Iran: It’s Worse Than You Think

Last night I had the opportunity to watch a discussion by two leading experts on the Middle East—Ray Takeyh and Elliott Abrams—joined for a short period by Senator Tom Cotton, and hosted by the Tikvah Foundation’s Jonathan Silver. To say the least, I was stunned and alarmed by their views, and realized that if the world doesn’t respond skillfully and soon to the machinations of Iran, the results could be deadly. I’d like to summarize the key points I learned and share my thoughts on how the road ahead could be dangerous, but it could also transform the Middle East.

One of the most alarming points that the world needs to note is the nature of Iran leadership. According to Abrams, the country is being led by a new, small elite which is even more ideological, vicious and dangerous than the mullahs we’ve known. He described the Iranian attack this past weekend as reckless and evil. Both Takeyh and Abrams believe that Iran’s intention was to kill as many Israelis as they could; the leadership were not interested in grandstanding.

Tom Cotton made some interesting points as well. He confirmed that the U.S. efforts to stop the Iranian program was a joke and pursued “for show.”

As a result, they all believed that a tougher Iranian policy was required, that “existing assumptions no longer apply.” They didn’t point to Joe Biden directly, but his coddling, empowering, and investing in Iran will lead to further disaster if he continues.

Especially fascinating was that Abrams said that Israel’s assumptions about Hamas were wrong, too. They didn’t expect Hamas to act as they did on October 7, and were unprepared for that vicious attack.

All the guests agreed that Israel must move forward with its plans. It must invade Rafah. It must at some point attack Hezbollah. And it will need to attack Iran in a way that sends a message that they are not going to simply “take the win” as Biden suggested. Otherwise Hamas will assume that Israel has been cowed by Iran and they may feel empowered by that assumption. The Israeli attack will depend on how the Israel War Council assesses what is required.

An interesting side note came from Abrams who noted that Pesach was approaching; he wondered if the Israelis would wait for the next couple weeks before attacking Iran, implying a delay might not be wise.

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What are the conclusions that I drew from this discussion? First, Biden has been manipulated by the Iranian regime for several years, and Obama before him, and the longer he continues to acquiesce to them, the greater the risk will be for the entire Middle East and perhaps the world. Second, the potential for limiting Iran is significant, given that Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Jordan joined in attacking Iran’s drones and missiles; they have known for a long time of Iran’s threat to the Middle East, but may just be realizing the power they could demonstrate by joining with one another and with Israel. Third, a new assessment must be conducted to get a true reading on the menace Iran has become; that assessment should include the possibility for regime change. Next, Israel must give the impression that it’s listening to Joe Biden, but also must continue to act independently. If shipments of military equipment are cut back (and I doubt Biden will do that), they’ll find a way forward.

Over the years I have found Elliott Abrams to be extremely credible and clear-eyed. Although I haven’t followed Ray Takeyh, his expertise on Iran was clearly appreciated by Abrams.

These assessments are timely and I hope there will be a way to put pressure on Biden to finally act aggressively against Iran.

Before it’s too late.