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Beware of the Demons
As this is my first post on Ricochet, I should let readers know whence I come. I am a British citizen who, after years of nomadic life working in banks in Scandinavia, the Middle East, Belgium and France, has decided to retire to Florida.
Having spent half my adult life in France, I follow with particular interest Claire Berlinski’s enlightened contributions to the Ricochet debate, and should like at this point, after the Brexit vote, the US presidential election and in view of next year’s French presidential election, contribute a thought of my own on all three.
Those who follow French politics will remember that in the first round of the presidential election of 2002, the Front National (led then by its founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, father of Marine), stunned pollsters and pundits alike by beating the Socialist Party’s Lionel Jospin into third place, thus earning a place in the run-off against Jacques Chirac. Of course, the Socialists and the Conservative RPR joined forces to give Chirac a landslide victory in the second round, but recent events show that the obvious lesson has still not been learned.
Demonizing a political opponent is quite simply counter-productive.
If you describe your opponent as racist, bigoted, or simply deplorable, not only will his (or her) supporters feel offended and then be more likely to mobilize on polling day, but they will also tend not to reveal to pollsters their real intentions for fear of ridicule (or worse). This leads to a ‘shock’ result (for some), speechless journalists (not necessarily a bad thing) and pollsters looking (more) stupid (than usual).
We saw this in June with the Brexit referendum, which the Remainers lost primarily because the Government, the BBC and The Guardian, aided by The Economist and (to my great distress) the Financial Times, assured them smugly that they could not lose.
It happened again earlier this month when CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, the New York Times and the Washington Post, having campaigned energetically, and with total disregard for any deontology dictating journalistic impartiality, for Hillary Clinton, assured the country that the result was a foregone conclusion.
The odds are that the same scenario will be repeated in next year’s French presidential election which will almost certainly end in a run-off between Marine Le Pen and, probably, François Fillon. But the concerted effort to cut the Front National off, which was hugely successful in 2002, may not work in 2017. Marine Le Pen is a far cannier politician than her father, a more likeable person and, above all, has a lot going for her : the growing feeling among the French that the migrant crisis is a threat to their national identity, not to mention an economic burden, a sneaking admiration of the British for having voted Leave (not that any Frenchman is going to admit that) and a general lassitude towards Europe which may well be magnified after the Italian referendum next month and the financial crisis which might ensue.
Whereas Nicolas Sarkozy and, to a lesser extent, Alain Juppé, might make a dramatic swing to the right in an attempt to win back supporters from the Front National, it would be totally out of character for M. Fillon to do so. But he is equally unlikely to attract the ex-Socialist and ex-Communist voters who are the principal reason why Mme Le Pen is doing so well in the polls, and the polls, as I believe I have demonstrated, are probably understating her support in the electorate.
Time will tell, but those who today sneer at ‘populist’ movements in Europe should beware. It may have escaped the notice of the chattering classes who read the New York Times, the Washington Post, Le Monde, The Guardian and Die Zeit, but Europe is now in a mortal struggle to conserve its cultural heritage, indeed its very civilization. European peoples are aware of this, even though their political leaders are largely in denial.
Beware of the ‘demons’.
Published in Politics
Hello @fidelio102, welcome to Ricochet, and particularly to Florida. We have a big state, but the FL Ricoteers do love a party. Watch out for meet-up posts and join us sometime.
Thank you for your insights! I look forward to more. :)
I couldn’t agree more, and I said as much over the summer. In spite of all the Hillary boosterism in the media, I felt there was just something in the air, and I knew there were more Trump voters than anyone knew. Brexit felt like the first domino falling. All over the world, the left went too far, and the people are now making a correction. The left did this to themselves by driving Trump voters underground with their supercilious ridicule, and I find it very satisfying. Will they learn from it? Probably not.
Welcome!
With your European and banking experience, I wonder what you think of Germany and Merkel. Even though I have never lived in Europe, the German situation seems more mysterious to me than the French situation.
It seems to me that Merkel has kicked the Greece problem down the road just about as far as it can go. It also seems that her “We can do it” invitation to “refugees” is the most foolish action I have ever seen a politician do. And yet her approval is 55%!
Welcome, fidelio. An excellent post, and I look forward to seeing more.
That’s a fine first post. Better than anything I came up when I first started here or since for that matter. Welcome from another Florida Ricochet member.
Good analysis, thanks.
Greetings.
Welcome, and an excellent post.
Welcome to Ricochet Mr. fidelio102.
Welcome. Soyez le bienvenu and thank you for sharing your valuable perspective. Jolly good!
Thank you @retaillawyer. Interesting question.
My own opinion is that Ms Merkel, basing her decision on the fact that Germany’s assimilation of Turkish ‘guest workers’ has actually worked pretty well, sincerely believed that a new influx of migrants could actually benefit the demographic problems of the German workforce. She was wrong.
What is more serious, perhaps, is that she perhaps unconsciously provoked Brexit for, at the same time as she was facing the reality of the migrant crisis, David Cameron was attempting his abortive effort to negotiate a New Deal with the EU. Had Ms Merkel not been distracted by the migrants, she would have certainly listened sympathetically to Mr Cameron and even helped him along a little. As it was, he returned home even more empty-handed than Neville Chamberlain, with the result that we know.
Hello and welcome.
Have you read Mark Steyn’s book America Alone? He predicts the rise of a “man on a white horse” in some of the European countries. He says it will probably happen too late to do any good.
What say you?
Very interesting. I lived in England for a wee while, so I am a little familiar with European politics. I really enjoyed this insight into France.
Is that a Biblical reference? Because in the Bible the white horse leads to the red horse. Tyranny leads to war and war to famine and taxes.
2 And I saw, and behold a white horse: and he that sat on him had a bow; and a crown was given unto him: and he went forth conquering, and to conquer.
I agree with your larger point — that “demonization” backfires when voters don’t quite see it that way (sometimes they do — Todd Akin).
I’m not sure that’s the big picture of this election, though, because both sides were doing the demonization. Trump was at rallies with crowds chanting “lock her up.” Difference was that voters found Republican charges against Clinton rather more convincing.
If Trump had been running against someone people basically perceived as decent, I think he’d probably have been toast. But he was running against someone the FBI was raising questions about the week before the election. At that point I don’t think a different rhetorical approach could have saved her.
In painting Trump with the colors they have, though, Democrats have probably made it significantly easier for him to win re-election if he doesn’t live up to their worst expectations.
It is, but I don’t think everyone using it lately knows it is.
Just one opinion – the biggest wild card in Europe is the rise of a populist Germany. It won’t be a Nazi movement, but the mere power of Germany will make any populist movement (or anti-status-quo movement) into the pivot against which all other forces will have to maneuver. I have to guess that Putin (like every other observer) appreciates the weight that Germany wields in Europe, and if he has any sense at all, he’s going to try and control (and maybe find some bankrolling?) for any German movement so that it comes out in his favor.
Europe is an intriguing chessboard right now.
Well, it is Steyn after all. He might very well be thinking that way.
Good point, but the main populist party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is still far from the strength enjoyed by the Front National in France.
Putin’s gameplan I will revert to in another post.
I think–at least in the popular vernacular, we think “pale horse” for the rider of the apocalypse. When we say “white horse,” it’s like a reference to white hats like Roy Rogers and Audi Murphy.
‘Course, Clint might’ve had something to do with that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFEoAS0wYVM
Welcome, Fidelio102. If your Golden Years in FL finds you stumping down to the Keys, let me know. We’ll bait a hook, throw a line in, then smoke cigars and drink until the inevitable monster bites the hook.
When they talk about a man on a white horse, this is the sort of thing I think they’re referencing:
It is hard to talk about the fear of losing western civilization because so many liberals seem to either think it can not be lost, or has actually caused the poverty and unhappiness of others.
But it scares me that the Europe of my ancestors won’t exist anymore, and even the history will be extinct in the rush toward desegregation of the continents. Norwegians are indigenous to Norway, isn’t that okay?
I don’t even understand the logic that seems to be the norm that European countries need diversity. America is actually a new place built by immigrants, diversity makes sense here. But if Germany isn’t mostly genetically German people there won’t be a German culture any more… or Denmark, or Sweden… I really just can’t figure out the logic of so much immigration there.
I suspect that if immigrants were flocking into Syria from Europe instead of the other way, Syrians would not see it as a positive and accommodate other’s religion at the expense of their own.
It’s hard to say that, because I don’t want to be called a White Supremacist, it isn’t about being supreme it’s about those cultures going extinct. Why is it racist to have historical populations native to a country? Can’t you respect others and co exist without losing your culture?
Does anyone judge Japan because their island is still mostly Japanese?
Welcome and your first post is a great start to many lively conversations. You will find a number of members with solid and deep experience in a number of fields and locales. It is always good to add more to the mix.
The push for a second Brexit referendum- possibly in the form of a vote on the final terms of departure, or alternatively a vote in Parliament which could override the decision of the people, is growing. The same establishment which tried to lead the people by the noses to vote to remain is still largely in place (except for a handful of high profile individuals). I take all this very seriously because the Irish people twice voted to reject Treaties which were designed to increase the powers of the Union. On each occasion we had a second vote and the majority “did the right thing” the second time. On a local note, there is a strong post-colonial lack of confidence here which makes it commonplace for the people to be told that we would be the “laughing stock of Europe” if we didn’t vote the right way. The US and UK and, I think, France don’t suffer from this syndrome.
One can only imagine the political/ constitutional crisis that a reversal of the Brexit vote would unleash, which might itself pale into insignificance if the apparently pathetic attempts to change the outcome of the US Presidential election were to succeed.
Hi Fidelio, welcome.
We’ll know by the end of the day whether it’s Fillon or Juppé. Anyone who says he knows what the French electorate will do today, no less next May, is exaggerating his foresight. By then, a lot may have happened.
I agree with you that the candidate can’t afford to campaign on the idea that the NF’s supporters are deplorable. But pandering to them or their voters will backfire. One reason Sarkozy did so poorly, I think (though I can’t prove it and have no evidence) is that he spent his campaign making the NF’s case for them. Why would you want him if you could have Le Pen, the real thing? Voters who object to Le Pen on principle found him revolting; voters whom he convinced thought, “Why not just vote for Le Pen, if these ideas are okay?” People who loathe the FN ended up loathing him, too, because he has no principles. And a significant segment of the Left will defect to the FN because some percentage of socialists can always be flipped to national-socialism — it’s harder to flip them to liberalism.
Obviously it would be a bad thing to pander to FN supporters – you can tell because it has the word “pander” in it. But it is surely OK to address their legitimate concerns. The lesson of 2016 seems to be that in a democracy, eventually, it will be the electorate rather than the elites who are the arbiters of legitimacy.
Agreed — that’s exactly what Steyn was talking about.
Thanks. Won’t forget.