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Thirty-five days ago, regime collapse was conspicuously (and wisely) not articulated as a military objective. If it happened, great, but if it didn’t, so be it.
Conventional wisdom and history said you can’t achieve regime collapse solely from bombing.
If Iran were to be the exception, the reason had to be a popular uprising.
Thirty-five days ago, the importance of the military objectives alone justified taking military action. Iran’s response to its defeat in the Twelve-Day War made this action inevitable. Iran doubled down on building offensive missiles. The nuclear work would continue, but first an intimidating conventional missile force would be produced. Israel’s Iron Dome was good, but it could be overcome by overwhelming numbers of missiles being fired simultaneously. Iron Dome’s anti-missile missiles are incredibly precise and agile, but also expensive. Iran’s missiles are crude, less accurate, but relatively cheap.
Militarily, everything has gone well — better than well — for 35 days.
The uprising has not occurred — yet. Maybe it will, maybe not. The possibility that it wouldn’t was always part of the plan.
What was not part of the plan was the reaction of Democrats, Europe, and the press. In a word, the reaction of the “Left.” For decades, the Left joined the consensus in condemning Iran and in proclaiming that Iran should never get a nuclear weapon. Now, on the very first day of a serious action to deny Iran a nuclear weapon, the Left condemned Trump and Israel and started cheerleading for Iran.
Today, if America and Israel were to declare victory and quit bombing, any objective assessment of the last 35 days would agree that they were indeed victorious. The Left, however, would proclaim it to be a humiliating, expensive, wasteful defeat.
The consequence would be this: Iran learns they can build back with impunity, and Israel learns they are one American election away from being abandoned.
The original plan did not include the destruction of bridges, power plants, and industrial infrastructure. If that occurs, it will be solely because the Left raised the stakes.
G-Pub
PS: The Left is not acting solely from TDS. They are motivated also by ADS (America Derangement Syndrome) and IDS (Israel Derangement Syndrome, commonly known as anti-semitism). Letting them off the hook by saying they only hate Trump is far too kind. They Hate America. And, They Hate Jews.
Discussion (36)
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I expect Israel knows and has known since Obama that they are one election away from overt action against their State, not just passive abandonment. It’s never been generally loved. I guess it’s been inevitable that the nomenklatura would begin to aggressively endorse Iran and its theocratic regime. Europe certainly has had a vested interest in Iran’s ability to keep sending them oil. The US team just wants first, Trump gone, he and his family and friends destroyed and then the ultimate dismantling of the US Republic. They will never stop pushing. It’s discouraging that so many congressional “Republicans” don’t accept that the threat is real and imminent and there are actions ongoing to keep it moving ahead. None of this is just an academic exercise - the totalitarian left means it.
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“The original plan did not include the destruction of bridges, power plants, and industrial infrastructure. If that occurs, it will be solely because the Left raised the stakes”
I think this is incorrect. Disruption of transportation networks is surely a potential course of action. Power stations can be crippled with special ordnance, first used against Iraq in 2003.
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Top generals don't usually get fired when things are going well.
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I don't know why anybody would be surprised by that. The Left hates everything Trump does. This should go without saying. If Trump didn't plan for that, he is naive.
I don't know why criticism by people in newspapers or online blogs would affect Donald Trump's military strategy. He ignores all criticism and openly disdains it. People on the Left are not causing him to bomb bridges and power plants.
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No, it will because the Iranian government was more resilient than expected. I didn't expect their government to survive this long , either.
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