Quote of the Day - Children

You must have four children. One for Mother, one for Father, one for Accidents, one for Increase. – Winston Churchill

The future belongs to those who show up for it. If you have no children, they will not be part of it. Groups that avoid children die out and leave only lost memories for posterity. Yet in the last 50 years, among a significant section of the population, having children has become declassee. Children should be seen but not had. Or, if you absolutely must, have one and leave it at that.

One of the reasons for that has been the growth of the Zero Population Growth movement, which holds that the increasing human population offers a threat. It supposes that increasing the population at the rates seen in the first half of the 20th century will inevitably lead to starvation and poverty.

This has proved a pernicious myth. The world's population was one billion in 1900, three billion by 1960, and 8.3 billion today. Had the predictions of the 1970s come true, we would expect increasing levels of abject poverty and hunger today than in 1970. Instead, the percentage of the world's population living in abject poverty is lower than it was in 1970 and 1900. It turns out that more human capital increases innovation and productivity.

I am not advocating having families of eight to twelve children (although if that is what two people desire, I see no harm in it). However, Churchill's formula for family size seems more reasonable than a goal of two children per couple - and far more reasonable than voluntarily limiting family size to one child.

Yes, some people cannot have children, and others should not have children. Yet the mathematics are inexorable. If there are fewer than 2.3 children per family in each generation, the population curve eventually reaches zero. Well before that level is reached, society collapses. Society should be encouraging, not discouraging, families of three or four children.

More people around means more smart people around, which means more ideas, more innovation, and more productivity. (Yes, it also means more dumb people around, but that does not reduce the number of good ideas - and in a free market economy, good ideas eventually outperform bad ones.)

Ultimately the choice between having children or not having children is an expression of your view of the future. If you are optimistic about the future, you choose to have children. If you are pessimistic, you choose not to have children. If you look ahead to tomorrow, you have kids. They are an investment in the future. If you live only for today, you skip having them. They tie you down today.

As for me? Janet and I had three because we could not have four. We did not know about Churchill's formula, but we agreed with it anyway.

Was it a good investment for the future? Oh, yes. Absolutely.