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Every year it’s the same old same-old. At budget time they explain to the American people how spending lots more money tomorrow actually saves money over 10 years, and anyone who can’t see that is just not fiscally savvy enough to understand the nuances of macroeconomics and the magic elixir of growth. We are going to grow our way out of debt!!! Today, we have the White House asserting that this year’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” will … “reduce deficits by at least $6.6 trillion over the next decade.”
Yeah. Right.
My first question is, “Reduced compared to what?” They are notorious for “reductions” that are really smaller increases than otherwise forecast. So, according to some reports, spending was forecast to go up by 100. But they are only raising spending by 95. That counts as a reduction of 5. Is this hypothetical 6.6 trillion more of the same?
Their forecasts, predictions, and promises are useless. None of them matter. There is one, and only one, place where the economic rubber meets the road: the Debt Limit. The debt is the actual real-world outcome of all their pie-in-the-sky prognostication. And it can’t be spun or argued around. It’s why, despite the annual promise of how “the bill pays for itself,” we are now 36.2 trillion dollars in debt, up from 5.5 trillion in Q1 2000.
So ignore their predictions about revenues or expenditures, deficits or taxes. They are only words, and they’ll swear to whatever they think you want to hear. Watch what they say and do regarding the debt limit. That gives away the game. And when Trump declares the debt limit should be abolished, it tells you the truth about what he really believes will happen.
Discussion (44)
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Same way as always. Their lips are moving.
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You're not forgetting, I hope, the untold trillions we'll be raking in from tariff-paying foreigners, money we can use to reduce the national debt.
That's the way the OI tells it, anyway, and he wouldn't lie to us, would he?
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You mistake me for someone who cares what the SF thinks.
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That is a typo there. Probably Q1 2023?
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Not really. The Debt Limit is just a law and Congress passes many laws. The Treasury can even work around the Debt Limit by minting special coins. The only reality is the bond rate. The market does not lie and interest rates are THE TRUTH. The only government manipulation is monetizing the debt, but that raises the money supply and inflation and interest rates. There is no escaping the bond market.
I heard Ron Johnson talking to Charlie Kirk. Ron was saying we needed more dialog and not one big bill, but two bills and that Trump and the House were wrong. Turns out what Ron was unable to say is that he wants a big bill in 2025 and another in 2026, but he was unable to say it coherently. How can the GOP be so bad at communicating? Are they all dumb? Are they liars? Are they just trying to sabotage America?
Here's the actual rules:
1) there is one budget bill allowed to pass each year with reconciliation, which cannot be filibustered. This can only address non-discretionary spending in *future* years.
2) the president can send rescission bills at any time to reduce the *current* appropriations. These cannot be filibustered.
3) there are appropriation bills for each of the 13 departments each fiscal year. The appropriations must conform to the budget bill.
Why is that so hard for members of Congress to explain?
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