War is Being Transformed by Drone Mercenaries

Russia and Ukraine have expended vast amounts of resources in a brutal war of attrition. The Ukrainians have fewer people to lose, of course. The Russians, who had assumed that the "winning" tactic of WW2, throwing people into the front lines, was also going to work in Ukraine... are running out of people to lose.

Both sides have increasingly, and to an extent only previously imagined in science fiction novels, come to wage war using unmanned systems. Airborne drones get most of the news because they are highly visible, effective, and make for great viewing. But seaborne drones (essentially smarter, long-range torpedoes) and tracked or wheeled robots have become the default for new initiatives.

Which in turn transforms the war. It may still be a war of resources, but those resources are now measured in technological capabilities (including communications for coordination and control) and the funding to deliver the highest number of drones to the battlefield.

The economics support the use of drones to take out more than just armored vehicles - supply vehicles, all kinds of storage facilities, and even individual soldiers are considered legitimate targets. AI is also growing in the space, with the drones becoming increasingly autonomous and independent as they learn (whether networked or solo) to sort out and prioritize every element of movement, targeting and attack.

What this means for the future is not easy or obvious to predict. Nevertheless, here are some ideas that come to mind:

1: Infantry reluctance is much less of a factor. A solid percentage of soldiers, for psychological reasons, refuse to discharge their weapons or deliberately aim to miss. Drones have no such reluctance. I'd wager that, for example, the "efficiency" of bullets will go up as a result.

2: Stopping drones of all kinds is the priority for all traditional armies. If they cannot be stopped, then the future of most traditional manned vehicles like armored vehicles and tanks is in doubt. In this scenario, the drones increasingly replace individual soldiers for direct fighting.

2b: Drone countermeasures, to my mind, are always at a disadvantage. Drone attacks can always be like guerrilla campaigns - relying on surprise, able to come from any angle, hit-and-run, and even snipe from a distance. With any terrain at all, countermeasures will have to also rely on drones (to perceive anything not within line-of-sight - perhaps because it is just beyond the next hill or tree).

3: It is not clear what technological differentiators will separate a military superpower from anyone else. If all drone tech is commoditized, and AI and Starlink (or equivalent) can be had by all, then any country (or even passionate breakaway province) can fight on equal footing, as long as they can source the drone. Once this new drone world saturates the battlefields, will Israel or the US or Ukraine be superior on the battlefield against a Hezbollah or Houthi? It is no longer about F-35s against spears or even SCUDs, after all.

What do you think?