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Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

Each week Henry Olsen, columnist and senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, will talk about the presidential and congressional races with leading political journalists and analysts, people who are out in the field and won't give you media spin. Find out who's leading the pack and who's an also-ran, with Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen.

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Henry Olsen
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Episode length: 35m

The Trump Tornado and Danger in the Dust Bowl

There's good news and bad news, Toto: We are still in Kansas, but it's not the safe state we'd grown used to. With the midterms less than a month away, and reports confirming the GOP's move to divert funds to tightening races in the agricultural belt, Henry opts to fly solo this week to survey the windswept field ahead of the battle. Considerable movement has occurred in response to the president's bold maneuvering after returning to office, particularly among the Independents and MAGA-lite Republicans who helped elect him. But is a complete leveling inevitable? Not so, says Henry, who offers a lesson from the 2022 midterms that Republicans have curiously left on the table so far. Plus, Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers has a new ad that reveals an important detail about this cycle's swing state playbook. Can't wait til Thursday for Henry's election insights? Subscribe to his weekly newsletter, "Margin of Victory," for an early look at his latest thoughts on the approaching midterms.

Episode length: 58m

All About Exit Polls

Americans are often in a hurry, always looking for ways to save time. Yet back in the olden days, whenever Americans held an election, the public had to wait until every ballot was tallied before an official announcement of the results. Though that remains the method for squeaker contests, election-day reporting outlets strive to stay ahead of the curve wherever possible. Enter the exit pollers. Henry sits down with Joe Lenski, Executive Vice President of the survey research firm SSRS and co-director of The Voter Poll. Joe's here to explain how his team goes about sampling actual ballot-casters so the American people can get quicker (yet still accurate) calls on election night. Plus, keeping predictive power in mind, Henry reverse-engineers the generic ballot from the past three midterm elections to gauge who will win the House tug-of-war in November. And we take in Susan Collins' clever pitch to her Red Sox country voters about Yankee Chuck Schumer's attempts to influence the contest in Maine. Catch Henry's latest PostOpinions piece to see his midterm model. While you're there, subscribe to his weekly newsletter, "Margin of Victory," for invaluable insights every Wednesday!

September 2026

Episode length: 1h 4m

Reasonably Random Thoughts on Polling

The polling business has undergone profound changes since the start of the 21st century, especially in its response to new technology and the altered habits of potential respondents. We often hear from representatives of the media or university end of polling, but today Henry sits down with a guest who has skin in the game: professional political pollster Jon Lerner. The two discuss how these new entrants have changed the playing field, address the live question about the relative value of modeling, and consider alternative methods for addressing demographically uneven response rates. Plus, Republican candidates are publicly breaking with Trump in political advertisements and Henry rants about why they're doing so and what this portends. And speaking of ads, we've got a trio sampler of effective approaches to kick off general election season: one positive, one negative, and one that's just plain funny. To stay on top of campaign season, sign up for Henry’s weekly "Margin of Victory" newsletter. You'll receive indispensable insights every Wednesday for the price of...free!

Episode length: 57m

Americans Won’t Tolerate a Loser

After last week's tour of competitive House races, it's time to look to the Senate battlegrounds. Though nobody can predict the future, our friend Kyle Kondik brings his Sabato's Crystal Ball to assess this cycle's key toss-ups, leans, and tight holds—the races that will decide who controls the upper chamber. He and Henry dart about the map to consider the latest on the campaigns in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Maine, Iowa, Ohio, Texas, and Alaska. Plus, since we live in an era of models rather than polls, Henry advises on how to look under the hood for a firm's methodology before cranking up to take the results to the bank. Be sure to sign up for Henry’s "Margin of Victory" newsletter for his election insights every Wednesday!

Episode length: 49m

Rate Changes and Coordinated Expenditures

The primaries are nearly finished, and Labor Day is behind us—that means it's officially midterm season! To mark the occasion, Henry catches up with Cook Political Report's Erin Covey to discuss the races that look competitive now in mid-September and how she'll gauge contests as we approach November. From consideration of surprising events and the movement of outside expenditures, Henry and Erin dive deep into the circumstances that might yield a good election return for either party in a midterm that's more of a toss-up than polls might suggest. Henry has tonight's RNC midterm convention in mind as he rants through the kind of messaging Republican candidates should adopt for this unfavorable cycle. Plus, he thinks through one of the great puzzles of the current system: If the parties are increasingly doing the heavy lifting on ballots, what should we make of the record sums being spent on candidates? Be sure to sign up for Henry’s weekly newsletter, Margin of Victory, for his election insights every Wednesday!

Episode length: 1h 2m

Take Nothing For Granite

With all due respect to grammarians, when we at Beyond the Polls think of New Hampshire, hard facts and rock-solid political analysis from our friend Dante Scala are foremost in mind. In anticipation of Tuesday's Democratic primary, he and Henry discuss the tectonic political shift in the Granite State now that Jeanne Shaheen is retiring—along with the new presidential primary ordering that has pushed New Hampshire back in the Democratic Party's queue. Plus, Henry looks ahead to the midterms, finds a map made relatively favorable to Republicans, and warns Democrats aiming to take the House about the unique challenge they face. And he homes in on an ad in the New Hampshire 01 primary where Maura Sullivan accuses opponent Stefany Shaheen of nepotism. Be sure to sign up for Henry’s weekly newsletter, Margin of Victory, for his election insights every Wednesday!

August 2026

Episode length: 50m

Dissuadable Disapprovers?

With the primary results in from the most competitive states, we're entering the calm-before-the-storm season of this year's midterm election. But rather than letting their guard down, top election analysts are bracing for another wacky cycle like the one that defied forecasts in 2o22. NBC's chief data analyst, Steve Kornacki, returns to Beyond the Polls to discuss how current conditions resemble those from four years back, and how he braces for the unpredictable before heading into live coverage as ballots pour in. Plus, Henry offers messaging advice for Republican strategists—identifying the target audience and the pitch for staying the course—ahead of the Republican midterm convention coming up on September 9th. He also finds a high vantage point in an Amy Acton ad that shows how the Ohio gubernatorial race could become competitive again.

Episode length: 51m

A MAGA Contest, Southern Cackalacky-Style

South Carolina Republicans are heading back to the voting booth for the Senate runoff to select their nominee. Their choice is between Ralph Norman, a self-described MAGA outsider who has represented the state's Fifth Congressional District since 2017, and Darline Graham, the Trump-endorsed incumbent appointed last month following the sudden passing of her brother Lindsey. For a survey of this sudden showdown in the Swamp State, Henry is joined by Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report. They consider how difficult it may be to call the race, as even in MAGA country, Trump may find his movement prone to rebelliousness. Plus, Henry dives into the Florida primary results, parses this cycle's polling errors, and looks at a Ralph Norman ad asking South Carolinians whether his opponent has anything more than a name.

Episode length: 58m

Heat Lightning Over the Sunshine State

Florida's political environment has transformed profoundly over the last few decades. Following its mid-decadal redistricting, the state is preparing for an unusually high number of close contests in next week's primary, especially on the Republican side. Peter Schorsh, founder and editor of Florida Politics, joins Henry to forecast the scattered storms hanging above the state's panhandle (CD-02), Flagler County (CD-7), Tampa Bay (CD-14), the contest among political misfits over the southwestern frontier (CD-19), and the chaotic scramble across the way for redrawn territory in the densely populated South Florida metro area. Plus, Henry breaks down Francesca Hong's narrow loss for statewide office in Wisconsin, and considers what it means for the DSA. And he takes a look at an effective use of AI-generated advertising in Catalina Lauf's run for Byron Donald's Florida House seat. Be sure to sign up for Henry's weekly newsletter, Margin of Victory, for his insights every Wednesday!

Episode length: 58m

America’s Dairyland or the Progressives’ Fairyland?

The Wisconsin state motto is one word: "Forward." And after Tuesday's primary in Michigan, we're reminded again that the progressive left has the momentum in the Democratic Party. To dive into what this left-wing insurgency means for Wisconsin, Henry brings back the Badger State's premier election analyst, Craig Gilbert. Craig explains how Democratic Socialist gubernatorial candidate Francesca Hong benefited from opponents' imploded campaigns, moving from fourth (at best) to the top of the field. He and Henry look to the coming general in Wisconsin 3, where Rebecca Cooke is expected to challenge Republican Derrick Van Orden in a rematch. They also consider how the Democrats' leftward lunge may give Tom Tiffany a better shot than previously thought, given his rural House district (Wisconsin 7) and Trump's low approval. Plus, Henry heads to Michigan and beyond to explain that the DSA's moment has come—before imparting some advice to the ambitious within its ranks who might seek the presidency. And, finally, we inspect another ad from Darline Graham, who seems ready to state some positions. Be sure to sign up for Henry's weekly newsletter, Margin of Victory, for his election insights every Wednesday!

July 2026

Episode length: 40m

Wolverines in Sheep’s Clothing?

A primary-palooza is days away, with contests set for August 4th in Kansas, Missouri, Washington, and Virginia. But all eyes are on Michigan, a bellwether state with ambitious representatives tugging hard at it left, right, and center. Henry's here to shepherd us through the state's long list of battleground congressional districts. And, of course, he closely inspects the turnout trends and insider behaviors that portend a good day for Abdul El-Sayed and the DSA — but what will all this mean for the general? Tune in to find out! Plus, Henry glances at a trio of ads featuring candidates Darline Graham (South Carolina), Rebecca Cooke (Wisconsin), and Troy Jackson (Maine).

Episode length: 55m

Everybody’s Got a Type

This series is all about pushing past the dichotomies of American politics to better understand why voters prefer X to Y, Yea to Nay, or Red to Blue. Our friends at the Pew Research Center are of a like mind, so we asked Director of Politics Jocelyn Kiley to join Henry to discuss the center's new political typology: Beyond Red vs. Blue. Tune in to understand Pew's methods and analysis of the American electorate's breakdown, ranging from Leftward Progressives to the No Apologies Right, with an Order and Opportunity Left, a Tuned-Out Middle, and a Pragmatic and Polite Right among those in between. (Find the quiz here to see where you land!) Plus, Henry darts about the map as the race to control the Senate gets even more interesting: To Maine, where Democrats seem settled on Troy Jackson to replace Graham Platner; to South Carolina, where the president has nudged Darline Graham Nordone — sister of the late Lindsey Graham — to run; and then on to the American West, where Democrats are hoping to slip like-minded Independents past decidedly Republican-leaning voters. And we take a look at a few ads from the Wisconsin gubernatorial contest to compare how Progressive candidate Francesca Hong attempts to define herself ahead of the August 11th primary against spots from a Republican PAC that hopes their party faces her in the fall.

Episode length: 55m

AZ and the Wild Card Races

Partisan trends being what they are, it's increasingly rare to see an election actually decided in November. The parties matter more, the candidates a bit less. But that divide doesn't seem so big in the Grand Canyon State, and Arizonans like a maverick. Chuck Warren of Breaking Battlegrounds joins Henry to discuss the flamboyant characters vying for congressional districts 1, 5, and 6, along with the story behind Andy Biggs' surprisingly easy path to a general against incumbent Governor Katie Hobbs. Plus, Henry breaks down the rules of the exceedingly interesting Senate elections coming up in Maine and South Carolina following the dropout of Graham Platner and the passing of Lindsey Graham. And the Democratic establishment strikes back with a couple of ads targeting progressive disrupters.

Episode length: 34m

The Zig-Zaggy Leftward Lurch

The Democratic Socialists of America have laid their plans, are on the march, and have been making steady gains. But established orders aren't toppled in a day... and there's trouble in paradise. Henry rants his way through the fall of Graham Platner, Abdul El-Sayed's edge in his race for Michigan's Senate seat, and Melat Kiros' victory in Colorado's 1st district. Plus, we're back with an ad of the week as Wesley Bell defends his seat in Missouri in a rematch against Squad member Cori Bush.

Episode length: 38m

What Americans Say About The American Way

America's birthday is almost here, and the semiquincentennial milestone imbues the annual celebration with special significance. For this reason, Henry sits down with the American Enterprise Institute's Karlyn Bowman to discuss her latest report, America at 250: Surveying Change and Continuity on Civic Values, a grand survey comparing American sentiments today with those of respondents nearly 30 years ago. Tune in to hear the surprising—and mostly reassuring!—findings on what's changed and what's stayed the same when Americans reflect on what it means to be American.

June 2026

Episode length: 54m

The Ballot Balancing Act

Americans all rightly make a great deal about our democracy. But the partisan element sets in quickly, and the incessant debate extends even beyond the candidates and initiatives on the ballot. Stephen Richer (a fellow of the Cato Institute and Harvard Kennedy School and former Maricopa County recorder) joins Henry to discuss past and contemporary efforts to address fundamental concerns about voting access and election integrity. Plus, we take two bites out of the Big Apple for this week's rant and ad of the week. Mayor Mamdani and his team of Democratic Socialists of America members won big on Tuesday, and Henry frames this wave in a historical context at the top and ends with a close look at how this group applied digital media savvy to get its shot at influencing the future.

Episode length: 53m

It’s Up To You, New York!

Start spreading the news: The Empire State is hitting the polls next week, and the election is gonna be something wild. Cook Political's Erin Covey is our tour de force guide through the many candidates vying to represent the city's distinct locales, including a "Commie Corridor," which bumps up against the Wall Street district, which lies just south of the newlywed Upper East/Upper West Side "You've Got Mail District." Let's just say these neighbors have varied opinions on AI, Israel, the proper minimum wage and paid family leave. Our duo also hops over the Hudson to look into a couple races of interest to NY Republicans before making a quick trip to Maryland 5, where a 24-way race has brewed up to replace retiring Steny Hoyer. Plus, Henry breaks down this week's results from Georgia and Alabama, and considers how Trump's current approval numbers may affect once-safe GOP Senate seats.

Episode length: 57m

Southern Bellwethers?

We've got Senate runoffs in the Deep South next week, and that means we already know what's in the bag... right? Wrong! Jessica Taylor, Cook Political Report's Senate and Governors Editor, returns to update us on a couple of surprisingly close Republican primaries. Tune in to hear about an Alabama outsider's formidable challenge to the Trump-endorsed candidate and the Republicans hoping to unseat a relatively strong John Ossoff in the increasingly purple Peach State. The duo also looks ahead to the next big Democratic Senate primary in Michigan. Plus, Henry jets around the far corners of the country for a rant on Graham Platner's win in Maine, Spencer Pratt's loss in Los Angeles, and how ranked-choice voting might leave Congressional control uncertain if races in Alaska and Maine remain tight. And we take a look at a trio of uber-expensive ads for a California gubernatorial candidate you may not have even heard about.

Episode length: 52m

Mapmaker, Matchmaker

Though election watchers generally have to make peace with selfish motives and unpleasant truths, there is more to democracy than the cynics would have you believe. Sean Trende is back for a chat on this theme as it applies to the much-discussed redistricting wars. In 2020, the Virginia Supreme Court tasked Sean to help draft the commonwealth's congressional map—the very map that state Democrats unsuccessfully tried to replace this year. He and Henry talk through the labor involved in drawing fair lines, and the unique challenges of doing so in an age of partisan gamesmanship. Plus, we had a primary bonanza on Tuesday! Henry rants through what we can glean from the results still trickling in from California, Republican Zach Lahn's surprise victory in Iowa over his Trump-endorsed opponent, and a few more progressive insurgents breaking through establishment Democrats' trenches. And if you haven't already, be sure to sign up for Henry's "Margin of Victory" newsletter to stay ahead of the curve this election season.

May 2026

Episode length: 1h 8m

This Year’s Model

America is a change agent. Just this week, we witnessed another sign of that as unstoppable MAGA momentum pushed notorious Ken Paxton to a walloping victory over party loyalist John Cornyn. So how does one gauge public opinion in such a dynamic terrain? To answer that, Henry sits down with James Kanagasooriam of the research firm Focaldata. The duo discusses the history of polling and the current methods for addressing new challenges, such as response rate collapse and demographic biases toward politically engaged voters, and how these fit into the timeless task of interpreting the results. All of it adds up to a must-listen lesson on how some pollsters innovate to make their boldly accurate calls. Plus, Henry examines the Texas runoff results and looks ahead to exciting primaries coming up in California, New Jersey, Iowa, Montana, and South Dakota.

Episode length: 54m

Waving Cane in the Lone Star State

Texas is known for super-sizing every endeavor, so amid another hyper-polarized election season you can bet on a spectacle with an ensemble cast down south. Scott Braddock of Quorum Report joins Henry this week to give us the inside scoop on the Cornyn-Paxton Senate runoff and a close look at the characters vying for redrawn House districts around the major metro areas. Plus, Henry examines this week's primary results, paying special attention to the victory for polarization — evidenced by Thomas Massie's decisive defeat at the president's behest on the one hand, and the big win in PA-03 by new Squad member Chris Rabb on the other.

Episode length: 59m

Peachy Primaries and Commonwealth Commotions

We've got seven primaries coming through this week, and that means we're on the move! First, Martha Zoller takes Henry on a tour of Georgia's crowded Republican contests to vie for John Ossoff's Senate seat, House districts, and the Governor's mansion in Atlanta. Next, we jump up north, where Erin Covey returns to give an in-depth analysis of key races in Kentucky and Pennsylvania. We're adless this week, but Henry has much to say about the Republican breakthrough beyond the gerrymander trenches and the implications it may have for House control come November.

Episode length: 53m

Safe Senate Seat Scuffles

The old rhyme promises that May brings the flowers, and sure enough we're seeing early bursts of the election season bloom! This week, Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report guides us through three surprisingly close Republican primaries in the reliably red South. Get to know the candidates chasing open Senate seats in Alabama and Kentucky, and take a gander at Bill Cassidy's feverish fight in Louisiana to survive Trump's retribution for his 2021 vote in favor of Trump's impeachment. Expect strong weather and prepare for runoff. Plus, Henry looks at Tuesday's bloodbath in Indiana and Ron DeSantis's gerrymander and sees signs that Trump's bare-knuckle style might secure another title for the heel. And lastly, we glance at dueling ads between California's top Democratic gubernatorial candidates.

April 2026

Episode length: 50m

Beggars Can’t Be Hoosiers

When the Trump administration launched its controversial mid-decade redistricting effort earlier this term, it was met not only with howls of outrage from Democrats but also with steadfast opposition from Indiana Republicans. Now, the president and Governor Mike Braun are weighing in on the state senate primaries, endorsing challengers over the defectors. To take us through the twists and turns of this exceptional drama, Henry sits down with Brian Howey of State Affairs Pro Indiana. Plus, Henry dives into Florida's own GOP-friendly demography to consider whether Governor DeSantis will have better fortune in the map-making endeavor. And we examine an ad trifecta from Democratic super PAC Priorities USA that may portend the future of targeted political messaging.
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