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The talking heads are abuzz today with the results of a special election for the Iowa State Senate. A state senate seat - Senate District #1 - formerly held by a Republican swung to a Democrat. And this in a district where President Trump won convincingly in November. Why is an Iowa local election a national story? Firstly, this breaks a Republican supermajority in the Iowa legislature. Going forward, Iowa Republicans will need at least one Democrat to join them to pass legislation. But more importantly, the results are being seen by Democrats as a harbinger of things to come in the mid-term elections. For once, I think the talking heads might have a point.
I dug into the interwebs to pull out the precinct-level votes for this special election and compared them to the precinct-level results from the 2024 presidential race. The results are, frankly, astonishing! As you'd expect, the overall vote totals were far fewer in yesterday's local special election than in the 2024 presidential race. But...oh, and is there a but...in 6 of the 14 precincts that make up Iowa Senate District #1, MORE Democrats voted in the special election than in the presidential election! And in a 7th they came within a handful of that mark. That is unheard of. Details below:
OK, Kamala Harris was a dreadful candidate who inspired nobody. Fine, that's part of it. But more than that, you are looking at a VERY motivated Democratic Party. They understood the importance of the moment and showed up to vote. The results in those 6 precincts turned control of the Iowa legislature. 328 more Dems turned out to vote. 643 fewer Reps. That's a 971-vote swing. The Rep candidate lost by only 797 votes. Overall, compared to November, Dem turnout was down by 33%. But Reps were down a whopping 60%! If Dems can carry this kind of energy into the midterms nationally, and the Reps cannot manage to match it, things could get ugly.
Discussion (6)
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Ouch! You would think Republicans would be more motivated to vote than what we saw in this race.
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I have zero proof so I shouldn't say it but ....
Getting that sort of turnout(significantly more than the Presidential election) in a state special election is a little hinky ...
If the economy is going well in November of 2026, and the (D)'s are still on running on this rudderless weird wokey nutjob craziness the (R) will keep majorities in both chambers.
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Remember it’s not just those precincts. Overall, compared to the November, Dem turnout was down by 33%. But Reps were down a whopping 60%!
Look at Georgia’s US Senate and let’s get to work.
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I don't know how voters feel about the Iowa state legislature, but nationally, I believe a lot of people who have voted for Republicans for decades are disenchanted with the party.
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It will be interesting to see how my State Senate Special election does in Orlando. I voted early, but its on Sept 2nd. It's been Dem after Gerrymandering. It will be Dem because it met to be one but it will be interesting to see how close it is. Like you would expect a 60% win for Dems since its been almost two years since the last election. But there has been a ton of residential new construction in this district. So it might actually be narrower. Who knows.
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