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If you are wondering if there is a ceasefire in place between Israel and Iran, your guess is as good as anyone’s.
It all began when President Trump celebrated a ceasefire between the two countries on Truth Social:
‘CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED!’ ‘Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL.’
For starters, does anyone understand the time sequence in this process: when they started, when they ended? Of course, when Iran violated the ceasefire and Israel responded, President Trump was pretty upset:
‘We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f--- they’re doing.’
I think they know precisely what they are doing—Iran may stop temporarily, but remember its mission is to destroy Israel; and Israel is not going to accept their attacks without a response. In deference to Trump, Netanyahu authorized a more modest response to Iran’s violation.
The cease-fire between the two countries had gone into effect early Tuesday after the two sides exchanged final volleys of attacks. The IDF said it had attacked missile launchers in northern Iran shortly before the cease-fire was to take effect, while announcing that there had been several missile launches from Iran toward Israel early Tuesday. Israel said on its X account that at least four people were killed and 22 injured in the attack on Be'er Sheva.
In spite of these violations, Trump says the ceasefire is still in effect.
Here’s my inexpert opinion. I think Iran will keep violating the ceasefire, and Israel will respond. Eventually, I think that Israel will have had enough and destroy as much of Iran as it possibly can.
When the Iranian people realize the regime is hopeless and helpless, maybe they will rise up.
Or, instead of Israel disappearing, maybe we will see Iran wiped off the face of the earth.
Discussion (17)
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My take is that neither Israel or Iran will escalate, when some random thing happens. The Big Dog has spoken. Behind the scenes, I am sure China is telling Iran to stop risking their primary oil supply.
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Trump has already sent the Swedes and Norwegians some potential dates from his calendar for his Peace Prize presentation. He will not take kindly to Israeli actions until the prize is in hand.
US-Israeli-Euro actions to curtail Iranian support for the Houthis, Hamas and Hezbollah should not be considered violations unless on Iranian territory.
The Iranian people now under the umbrella provided by the Great Satan Donald might see this as a good time for regime change.
If you want everything to make sense, you are on the wrong planet.
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Perfect observation!
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I never understood the phased-in nature of the ceasefire as Trump described it. Iran was supposed to stop shooting immediately, but Israel was allowed to keep pounding on them for another 12 hours? Why would Iran agree to that? Or am I misreading it?
Setting that aside, I think Iran will abide by the ceasefire with the same good faith they have demonstrated toward every other diplomatic agreement they have entered into. And Israel will respond as circumstances require.
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