4-D Chess

First, I apologize for the bait-and-switch nature of the title of this post: 4-Dimensional chess is a stupid analogy and will not be mentioned again.

International diplomacy is a multi-player game where each player has unique strengths and weaknesses; unique goals and objectives; and each plays by their own rules, which can change over time.

For the next few days, Trump will be negotiating with people who claim to represent Iran, but the question of who actually runs Iran is, itself, a fuzzy, complex question.

Simultaneously, Trump is communicating with three others.

To the oppressed people of Iran, Trump is saying — Folks, Israel and I have bombed every military target we can find. We either go home or we start bombing things that are going to make your lives more difficult. Bebe and I think that is what you want us to do. We think you prefer freedom to electricity. If we are wrong, contact your local CIA/Mossad agent and let us know.

To Europe and Asia, his message is — the Strait of Hormuz is your problem, not ours. You have two choices. One, you ask us to please open the strait militarily and back that request up by sending a ship or two to help. Don’t worry, we will do all the heavy lifting, but someone has to go first and draw fire. That will be your role. The other choice is to do nothing. Maybe Iran will relent, maybe not. This is our guarantee to you: Either everyone can use the strait, or no one can use the strait. The option of letting Iran decide who uses the Strait is not on the table.

His message to the American Democratic Party — I am prepared to declare victory, go home, surveil Iran by satellite and wait. If they start building missiles or drones, we bomb the factory. If they clear the rubble over their underground nuke facilities, we create new rubble. If they install new anti-aircraft systems, we will destroy them. If that is what you want, say so. Publicly declare you want to halt current hostilities, but that you will support future bombing if that is what it takes to keep Iran militarily perpetually neutered.

If you wish me to continue current hostilities until regime change occurs, say so publicly. Maybe I can be persuaded. Bottom line: state a cogent, serious plan for preventing Iran from ever getting a nuke. Diplomacy alone is not adequate. Diplomacy and sanctions, alone, are not adequate. Committing to not use force unless and until there is an “imminent” threat is accepting defeat. If you act like grown-ups wanting to solve an existential problem, I’m listening.

You will notice that this post makes no prediction as to what Trump will do next. You see, unlike his undeserved reputation, Trump is not a madman. He is not impetuous. He is a serious adult attempting to accomplish serious things while being surrounded by others who are sometimes less serious.

The most irrational and dangerous player in this game is the IRGC. The most serious and rational player in this game is the one truly facing an existential threat — Israel. The people of Iran are serious and rational, but they are also unarmed. The players most unhelpful are those who prefer to posture to avoid getting serious. The ones who want things without sacrificing or risking anything — Europe, Asia, and the Democratic Party.

G-Pub