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Missiles from the UK and US are now escalating matters, including the use of condemned anti-personnel mines. Turns out that there are no real red lines in war. The US/UK change in posture is going to change things, one way or another. The US has abandoned its embassy in Kiev.
At the same time, on the ground, Russia is winning ground - though it is slow going, and the casualties are crazy-high. And back home the economy may be reaching a tipping point: I include quotes from the Tweet below. What they are saying, out loud, is shocking. I doubt that ALL of these people will fall out of windows.
It looks like the war, which has been more-or-less a stalemate for quite some time, is about to go in all kinds of chaotic directions. I highly doubt Russia uses nukes - if they fail, then their deterrent vanishes.
The next 60 days are going to be crazy. Russia could collapse. So could Ukraine. Nukes might actually be tried. Strap in.
The quotes presented here came from the “Russian Economic Forum 2024” that just ended in Chelyabinsk.
“You said that big business has a safety cushion and will be able to survive for a long time. In fact, under the current conditions, if we continue our investment program, we will run out of money within six months. We are presently closing current projects, and we are not even thinking about subsequent investments. The current interest rate on loans simply eats up all profitability. The enterprises represented here have up to 70% of the Soviet-era worn-out production capacities. But we cannot invest in their renewal and modernization. Loans are very expensive.” - Maria Ovechkina, Head of the Financial Resources Department of the Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works. “We have basically run out of people. If we talk about the manufacturing industry, then companies say - people are leaving in droves, going to the military-industrial complex. Our problem today is simply to retain those who are there, who are left. We do not see any light in terms of the development of the labor market. The situation here continues to worsen... not stabilize, but worsen. Therefore, many are forced to pause the development of production capacities. There is simply no one to work there.” - Kirill Tremasov, Advisor to the Chairman of the Central Bank. "Russian enterprises competing with Chinese ones are holding on with all their might. As a result of the [next] increase in the key rate, we will get a situation where key sectors of machine manufacturing will collapse. Already in the first quarter of next year, many companies - transport manufacturing and others - report a decrease in potential output of 30% or more. Why? Because no competitive business can work with loans at 27% per annum.” - Andrey Gartung, CEO of the Chelyabinsk Forging and Press Plant. “Whoever – unfortunately or fortunately – has a state defense order, is now subject to criminal liability for failing to fulfill it. Therefore, whether 20% or 30%, everyone will come and take out a loan. Well, so as not to go to jail.” - Andrey Klepach, Chief Economist of the state corporation VEB. RF. “I apologize, but we know what kind of gift businesses will get for the New Year: a key rate of 23%.” - Alexander Shokhin, President of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs. “We need to balance supply and demand. But if we balance it as a whole, then [this is what we will get]: by pressing the bank rate, consumer demand, and all production, we will only retain the production of basic goods and services. Those that can be created at this high rate... Ultimately, we may even cool inflation, but we will only be left with simple goods, without robotics and other high-tech industries.” - Ivan Kutsevlyak, First Deputy Governor of the Chelyabinsk Region. “Since 2023, three to seven representatives of Chinese companies have participated in all tenders. They win 50% of tenders and bring orders but without production in Russia. To summarize, production is not developing: European suppliers have been replaced by Chinese ones with higher prices and lower quality.” - Olga Aleksandrova, Financial Director of the Uralkran Group of Companies.
Discussion (47)
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BTW, formerly-Eastern Europe is really afraid of a Russian invasion. To me, that would be impossible beyond maybe the Baltics. Russia is desperate and spent, and thus unpredictable and dangerous. But they simply lack the forces to mount another front in this war.
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Russia has lots of people, and Iran, China and N Korea are willing to supply arms.
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In a way, it feels like Biden/the Deep State are looking to expand this war in a way that cannot be undone.
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Russia would need time to regroup and digest what they've taken so far before. Poland is using that time to become the largest military power in Europe. It's been a few centuries since that state of affairs occurred. I don't know that Russia would ever invade, though, as long as it can turn Poland back into a client state. It probably wouldn't have invaded Ukraine, either, except the Ukrainians soundly rejected its attempt to turn it into a client state.
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