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The Truth about Epstein: The Best Explanation

Saint Augustine
@SaintAugustine
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The Truth Is Out There GIFs | Tenor

An inference to the best explanation should, as much as possible, do three things:

  1. It should explain as much as possible of what needs to be explained.
  2. It should be something we already know about independently of the inference, or at least it should not make things more complicated than necessary.
  3. It should be as good as any competing explanations.

Some of the major things to be explained concerning Jeffrey Epstein are these:

  1. There are reports of failures of prison security, like cameras going out, when he died.
  2. Much information about him still has not been released, although it was supposed to be.
  3. A US Attorney was told that Epstein "belonged to intelligence" and should be left alone. (Here's a direct URL to the story in Wikipedia.)
  4. Dan Bongino, a man I trust who is now in a position to know, says that he killed himself.
  5. He did not say that Epstein acted entirely alone and without any form of assistance.

Among the things we know are these:

  1. The FBI has a history of (illegally) collecting information on people and using it to achieve its ends. (See the backstory on Judge Silberman.)
  2. Super-bad guys are not happy. (See all great films, literature, religious writings, and philosophical writings.)
  3. A person might kill himself because the people who had leverage on him left him no choice. They could be threatening a more painful death, threatening a more painful life, or threatening to kill his brother or someone else he still cares about. See the iconic scene from The Godfather Part II:

So here's what happened to Epstein:

  1. He ran a nightmarish sex-and-extortion ring.
  2. He was happy to share his information with intel agencies.
  3. In return, they let him live.
  4. Eventually, Epstein went far enough that the harm of letting him continue outweighed the benefit of getting new information from him. So the intel people who handled him saved all their information and let the law finally have him.
  5. Shortly afterwards, it was decided that his continued living had also outlived its usefulness. So the intel people who handled him let him die.
  6. He killed himself--with some encouragement and/or cooperation.

Did his handlers do some real good with his information? Probably. Did they do some real harm? Probably. Was it worth it? No.

Were intel agencies not just putting up with him? Did they actually make him? I think that is possible, but the explanation does not require it.

What was the specific despair or threat that motivated him to do himself in? I don't know.

Did his handlers directly arrange for his death, or did they merely not prevent some other enemy from arranging it? I don't know.

When will we get more intel, and how much will be kept hidden? Will some future Silberman ever get a look at all the leftovers? I don't know.

What about reports of injuries on his body that don't seem like self-hanging, or of the difficulty of hanging oneself in that cell? Well, you can't expect every one of his last conversations to be quasi-civilized cigar-smoking sessions with Robert Duvall. I wouldn't be surprised if someone roughed Epstein up a bit while making him a final offer, or even if someone showed up to help arrange the sheets.

I think this is, more or less, the truth about Epstein.

Is there something it doesn't explain? Is there some other explanation that explains more? Does the other explanation make things more complicated than this one does?

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Discussion (116)

  • Percival@Percival

    I'm going to approach this a little bit differently.

    1. Bongino has been a skeptic as to the official narrative from the very beginning.
    2. Bongino has subsequently said that he's seen "the video" and now he's convinced that Epstein killed himself.
    3. But the camera into Epstein's cell was malfunctioning. There was no video.

    Or was there? It's a Federal lockup. Cameras are cheap. If I were setting up camera coverage of an incarceration facility, would I limit coverage to one camera per cell? No. I'd want to know who was in the hallways as well. So perhaps that is the video that Bongino is referring to. Epstein being escorted to his cell, the escort retreating immediately, then no further outside contact until Epstein's body is discovered.

  • Saint Augustine@SaintAugustine
    ReplyingtoPercival

    Percival (View Comment):

    I’m going to approach this a little bit differently.

    1. Bongino has been a skeptic as to the official narrative from the very beginning.
    2. Bongino has subsequently said that he’s seen “the video” and now he’s convinced that Epstein killed himself.
    3. But the camera into Epstein’s cell was malfunctioning. There was no video.

    Or was there? It’s a Federal lockup. Cameras are cheap. If I were setting up camera coverage of an incarceration facility, would I limit coverage to one camera per cell? No. I’d want to know who was in the hallways as well. So perhaps that is the video that Bongino is referring to. Epstein being escorted to his cell, the escort retreating immediately, then no further outside contact until Epstein’s body is discovered.

    Those details all seem to me to make sense.

    What conclusion do we get from them--same as mine?

  • Percival@Percival
    ReplyingtoSaint Augustine

    Percival (View Comment):

    I’m going to approach this a little bit differently.

    1. Bongino has been a skeptic as to the official narrative from the very beginning.
    2. Bongino has subsequently said that he’s seen “the video” and now he’s convinced that Epstein killed himself.
    3. But the camera into Epstein’s cell was malfunctioning. There was no video.

    Or was there? It’s a Federal lockup. Cameras are cheap. If I were setting up camera coverage of an incarceration facility, would I limit coverage to one camera per cell? No. I’d want to know who was in the hallways as well. So perhaps that is the video that Bongino is referring to. Epstein being escorted to his cell, the escort retreating immediately, then no further outside contact until Epstein’s body is discovered.

    Saint Augustine (View Comment):

    Those details all seem to me to make sense.

    What conclusion do we get from them–same as mine?

    Independent of yours. I'm trying to justify Bongino's conversion and his brief reference to the video that apparently he's seen that the rest of us have not.

  • Sisyphus@Sisyphus
    ReplyingtoPercival

    Percival (View Comment):

    I’m going to approach this a little bit differently.

    1. Bongino has been a skeptic as to the official narrative from the very beginning.
    2. Bongino has subsequently said that he’s seen “the video” and now he’s convinced that Epstein killed himself.
    3. But the camera into Epstein’s cell was malfunctioning. There was no video.

    Or was there? It’s a Federal lockup. Cameras are cheap. If I were setting up camera coverage of an incarceration facility, would I limit coverage to one camera per cell? No. I’d want to know who was in the hallways as well. So perhaps that is the video that Bongino is referring to. Epstein being escorted to his cell, the escort retreating immediately, then no further outside contact until Epstein’s body is discovered.

    There were other cameras in the space that did not directly pick up what happened, but provide indirect evidence. Or so he says.

  • Percival@Percival
    ReplyingtoSisyphus

    Percival (View Comment):

    I’m going to approach this a little bit differently.

    1. Bongino has been a skeptic as to the official narrative from the very beginning.
    2. Bongino has subsequently said that he’s seen “the video” and now he’s convinced that Epstein killed himself.
    3. But the camera into Epstein’s cell was malfunctioning. There was no video.

    Or was there? It’s a Federal lockup. Cameras are cheap. If I were setting up camera coverage of an incarceration facility, would I limit coverage to one camera per cell? No. I’d want to know who was in the hallways as well. So perhaps that is the video that Bongino is referring to. Epstein being escorted to his cell, the escort retreating immediately, then no further outside contact until Epstein’s body is discovered.

    Sisyphus (View Comment):

    There were other cameras in the space that did not directly pick up what happened, but provide indirect evidence. Or so he says.

    I missed that. I only saw the interview with Patel and Bongino. It was an off-the-cuff comment that drew a lot of fire immediately.

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