(Completely) Amateur Observations on the Oval Office Debacle

Steve wrote a fascinating post that generated some great discussion. Steve may be right about most of his points, and he knows a lot more about this sort of thing than I do. But I see this differently. I wonder if my take has crossed anyone else's mind.

First, let me point out that when someone does something that looks stupid, it's often because they're in a very difficult situation. They're desperate, there are no obvious sensible choices available to them, and they jump at the first opportunity to change things that they see. Whether it makes any sense or not. What choice do they have?

Zelensky is in a very, very difficult situation. First of all, he's leading a country in a war that he simply cannot win. Without ENORMOUS help from America, this war would not have lasted this long. Even with America's help, Ukraine is struggling to hang on. Secondly, how does Zelensky intend to retire? He's 47 years old. He has a young family. Where will he go? What will he do? Putin has a long memory. The chances of Zelensky dying of old age are very small. What about his family?

He's in a very, very difficult situation.

My point is that I think Zelensky walked into that meeting planning to do exactly that. Make a scene. Stand up to the most powerful man in the world. Get the video clips he needs to play on the TV stations at home, over and over again.

He agreed to sign the agreement the next day. I doubt he changed his mind that fast. He had already planned to sign the agreement because it made sense for Ukraine. Once America has a financial interest in Ukraine, like mining operations, then that will provide Ukraine with a much better security guarantee than some piece of paper with a signature on it. He has to sign this.

But first, he needed to show the world that he's not afraid of anything - not even the feared Donald Trump.

I could be wrong. But I think Zelensky is in a hopeless situation and is desperate to somehow demonstrate that he is a force to be reckoned with.

And I think it worked. It helped some, at least. If I'm right about his goals for the meeting, I think it went as well as it could have for Zelensky.

Then he signs the agreement. But he doesn't look like he was pressured to do so. He stood up to Trump. Even if he did give him exactly what he wanted.

I'll give you one more guess - a bit more off the rails, but I think it might possibly be true: During the meeting, when Zelensky was lashing out, I think Trump may have suspected that Zelensky was playing the exact game I describe. I suspect that's one reason Trump got so angry. He knew he was being played. At least, he suspected he was, but he wasn't sure enough to say so at the time.

Again, I'm not sure about that last part. But Trump is really good at this sort of thing, and is very experienced in all sorts of negotiations. He's probably seen this play before. Heck, he's probably done it himself at some point in his career. You negotiate with whatever cards you have available at the time. Few people understand that better than Trump.

I have no idea what I'm talking about. Neither does anybody else. We don't know what was said before that meeting, or what information the principals have at their disposal. We're all speculating.

But when I saw that meeting, this was my first thought.

What do you think?