3 Whisky Happy HourThe Ricochet PodcastGLoP CultureBeyond the Polls with Henry OlsenGray MattersDaily SignalThe Erick Erickson ShowGiving VenturesMom Wars3 Martini LunchChicks on The RightParsing Immigration PolicyFederalist Radio HourWhat the Hell Is Going OnFreedom to LearnThe Learning CurveThe Conservative Woman’s GuideHeritage ExplainsNot Dead YetWho Funds that?The Radio Free Hillsdale HourThe Glenn ShowFirst Things PodcastCall Me Back - with Dan SenorHillsdale DialoguesLaw Talk with Epstein, Yoo & CookeThe LibertarianThe Report Card with Nat MalkusThe Kevin Roberts Show with Larry O’ConnorThe American IdeaMadison’s NotesConservative Crossroads with Henry OlsenThe Back of the BookMartini ShotThe Dave Carter ShowThe Powerline ShowIn DissentHeard at HeritageSmart Girl PoliticsJames Lileks’ The DinerCase in Point: The Legal Show on the Hottest Legal Cases in Politics and CultureJobMakersOne on One with Robert DoarHomeschooling Journeys with Curious MikeHubwonk

Get the Ricochet app

Ricochet will work fine in a browser on your mobile devices, but for the best experience please download our app.

Download on the App StoreGet it on Google Play

Become a member.

Tired of the toxicity of social media? Why not join Ricochet for just $5/month? Think of it as an online bar. Come in, have a drink, hang out, say whatever you want. But don’t badger, bully, or berate the other drinkers. That's our only rule.

  1. Main Feed/
  2. Ding Dong, RCP8.5 is dead
May 6, 2026 at 8:33 AM

Ding Dong, RCP8.5 is dead

Old Bathos
@OldBathos

To read this bio, please join Ricochet.

Join to bookmark19likesJoin to like18comments

The IPCC has quietly dropped the always suspect high-end scare scenario RCP8.5 ("representative concentration pathway 8.5"). Alarmists have always said they did not claim this was likely, but nevertheless worked that scenario into thousands of papers and policy recommendations. The possibility of a temperature rise of 4 degrees Celsius or more by the end of the century was the driver behind lots of very bad policy. Avoiding this dire outcome became such a major consideration that it was worked not just into legislation and regulation but also financial institution policy, planning and behavior. Examples:

If you ask any AI about climate sensitivity (warming per doubling of CO2 concentration in ppm), it will tell you that the "consensus" is 3.0 degrees C. That is now the high end rather than the midpoint! (I wonder when Grok and ChatGPT will catch up.) At this rate, the pronouncements of The Consensus (Peace Be Upon It) might soon approach the modest warming predicted by the outcast denialist scum.

It is mildly amusing that the official explanation for the change is not that the methodology and assumptions behind RCP8.5 never made sense, as many critics have pointed out. Perish the thought. It was the roaring success of genius policy choices and alternative energy usage that averted this bad scenario—even as the global increase of CO2 continued to increase at the same rate and alarmists gave us X years to solve the problem. Puh-leeze.

Some super number cruncher should figure out the economic damage from what the fear-mongers' distortion of the global economy has wrought. The corporate and financial world is already disengaging from costly fantasy, but not fast enough. Could there actually be a global economic boom if everybody goes for the red pill on climate change?

This post was promoted to the Main Feed at the recommendation of Ricochet's members.

Discussion (18)

Sign in to commentSign in
  • To read this bio, please join Ricochet.

    DonG (Here.We.Go.)@DonG·23w
    Old Bathos (View Post):

    It is mildly amusing that the official explanation for the change is not that the methodology and assumptions behind RCP8.5 never made sense as many critics have pointed out.

    RCP8.5 was always bonkers. It was created so that modelers could create doomsday simulations and any ambitious STEM major could get headlines about the possible extinction of jack-o-lopes. It has been the basis of systemic science fraud and communist ambitions for 3 decades.

    What does RCP8.5 assume? That western economies will reduce their industrial efficiencies down to Soviet era East Germany factories. That humans will breed like rabbits and the population will hit 16 billion. That people will discard LED lighting and go back to kerosene lamps. The RCP8.5 fraud is part and parcel of the entire Global Warming fraud.

  • CHARTER MEMBER

    To read this bio, please join Ricochet.

    Sisyphus@Sisyphus·23w
    Old Bathos (View Post):

    Could there actually be a global economic boom if everybody goes for the red pill on climate change?

    Or would we just succumb to the next brain dead psyop imposed by the usual, very entitled, enemies of civilization. That notwithstanding, it is certainly worth a go.

  • To read this bio, please join Ricochet.

    Susan Quinn@SusanQuinn·23w
    Old Bathos (View Post):

    Puh-leeze.

    Really! I'm so tired of hearing the liars obfuscate on this ridiculous premise. Have we come back from the brink yet, and are we in time to save the planet?! Oh mercy, me!

  • To read this bio, please join Ricochet.

    Old Bathos@OldBathos·23w
    ReplyingtoSisyphus
    Old Bathos (View Post):

    Could there actually be a global economic boom if everybody goes for the red pill on climate change?

    Sisyphus (View Comment):

    Or would we just succumb to the next brain dead psyop imposed by the usual, very entitled, enemies of civilization. That notwithstanding, it is certainly worth a go.

    Maybe the emergence of some mutant hybrid of Greenies and Islamicists with a goal of a global economy and technology not to exceed that of the eleventh century.

    On the upside, wokeness has been such an annoying, cheerless loser cult that maybe a critical mass of folks will be open to a little more upbeat reality-based progress. i don't have an "I Believe in Science" yard sign because I believe that science can be our friend and should not be twisted into not an excuse to constrain, silence and impoverish.

  • CHARTER MEMBER

    To read this bio, please join Ricochet.

    GLDIII Purveyor of Splendid Malpropisms@GLDIII·23w
    Old Bathos (View Post):

    Could there actually be a global economic boom if everybody goes for the red pill on climate change?

    Short answer...without a doubt.

    From a climate believer (I would characterize as a Luke warmer) who was dismissed from UC Boulder for not being emphatic enough about the dangers of climate change:

    Roger Pielke Jr.'s "iron law of climate policy" states that when economic growth policies conflict with emissions reduction policies, economic growth will prevail. This principle highlights the challenge of balancing environmental objectives with the demands of economic development.

    The adjoining notion regarding the whole green scam of wind and solar from a man who has spent his entire career follow energy issues (and lived the Texas black out a few years ago due to this crap)

    Robert Bryce refers to "The Iron Law of Power Density," which states that the lower the power density of an energy source, the higher the resource intensity required to produce energy. This concept highlights the challenges of relying on low power-density sources like wind and solar energy compared to nuclear energy.

    I have casually soap boxed elsewhere on Ricochet (cough, The PiT, cough) that the laws of Thermodynamics from the Scottish enlightenment state all energy conversions come with an energy cost, or as I state for the regular folks, There is no, and has never been, a free lunch.

Scroll for later comments
+13 more comments
Join the conversation

You're seeing five of 18 comments. Sign in, or join for just $5 per month, to read them all and add your own.

Trending

Become a member.

Tired of the toxicity of social media? Why not join Ricochet for just $5/month? Think of it as an online bar. Come in, have a drink, hang out, say whatever you want. But don’t badger, bully, or berate the other drinkers. That's our only rule.

Join Ricochet

Get the Ricochet app

Download on the App StoreGet it on Google Play
  • •
  • •