Odds of Trump Jail Time Have Increased

I assumed at first that the outrage surrounding the sham verdict created such a potential risk of backlash that the additional injustice of jail time would be omitted in favor of alternative sentencing. Having accomplished the mission of applying the "felon" tag, they would go no farther. I now think I was wrong about that.

It is slowly dawning on even MSNBC viewers that abortion is no longer a federal issue. Biden's mental decline is increasingly obvious. Biden’s record is so appalling that it is impossible to run on it, so some variant of the Trump-as-Hitler issue is all that is left. I thought the new ads touting Trump’s (brand new) criminal record and alleged hatred of democracy were absurd but I was wrong. Polling shows that a small but significant share of independent voters can be persuaded that the convictions make Trump unfit.

Biden has already committed $50 million to these TV ads. I now regard it as a certainty that the White House will communicate (or has already communicated) to Bragg and Merchan that some jail time is required because the campaign needs a visual to go with the ad campaign. Shots of handcuffs, fingerprinting, or, ideally, Trump out of his business suit in an off-white/grey Riker's prison uniform will be pure visual gold. Making the entire campaign about Republicans trying to explain the substance of the legal abuses versus Democrats using imagery and slogans to "defend the rule of law" is a viable path for Biden.

A competent and ruthless Democratic party leadership would also be preparing to bribe/threaten/sandbag VP Harris to step down and replace her with a saleable, vetted replacement whose theme would be integrity in government, respect for law, and the "preservation of democracy" (ideally a black, female, military veteran, former cop with zero sex scandals) while also being the de facto actual nominee given Biden's condition.