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Putting down a marker

James Lileks
@jameslileks
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Saw this at Instapundit:

Seems to depend on AZ, WI, and PA, again.

I think it's time for those of us who were certain this would not happen to admit that it could.

I don't say this to spark a debate about Trump - I think we've had one or two of those over the years - but to ask the cohort of NTTTFGSWCOHSNWBA (Not Trump The Time For God's Sake We Could Have Had Someone New Who'd Beat Biden) whether they're still convinced of his inevitable and decisive defeat. I was before; now I'm not. And it's not just this map.

I think it's inflation, immigration, crime, wokey BS, and general malaise with the ruling class. Trump's history on COVID and vaccines and spending and the Wall For Which Mexico Would Pay are irrelevant, because all those crimson states are pretty sure he would not pursue Bidenesque policies. Anyway, I lay down this marker to say that my presumptions may have been wrong. I thought he'd lost the middle and the persuadable. Perhaps that's true and they don't matter; perhaps that's wrong when it comes down to push and shove. Perhaps it's CNN trying to keep the electorate tremulous and angry to beef the ratings. Perhaps the polls show that a lot of people who can't stand Trump will vote for him anyway because Let's Go Brandon. I don't know.

But for fellow NTTTFGSWCOHSNWBAs: if he wins, what does this do to your assumptions? What conclusions would you draw?

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Discussion (48)

  • Old Bathos@OldBathos

    Remember when Nixon successfully relied on the Silent Majority? This election may be decided by the Really Silent Harvested Plurality. Those ballot printing operations in Long Island may need some additional USPS delivery trucks to get all the content required into Philadelphia to stop Trump this time.

    In Maryland, we used to joke about how the Baltimore graveyard that contains the remains of Edgar Allan Poe was a key swing precinct. COVID registration rules in some states have likely created similar voting blocs.

  • Banned Member@BryanGStephens

    In response to the OP, I am not NTTTFGSWCOHSNWBA. I have been called "Ever Trump" but I am not that either. I am not exactly Reluctant Trump. I have been willing to over look a lot of things I don't like to vote for him. Then again, I have done that with every GOP candidate, so nose holding seems the norm.

    I worry about defeat all the time. The forces of the left are arrayed against all candidates, and with Trump, there are forces on the right arrayed against him too. If Trump wins, I will be happy.

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