Donald Trump’s Indictments are the Republicans’ Sword of Damocles

A wise man once said I want to know where you sit, before I know where you stand. So, I want to briefly explain my background before my argument so I can take any claims of being Never-Trump off the table.

My own Trump love/hate relationship is that I was against him before 2016 mostly because he wasn't running a very conservative campaign and there were better, more conservative options available. I was convinced by this same wise man that there are only 2 political parties that can actually win, and therefore you are going to be governed by one or the other. I was convinced to vote for Trump because I didn't want to "cut my nose to spite my face". Even though I had strong doubts about Trump, I figured he was better for the country than the alternative and I voted for him.

He wasn't my first choice, but if every Republican only ever voted for their first-choice, outcome be damned, the Democrats would win every election.

The Trump administration was a pleasant surprise. He governed far more conservatively than he ran. He was the best President of my lifetime going back to Reagan, and I supported him strongly in 2020. Alas, he lost. If he wins the nomination again, I will support him again, although with less enthusiasm.

Trump does not have my support in this primary. He's not the best candidate to push conservative ideals or win the general election for many reasons. My support is strongly for Ron DeSantis. I know many on Ricochet are beholden to Trump—they support him unquestioningly and will "go down with the ship", whether out of loyalty to the man or to "what he represents". And I think this is foolish, as there are numerous reasons not to support him (many of them can be debated in good faith), but this post is specifically aimed at one overriding reason: the indictments.

My argument:

I don't think Trump can win the general election. I think he's going to get skunked, and I don't see why we are putting forth a candidate who is sure to lose when there are other alternatives who will win. My preference is DeSantis, but I would take any of the others over Trump because I desperately want to win the White House.

People like to point to the polls to show the inevitability of Trump winning the Primary, and his strength against Biden in the general. He's indeed polling well. However, I don't think the polls matter this far out from the general election, so I honestly don't really give a damn how well he polls in a hypothetical matchup a year from now. Democrats who are dissatisfied with Biden are going to come home to vote against Trump, just as I came home to vote against Hillary in 2016. This is the nature of a two-party system. Like it or not, the important thing is to win independents in a general election.

You might think things look fine now in a hypothetical matchup a year out between two well-known candidates, but what happens when Trump is convicted of his indictments? This would be like a grenade going off in the general election. I don't think it would have much effect on Democrats or Republicans—their opinions are set in stone. The independents however don't like either candidate, and don't want to vote for either. Given the timeline of the court cases which are designed to interfere with the election, Trump is going to be convicted of a variation of felonies prior to the general election.

So I've made two claims to support this position: Trump is going to be convicted of felonies, and the voters are going to reject him because of it.

Claim 1: Trump is going to be convicted of felonies.

He's got 91 felony indictments. Federal cases that go to trial get 87% conviction rate. He has 2 federal trials with a total of 44 charges and 2 state cases with a total of 47 charges. All of his charges are felony charges.

Only 2% of federal cases went to trial. 98% didn’t, because 90% plead guilty and 8% had cases dismissed. He's going to trial because he's not going to plead guilty beforehand. If he pleads guilty to felonies, his campaign is dead. His entire schtick is that he's innocent and being railroaded, and if he admits guilt that strategy goes out the window, so he's never going to do that.

So based on the above data, without considering the merits of the cases, Trump has an 87% chance of conviction in one of the two federal cases. To avoid a conviction in both cases, he's got a .0169% chance. This doesn't include the state cases, which naturally he would have to avoid a conviction in both as well.

Now let's consider the venues for these cases: New York state court, U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida, Georgia state court, U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia. The NY, Atlanta, and DC trials are awful for Trump. It's going to be impossible to find unbiased juries.

No matter how you slice it, I don't see how he gets out of 91 criminal indictments. For the record, I think they are all bogus and I'd not only vote to acquit; I'd pursue indictments against the prosecutors in each case. But I don't get to decide. The courts will, and I don't see any possible way in which Trump skates on every charge.

Claim 2: Voters won't vote for a criminal.

Okay, so why does it matter? Reasonable people can see they are bogus charges and it won't effect my vote! Look at the polls. Trump is going to smash Biden!

If you are thinking this, it is copium.

Rationally, we don't elect criminals. It's easy to make the logical case that everyone—especially moderates—aren't going to support a felon who might even be in jail come election night in November. Trumps inevitable convictions won't make as much difference to Republicans and Democrats, because they already like or hate the guy. Moderates/independents are the middle who dislike both Biden and Trump.

The reason this matters is because the conviction is going to make the election about Trump. Moderates, who aren't beholden to Trump out of loyalty are going to flee him at the voting booth because a convicted felon is toxic candidate. I have some data to back it up, based on "muh polls".

Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted between December 5-11, 2023

Q3104Y23. If the election for president were held today and the candidates were ..., for whom would you
vote?

Total (N=4,411) Republican (N=1,689) Democrat (N=2,050) Independents (N=481)
Joe Biden (Democrat) 36% 4% 77% 29%
Donald Trump (Republican) 38% 82% 7% 24%
Some other candidate 12% 9% 9% 23%
I wouldn't vote 7% 2% 3% 15%
Don't know / Refused 7% 3% 4% 9%

Okay, so what does this poll show us? It shows us with Donald Trump defeating Joe Biden if the election were held today, at this moment. Is this poll relevant? It tracks all the other polling currently about Trump/Biden based on an election a year from now. Polling for an event a year from now is in my opinion worthless. But this question is relevant because of the following question:

Q3181Y23_1. If all other things were equal, would you vote for Donald Trump for president in 2024 if he
is/has been - Convicted of a felony crime by a jury

Total (N=4,411) Republican (N=1,689) Democrat (N=2,050) Independents (N=481)
Would vote for Donald Trump 25% 52% 8% 15%
Would NOT vote for Donald Trump 59% 31% 86% 66%
Don't know 16% 17% 6% 19%

Okay, so what does this poll show us? This shows us that Trump is significantly less electable if he has a conviction for a felony. We can see that for an election today (not a year from now), his support drops from 24% to 15% with independents. 66% wouldn't consider him. This is devastating. Even within the Republican party, support drops from 82% to 52%. There should be Defcon 1 alarm bells ringing right now. If there aren't, it's because you aren't paying attention and need to wake up.

So basically, Trumps support takes a massive hit today if he has a conviction. He can't win losing those huge numbers. He's dead on arrival. This is just one poll. It's a reuters poll, but this isn't even what people are talking about with this poll because it doesn't fit the narrative. It's buried in the polling data which I linked. No one is talking about it— Trump-Loyalists don't want to think about it, and Democrats have an interest in making sure Trump is the nominee, so they aren't championing the fact that he's about to be unelectable with even one criminal conviction.

Conclusion:

I implore you all to consider the likely events before you vote in the primaries. I understand the love for Trump and loyalty many feel you owe him regarding 2024. I strongly supported Trump in 2020. But he lost. And now, Trump's indictments are hanging over our heads like a Sword of Damocles. If any of those indictments result in a conviction, as they almost certainly will, we are going to be skewered electorally.

The court cases are designed to interfere with the Republican primaries. The first is scheduled for Jan 4, the hush money case in NY (this is the case least likely to result in a conviction as I think everyone, even leftists, understand is a joke—however it's in NY and Trump won't get a fair trial). The 2nd is scheduled to begin on March 4 right before Super Tuesday: The Jan 6 case. May 20 is the classified documents case from FL. The GA case is not scheduled yet. It's possible Donald Trump is the nominee before any of the cases are decided.

This should be the number one issue we consider when voting in the primaries, and Trump supporters need to answer how we get around this coming disaster. Frankly, if Trump supporters are going to saddle us with a clearly unelectable candidate, they owe it to the rest of the party to explain how Trump can win. We are barreling towards an easily foreseeable disaster; like the Titanic racing towards an iceberg. Instead of changing course we are going full steam ahead, and I don't want to go down with this ship. Please make a course correction.