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In times of crisis, what is makes almost no difference. What matters is what people think. We can see this in all violent revolutions in history - see Mao and Lenin, Washington and Hitler. Those who own the narrative can change history.
If the Iranian military or civil leaders think Iran is winning, they will fight on. But if they think the tide has turned, that it is time to embrace the new Shah, then the war can end in a day or two.
This is why there is so much surrounding access to information and the internet. It is why the Iranian regime has resorted to desperate hyperbole, why Israel bombed the TV broadcaster (moments after the anchor said, "Bombs cannot hurt us, because Allah protects us."), and why Iran has apparently turned off the internet across the country (except possibly Starlink and other satellite access).
And why America bringing forces to bear might do the job without any actual military engagement. The mere threat of bunker busters could shift mindsets.
At this point the pivotal piece may have little or nothing to do with Fordow, or any weapon or bomb. Israel simply needs the light switch to go off in the minds of anyone left in Iran who can make a decision. A single publicized military leader who publicly swears allegiance to someone besides Khameini, a civil politician who takes this opportunity to try to seize power for himself.
....will it happen?
Worth my prayers, at least.
Discussion (18)
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I can see the military forcing out the mullahs and taking over . . .
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What I find annoying are the people who insist that we not get involved with a "forever" war with Iran at this point. As far as the current Iranian government is concerned, we've been involved in a war for the last 47 years. How long does it have to have been going on before it counts as "forever?"
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It is an open question as to whether the Ayatollah or the IRGC really runs the country. The military includes both the IRGC and regular army- as well as the Quds force. Like many dictatorships there is more than one army so as to make a coup more difficult (Hitler- Weirmacht & SS- not to mention Luftwaffe ground divisions, Saddam- army & Republican Guard, Stalin- Red Army & NKVD - which had 53 divisions in WW2).
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The "Forever War" has become an automatic excuse for the U.S. to not do anything, anywhere. It is just an annoying sound byte that has little meaning unless expounded upon in great detail.
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Even a small amount of detail would help.
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