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Randy Weivoda wrote a thought-provoking post asking whether the people of Nicaragua weren't getting what they deserved when they re-elected their former dictator Daniel Ortega in 2006, who has just canceled elections this year (2026). It got me wondering why indeed they would elect a man whom they had voted out of office in 1990 as a disastrous failure. I soon learned that the answer to that question could fill a hefty book, but here is my attempt to understand this foolish move by the people of Nicaragua.
Nicaragua and the US Fall Out: In 1904 the US decided to build a canal through Panama. Nicaragua had long expected that the US or another European power would build a canal through its territory, which would have brought it great wealth. Nicaraguan President Jose Santos Zelaya, who had been an American ally, turned against the US and began fighting US influence in the region, including by levying special taxes on US companies and piracy. The US sent Marines to Nicaragua to restore order in 1912, and they stayed until President Hoover withdrew them in 1933.
Sandino's Insurrection: But Augusto Sandino (remember that name), the illegitimate son of a wealthy landowner, led a guerrilla war against the Marines and the corrupt Nicaraguan government. He became a folk hero for his rebellion. After the Marines had left, Sandino was captured and executed in 1934 by Anastasio Somoza, who established the Somoza family dictatorship that ruled Nicaragua until 1979.
Somoza Regime and Opposition: Two significant opposition leaders to the Somoza regime arose. The first was Pedro Chamorro, the editor of La Prensa newspaper from 1932. His son, also named Pedro Chamorro, took over the newspaper in 1952 and continued his father's opposition. He married Violeta Chamorro (remember her as well).
Meanwhile, Daniel Ortega grew up in Managua, born to a middle-class family that idolized Sandino. He somehow managed to attend an elite school where he was classmates with Arnoldo Aleman (another name to remember). He got involved in leftist, anti-American, pro-Cuban politics and founded a rebel movement that eventually became the Sandinistas, named for Augusto Sandino.
Somoza's Downfall: In 1972 a major earthquake struck Managua, and international aid poured in, but the Somoza family stole most of it, thereby ruining their legitimacy. In 1978, the Somozas had Pedro Chamorro, the popular editor of the opposition La Prensa newspaper, assassinated. These two events turned most of Nicaraguan society against the Somozas, and the Sandanistas overthrew them in 1979. But the Sandinistas were joined by most of the elites in the country, including the widowed Violeta Chamorro, in a junta of National Reconstruction. Ortega soon ousted the other elements of the junta, and ruled the country alone until 1990.
Sandinista Rule: The Sandinistas did some good things, such as initiating effective national literacy and vaccination campaigns. But they also nationalized banks and large companies, which backfired. They were allied with Cuba, committed human rights abuses, and oppressed Indian tribes — these became the core of the Contras that the US funded and trained during the 1980s. The Sandinistas mismanaged the economy while the war dragged on and on. By 1990, Ortega and the Sandinistas had become unpopular, but they were too isolated to realize that.
Violeta Chamorro Defeats Ortega in 1990: Ortega expected to win the 1990 presidential election easily, but he was upset by Violeta Chamorro, the widow of the popular newspaper editor from the 1970s. The results came in at 55%-41%. Chamorro led a broad coalition of Sandinista opponents, so she was prevented from reforming the oligarchic Nicaraguan economy or improving the lot of the common people. She was limited to one term as president, so in 1996 the businessman and former classmate of Ortega, Arnoldo Aleman, won the presidency over Ortega 51%-38% on a platform of building roads and liberal constitutionalism.
Corrupt Aleman: Aleman rebuilt the economy and the national road system, but he proceeded to steal vast sums of money, becoming one of the most corrupt leaders in the world. Transparency International ranked him in the top 10 most corrupt leaders. He was also limited to one term, and his reformist vice-president, Enrique Bolanos, defeated Ortega 56%-42% in 2001 by running on a platform of cleaning up Aleman's corruption.
El Pacto: Aleman was arrested and convicted of corruption and sentenced to 20 years in prison. Meanwhile, he made a deal ("El Pacto") with his high-school classmate Daniel Ortega to divide power. Aleman's allies and the Sandinistas continued to control the government and especially the courts, and they frustrated most of Bolanos' reform efforts. Crucially, they amended the constitution to reduce the plurality necessary to become president from 45% to 35%. This would benefit Ortega, who would only win 38%-41% of the vote in four fair elections. Ortega also got the Sandinista-controlled Supreme Court to overturn the one-term limit for the presidency, but only for himself and not other candidates.
Ortega Returns in 2006: In the 2006 elections Bolanos could not run again, and his party split from the Aleman-controlled and corrupt Constitutionalist Liberal Party. As a result, the "liberal" parties ran two candidates, the corrupt, Aleman-controlled Jose Castellon, and Bolanos' reformist heir Eduardo Montealegro. The Sandinistas also suffered a party split with a moderate wing led by Herty Lewites and the hard-line wing led by Ortega. Lewites died of a heart attack (or maybe of poisoning) during the campaign, so the moderate threat to Ortega was eliminated. The liberals split the vote, with the reformist Montealegro getting 29% and the corrupt Aleman-controlled Castellon getting 26%. Ortega got 38%, which was above the 35% threshold that the amended constitution allowed. If the liberals had stayed together, they might have gotten a combined 55% and won the election. But the corruption of Aleman and his allies prevented that.
Ortega Back to His Evil Ways: Ortega and the Sandinistas resumed their corrupt and repressive ways upon returning to power. Ortega got 62%, 72%, and 76% in the next three presidential elections. In 2009 the Sandinista-controlled Supreme Court overturned the corruption convictions of Aleman and freed him from prison. The corrupt El Pacto bargain paid off for both Ortega and Aleman, and now Ortega has declared that no more presidential elections are necessary.
The 2006 presidential election in Nicaragua is a prime example of how socialists can only come to power by force or corruption. The people of Nicaragua have never freely elected the Sandinistas, but they have suffered under their rule for decades.
Discussion (7)
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To summarize the big picture - Nicaragua has been run by a corrupt oligarchy for more than a century, represented by the Somozas, Aleman, and others. They control the big companies and large swaths of land. The urban and rural poor are mistreated, but there is a history of folk hero leaders, such as Sandino and Ortega, who arise to fight the injustices. There are also a few interludes of reformist leaders like Violeta Chamorro and Bolanos who try to bring in reforms, but they have been effectively blocked thus far by the oligarchy.
Ortega and the Sandinistas started as outsiders who allied with the majority of the elite at the end of the 1970s who were disgusted by the Somoza corruption. They ousted the Somozas, but in turn ousted their short-time elite allies. After a decade in power, the Sandinistas had entrenched themselves in power and become the corrupt insiders. Even after they were voted out for their mismanagement, abuses, and corruption, they never went away. They spent 16 years out of the presidency (1990-2006), but they still held a lot of government and economic power. Aleman, as the leader of the oligarchs, allied them with the Sandinistas after he left the presidency in 1996. The infighting between the oligarchy and the reformers allowed Ortega and the Sandinistas to re-take the presidency.
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It is interesting that your account begins in the same period of the first two decades of the 20th century when America's corrupted foundations that underlay our greatest problems today were created. Those problems are unlimited federal spending and a big business big government partnership engaged in something referred to as central planning that doesn't produce anything that works.
The divided rivalry of today is between those who are striving for more of that central planning and control and those who want less, the latter the vision of the Founders..
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And then you go to Central America and you wonder: power over what? What's there to fight over?
I do not mean that mockingly. The answer may well be "just enough dirt to justify owning a hoe." These countries are small and having a plot of your own may be all that you can reasonably aspire to. Maybe the better question is What's there to lord over? That there are "oligarchs" who apparently yearn not just to run the place but rule over it, as well as Communists who themselves want total control, is striking.
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Two major examples of what I allude to in my previous comment are America's healthcare system and education system. We develop the very best functioning system in existence followed by excessive central planning that leads to high cost and poor performance. The medical outcome is still deceptive in the eyes of the common people because the poor performance is emerging in the administrative performance costs while the medical outcomes are still superlative. But the education outcome is just plain bad.
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The people in charge live very well by any standard and very, very well by local standards. Seems like motivation enough. Humans are sinful and the most sinful will seek the most power in any system that allows it.
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