DC Crime

DC's major crime rates over the last couple of decades have been on a general downswing, including last year. This is a return to normal trends after a very bad 2023. I don’t really understand the president’s plan to reduce crime with federal resources, nor can I offer any ideas about deployment, outreach or investigative uses of those resources. This is a rather typical situation in the Trump era—a grand gesture and possibly extra-legal use of executive powers followed by an ill-conceived Democratic response, which in this instance (much like opposing the deportation of criminals), they find themselves opposed to reducing crime.

One Democratic talking point is that DC crime is down because of great leadership, so intervention is not warranted. The general downward trend in crime over the last few decades appears to be mostly a result of changing demographics. In 2000, the black population of DC was 60% of the total. Now it is roughly 40%. Between 2000 and 2020, the city lost 60,000 black residents and gained 50,000 white residents, who now also comprise about 40% of the population. If criminal activity occurs disproportionately among black residents (an unfortunate but undeniable statistical reality), then replacing tens of thousands of black residents with tens of thousands of mostly upscale white residents necessarily impacts crime rates, regardless of the quality of law enforcement leadership and policy. Large-scale gentrification (such as the areas near the Nationals' ballpark and southwest DC) has transformed neighborhoods that I remember as being no-go zones in my youth.

Here is a general primer on DC crime geography:

On the left is a map of DC wards from which the city council is elected and a general crime map on the right with high crime areas in dark color. Ward 3 is the “great white ward,” with upscale, mostly white residents. No major retail or office areas, no large public housing. Ward 4 (and part of 3) contains the “black gold coast”, which is mostly black residents in upscale housing. This is the traditional home turf of the city’s black doctors, lawyers and business owners -- the original power center in the first years of DC home rule. Notice the low crime rates in these two wards.

Ward 5 is mostly working class, mostly black, with a lot of government employees. Cross-border crime involving Maryland’s PG County is not uncommon on the east side. It contains Catholic University and peaceful Brookland but also some unfortunate sections on its western side.

Wards 7 and 8 are low-income and home to much of the city’s violent, black-on black crime and gun violence. Ward 8 is the political base of former mayor Marion Barry. In the 1978 election, Ward 8 effectively displaced Ward 4 as the electoral power center. These wards always lead in crime stats. It is also where cops' radio traffic coined "the usual suspect" as shorthand for a young black male, medium height, medium build, dark clothing. Use of this term was soon officially banned by higher-ups.

Wards 2 and 6 include the tourist-intensive areas, retail and offices that provide prey for street criminals.

Wards 1 and 2 contain the “U Street Corridor” with the intersections that are the traditional starting point of major rioting, as well as including the perennially high-crime Shaw. Those wards are also home to the city’s largest share of Central American Immigrants, some of whom have been stepping up to contribute to the violent crime stats.

A small historical digression: DC’s first elected mayor, Walter Washington, intervened heavily on the zoning issues surrounding the location of proposed stops for the Metro system under construction. He insisted on a mix of residences, shops, offices and restaurants around each Metro stop to make it a neighborhood center. He envisioned a city with a number of vibrant, distinct, economically and racially mixed neighborhoods. The large developers hated that plan, especially since it would prevent concentrations of new, high-priced office space downtown. Newly elected Mayor Barry also hated that plan because his political future would be jeopardized by the emergence of a slew of middle-class, racially integrated neighborhoods across the city. Ever the political master, he told developers he would kill the zoning plan in exchange for campaign cash and an (entirely empty) promise to build low-income housing in Wards 7 and 8 “when suitable sites became available.” He then told his base that he had shaken down The Man on their behalf in his first few weeks in office. The promised housing was never built. Naturally.

Barry was the quintessential Democratic con man, keeping his constituents poor and dependent while convincing them he was on their side. A majority of his top aides were indicted for corruption, but like the Roadrunner, Barry smoothly evaded the near-obsessive pursuit of the US Attorney’s office until the infamous "the bitch set me up" recorded crack pipe moment.

The black middle class of DC is invariably overlooked by the media and politicians. They are far more likely to be crime victims than are whites in new condos in gentrified areas. Their kids are given a lousy education in dysfunctional public schools. They are mostly homeowners who try to keep their neighborhoods clean and pleasant. (I shared a cheap apartment in Ward 5 over 50 years ago). I know that Trump (like many others) is focused on white professionals being attacked near Capitol Hill, but politically, demographically and morally, a comprehensive focus on programs to improve and protect the lives of DC’s black middle class and safely educate their kids is a political innovation that is long overdue. Maybe the National Guard is not the answer.