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Investment advisers know that volatility is inherently bad. Even though logically, the trend line matters a lot more than any short-term volatility.
I see this in engineers all the time. They think they are logical, but they always seek to minimize risk without also balancing it against reward. This is because people, as Heinlein put it so beautifully, "are not rational animals. We are rationalizing animals."
So I have numerous friends and acquaintances who refuse medical treatment because they cannot be confident of the outcome, even though any risk/reward or expected value analysis yields a clear recommendation. Instead, they get stuck, unable to make a decision.
The same is true in relationships. People try to map out every possible future before they take a major plunge. It makes no difference that the vast majority of people who have long marriages have encountered and survived events that they admit they never could have predicted.
I see this even here on Ricochet: concerning humanoid robots/AI home defense and with a post I wrote on peptides, quite a few people instinctively rejected change. Not because they could balance the potential outcomes, but because uncertainty leads to analysis paralysis.
Nevertheless, not making a decision is still making a decision. This is logically and obviously true. But most of us, most of the time, cannot internalize this and act accordingly.
I recognize that my perspective is not common. And perhaps the "wait and see" crowd has an argument that I have not considered. But if I am right, is there any way to help people overcome this tangible limitation in human decision-making? Or do we have to settle these things the old-fashioned way: with flapping arms while chanting "bock bock"?
Discussion (39)
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I like to think that I minimize some risk so that I can attempt a very risky.
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This is true. There is a virtue called prudence that involves making a decision/acting at the correct time. Sometimes you should wait, but sometimes you must act. The virtue of fortitude gives confidence to face uncertainty. To paraphrase Colin Powell, if you wait for enough information to be certain, you have waited to long.
As an engineer, I attempt to quantify risk, but use Hope to fill in the gaps. I really do struggle where there is a continuum of risk/reward. How do you optimize across a continuum?
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First Rule of Wing Walking: Never let go with one hand before you have a firm grip with the other.
Second Rule of Wing Walking: Every once in a while you have to let go with both hands and jump.
Third Rule of Wing Walking: Survival depends on knowing whether Rule Number 1 or Rule Number 2 is operative.
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My point is that refusing to make a decision is not the same as minimizing risk.
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Rush agrees.
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