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I have decided to swear off using any rhetoric that suggests that the 2024 outcome will be/was secured through cheating. I am taking a page from Robert Barnes who on his Sunday podcast with Viva Frei tamped down concerns that the election this year will be as sketchy as 2020. The reasons, as I recall them, basically come down to there being enough reform since 2020 to close down the rampant opportunity that existed then under the Covid rules, discounting the Dominion computer vote-flipping scare (Dominion is not operating in enough counties to make a meaningful difference), and Republican embrace of early voting on levels equal to or exceeding Democrats. He also discounts the "overseas" ballot stories. People overseas are either your military-assigned voters or expatriates who left probably because they don't embrace progressive government. Barnes doesn't see a surge in Kamala voters in overseas ballots. And he thinks the voting issues are getting enough visibility this time around to keep cheating to a lower level than in 2020. He also thinks that voter turnout will be below 2020 levels.
Does this mean that cheating doesn't matter? That we should accept that citizen-controlled government is a fiction? No, but we need to understand why neither political party seems to actually solve the problem: Perceived cheating is useful.
Think about it. You are a professional political operative -- office holder, activist, or consultant. You need money, but you don't want to be accountable to the people who give you the money. Which is better for you: "I did a poor job and I lost" or "I did a good job but they cheated"? The latter is an absolute gift to the political operative. And it serves as the foundation for future money appeals to be able to get results "beyond the margin of cheating".
So there you have it. It serves no good purpose, from a political operative point of view, to have fully fair, free and auditable elections. You can complain about it, but you can't get to the desired destination from here.
So what are you supposed to do? Stop talking about, or at least stop adding fuel to the fire that burns around any "stolen" election. I am getting the sense that President Trump will win re-election, maybe even the popular vote. When that happens the Democrats will revert to the 2016 "illegitimacy" argument. Representative Jamie Raskin has famously talked about how they will try to stop the certification of the Electoral College in that event. This will likely be with a background of BLM-style riots/burnings in various cities.
If Kamala Harris wins there will no doubt be talk by Republicans of "cheating" in the same way as occurred in 2020. But will there be any different outcome than what occurred in 2021? No. Ironically, the steps that were taken in the aftermath of the 2020 election will make it more difficult for the Democrats to challenge a victory by President Trump.
I really don't know what's going to happen, but I do know that talk of "cheating" is unproductive and not useful to the electorate. But it is useful to the people that most voters have come to loathe. So I am not going to do it.
Does this mean I am acquiescing to an illegitimate progressive regime? Well, yes and no. When you are subject to tyranny, the method of the tyrant's obtaining power is of academic interest but has no day-to-day utility to those suffering under it. I will resist in whatever way is prudent, useful and in accord with my moral compass. But complaining about how they cheated to get there will have no marginal utility.
And if we stop talking about it now -- obsessing about how horrible it will be if (when) it happens -- we will help take down the energy level in the event that it is the Democrats who want to talk about cheating instead of the Republicans.
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Discussion (38)
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Then talk about how our election system does not instilled confidence in the system, that we need to do better, that only citizens should vote, that voter registrations should be renewed like DLs, that Motor Voter must be abolished, that the mailed in ballot must be witnessed by PO employees like passport applications or by a notary, that proof of citizenship must be part of a DL…..
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You don't need to overthink or over-explain this: The reason to lay off the cheating, stop-the-steal talk (both for this election and yes, the last one too), is it's the rhetoric of losers. Not just in politics but in life, externalizing a failure and regarding it as being cheated is just an excuse for not trying harder, getting better, appealing to more voters, or shoring up your offensive line.
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I had the opportunity to hear Robert Barna speak at Hillsdale College after 2020; I don't know if people know that he's a pollster and very skeptical of most pollsters (although he speaks well of Trafalgar, who I catch on Hannity now and then at the end of that show). I think Barna is onto something and all you related makes a lot of sense to me. I think I'll follow your lead and assume that Trump will win "fairly enough"; complaining all the time gets old!
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I disagree. One of the political parties (Republicans) talks about efficiency of government and honest elections. Campaigning on those issues gives purpose to election reform. Florida has good elections without fraud and with timely results. Competence is popular with a small majority of voters.
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I am willing to believe many voters chose poorly and got what they deserve. Also, I still believe there is cheating. What I do t know is did it change things. Multiple registrations to same address/nonexistent residence, illegals voting, and other things happen. That’s cheating. Democrats have been doing it for years. What is the alternative? Believing over half the country hates me, my choice, and the agenda I want those in power to pursue? If those in power don’t seem concerned enough to care, I owe them no feeling of confidence in the system.
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