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It seems like a new world order might be emerging, and Donald Trump has some influence over it. I thought it would be interesting to discuss whether a new world order is emerging or perhaps the old order is just evolving a bit. And if there is a new order, what will it look like?
The current world order (from a Western perspective) is called the Rules-based International Order. It emerged after WWII and had two opposing hegemons (USA & USSR) and a common reserve currency (US dollar). NATO is a symbol of this order. Grok summarizes it as:
The "rules-based international order" (RBIO) refers to a system of global governance where international relations are guided by a set of agreed-upon rules, norms, and institutions rather than purely by power dynamics or unilateral actions. It’s a framework that aims to promote stability, cooperation, and predictability among nations. The term is often used by policymakers, especially in Western countries, to describe a world where international law, treaties, and organizations like the United Nations (UN), World Trade Organization (WTO), or International Monetary Fund (IMF) shape how states interact.
At its core, the RBIO includes principles like:
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Sovereignty: Respecting the territorial integrity and independence of nations.International Law: Adherence to treaties, conventions, and legal norms (e.g., the UN Charter or the Law of the Sea).Multilateralism: Solving problems through collective institutions rather than unilateral force.Human Rights: Promoting universal standards, though interpretations vary.Free Trade: Encouraging open markets and economic interdependence.
This evolved after the end of the Cold War to have a single hegemon (USA), strong globalization, and the emergence of China as a world power. This post-Cold War order has seen the stagnation of manufacturing and wages in the West and the emergence of a ruling class that has prospered during the stagnation. It has also seen the rise of non-state actors (Al Qaeda) and the expensive promotion of democracy in the Middle East. America is straining under the weight of national debt to provide security guarantees for Europe.
It appears that Trump is leading an effort to remake the current world order. This new new order is perhaps a rekindling of the Monroe Doctrine. Trump has moved to reduce China's influence in the Americas. Notably with the change of operation for the Panama Canal, but also with the aggressive anti-fentanyl actions against China working with/through Mexico and Canada, and warm relationships with the anti-socialist governments in Argentina and El Salvador. If Trump had his way, everything from Alaska to Greenland and below would be under the influence of the USA and not that of Europe or China.
In Europe, Trump's threats of withdrawing military security have awakened long-sleepy Western powers to the need for self-defense. The former Axis powers of WWII (Germany & Japan), long occupied/defended by the USA, are looking to utilize their manufacturing prowess to improve their defense capabilities. France is hinting at providing nuclear weapon protection for EU countries and Poland is rolling out mandatory military training for all men. If the reason for NATO was "to keep Germany down, the US in, and Russians out," I think Trump's vision for Europe is more a Washingtonian "let those nations be their own peacekeepers" with a Nixonian "Russia should be European and not partnered with China." Trump is partnering with willing leaders in the Middle East to establish pockets of peace and prosperity. Trump is also using tariffs for both mercantile reasons and to nudge others to join this new order.
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Discussion (33)
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The Russia "out" part was more Communist Soviet Union "out" than non-communist Russia. The USA has never been at war with Russia while having fought two World Wars against Germany. As soon as Russia overthrew communism, the Cold War was over. Yet, here we are being best buddies and trading partners and defenders of Germany while Russia is our great bad enemy. How did that happen?
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Project Tame Germany has been thoroughly accomplished. Project Tame Russia, on the other hand, is still in the works. Ukraine is just the latest iteration thereof.
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Ask Putin. He’s the one who said that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the worst disaster in Russian history. Communism didn’t work, but Putin seems to want bring Russia back into the same position that the SU occupied. Maybe the problem with the Russians wasn’t that they were communists. Maybe the problem with Russians is that they’re Russians.
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As anyone who has actually bothered to take the time to read the speech in question (as opposed to having simply been fed someone else's interpretation of that particular snippet from it and swallowed it whole) can easily determine, he meant it in the same way that someone who viewed the mid-20th century collapse of the British Empire as "a major geopolitical disaster of the century" would. No more, no less.
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I did read it, although it’s been a while. I didn’t take that meaning from it. Why would someone use the word disaster if he didn’t think it was a bad thing? Would someone call the defeat of Nazism a disaster if he wasn’t a Nazi? Your interpretation sounds like a strained apologetic that someone made up to sweep it under the rug.
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