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I do not support a counterattack on Iran. Last night was a catastrophe for the Ayatollahs. They lost major face in terms of their display of military power. It was a ridiculous display of impotence. >300 missiles, ballistic missiles and drones - each celebrated with wall art as a demonstration of Iran's ability burn Israeli cities and crush the Israeli military and they hit a single base and hurt a single child.
This is showing that they *can't* issue a direct attack. Their allies just got left out to dry.
For this reason, a counterattack would serve no strategic purpose. Israel already won the messaging war.
With one exception....
Bombing the entrances to the Basij armories in major cities would require only a few missiles in only a few places. However, it would open up significant arsenals to the civilian population who could then take things into their own hands.
That would be a game changer.
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Discussion (80)
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That would seem to assume the Iranian people know what really happened. But, do they?
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Iranian TV is showing footage from the Texas wildfires as evidence of their success!
But they aren't who really matters. Hezbollah now knows that their sponsors aren't going to save them. They probably approached this with the same attitude they approached 10/7 - if it looks promising, we'll step in. But they didn't.
Saudi, Bahrain, UAE, Jordan, Egypt - all saw a display of force based on the much vaunted Iranian missile and drone problem that was actually a display of impotence. Their fear of current Iran - non-nuclear Iran - just precipitously dropped.
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Jordan participated in the shooting down of incoming Iranian missiles aimed at Israel. That is the game-changer.
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Without Israel, the existence of Jordan as a country would be over.
I believe the same goes for the entire existing order in Egypt.
Neither can accept Iranian success.
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Couldn’t agree more. It’s just that things that people have known for years are playing out in the real world now.
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