Will the Iranian Regime Finally be Overturned?

Iran is not a stranger to protests by its people, although the last major protests were three years ago. But there are aspects of these protests that might be different, and might finally push the people over the edge toward regime change and freedom. The conditions are ripe for major disruptions.

The continuing protests add more pressure on the government struggling to contain widespread discontent. Iran is facing a weak rial, extremely high inflation and international sanctions. It is also running out of water, and power shortages are widespread and frequent.

The short June war with Israel also exposed the government’s weakness and its inability to protect itself from infiltration by Israeli spies. It devastated Iran’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles programs and shattered its air defenses.

The financial aspect of the chaos in Iran can’t be overstated. In addition to depleting their savings, people are struggling with rising costs. Since the war with Israel in June, the rial has lost 60% of its value:

According to the state statistics center, the inflation rate in December rose to 42.2% from the same period last year and is 1.8% higher than in November. Food prices rose 72% and health and medical items were up 50% from December last year, according to the statistics center. Many critics see the rate as a sign of approaching hyperinflation. Reports in official Iranian media that the government plans to increase taxes in the Iranian new year that begins March 21 have caused more concern.

The question is, are these protests any different from protests of the past? Or will the people back down under the attacks initiated by the regime to stop the discord?

One expert from Iran states that the crisis extends far beyond the economic troubles:

Gissou Nia, a human rights lawyer and Iran expert from the Atlantic Council think tank, sees the economic crash as the catalyst for the protests, but not as its core issue. ‘As with the protests since December 2017, there's often an economic catalyst,’ she told DW. ‘But if we listen to the slogans, and the extent of the protests, it's about profound dissatisfaction with the Iranian regime and the desire for that regime to disappear.’

It appears many Iranians no longer see the country's economic collapse as a crisis that can be rectified, but as a systemic failure of the regime of aged revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The merchants closing their businesses and shutting down the bazaar also sends a highly defiant message:

The fact that these protests began in the bazaar is a historic shift. For decades, the bazaar has been the economic lifeline of the system, and the anchor of its political stability. The market is seen as a political early warning system and a potential multiplier of the protests. A strike by merchants in Tehran's Grand Bazaar played a crucial role in the Islamic Revolution of 1979, which overthrew the monarchy. Strikes in the bazaar have hit not just the food supply, but also the conservative backbone of the Islamic Republic. Nia described it as the ‘lifeblood of Iran's central markets. The shop owners and others gathered to protest because the current economic situation is no longer tenable.’

There are also experts who say that the regime is starting to crack down on the protests earlier to prevent them from gaining strength. But the effort to “get ahead” of the protestors may be interpreted as a sign of weakness of the regime. At this stage, too, blaming foreign propaganda for driving the protests no longer carries any weight.

Thus, there are several signs that this series of protests has more strength than protests of the past. That fact is what drives those who want to see Iran free of its totalitarian regime:

Mostafa Tajzadeh, the imprisoned Iranian politician and prominent dissident, said to The Telegraph: ‘Now the time has come for all those who want a prosperous, free, and independent Iran to speak with one voice and call for the separation of religious institutions from political institutions, for the clergy to hand power back to the people, and to return to their traditional base in the seminaries.’

Is Iran finally ready to abolish the tyranny and step into the modern world?

[Originally published in American Thinker]