election as a contest between violent, potentially murderous psychos, the Democrats, and the sane people who will protect you from the psychos, i.e. the Republicans (well, anyone who is NOT a Democrat). Tie every House Dem to shooting of Steve Scalise, the assault on Rand Paul, the burning and vandalism of several major cities and make Surjit Malhi the face of California Republicans.
The conventional wisdom still predicts a blue wave. Ask President Hillary Clinton about the accuracy of the conventional wisdom.
A Republican Senate pickup in Ohio is extremely unlikely. Lots of people who like Trump like Sherrod Brown and will vote for him because of trade.
Pity about my state of Virginia. I believe many would have happily voted for Freitas and we may have had a chance at a Republican senator. However, primary voters went for the Trumpier than Trump execrable Corey Stewart. I will happily vote GOP for the House, however will not vote for Stewart even after the Kavanaugh freak show put on by the Democrats.
Excellent summary and I hope you’re correct. It can be dicey for folks on our side to predict what the left will do, after all logic often eludes them and they often vote on emotion. But I have a gut feeling here, their crazy base will turn out sure, but the mushy center-left over there has GOT to be getting sick of these antics….right?
Only if our side helps call attention to it. No need to overplay our hand, but we can’t just sit on our hands, either. But if their antics aren’t known to bother Republicans, why should they bother Democrats?
I live in Ohio. Care to share why you think Sherrod Brown will lose? I know how Ohio politics works, and I’d rule Brown as a very safe seat.
Ohio doesn’t kick out incumbents.
Bingo.