A Theory On The Matt Gaetz Nomination

President Trump's decision to nominate Rep. Matt Gaetz for Attorney General was quite a surprise, to say the least. Equally surprising was Gaetz's decision to immediately resign from Congress rather than wait for Senate confirmation to his new post. Both of these moves have inspired much noise from the chattering class which is easily wrapped up in palace intrigue. After all, if Senate confirmation is in doubt even a little bit why not hang on to the House seat until the thing is certain?

Rep. Gaetz explained his quick resignation by saying that doing so allows his seat to be filled by special election as soon as January 3rd. Most talking heads and just about everyone on X seem pretty darn certain that the real reason Gaetz resigned was to prevent the Ethics Committee from releasing a report on its investigation of the now former member of Congress. Apparently, now that Gaetz is out of Congress, the committee no longer has jurisdiction to investigate ethics complaints about him or release the report of their already completed investigation.

Conventional wisdom, such as it is, has coalesced around the idea that Matt Gaetz has little to no chance of being confirmed by the Senate due to the many allegations against him (which he has vociferously denied), including allegations of having engaged in sexual activity and drug use with minors. According to the talking heads and tweeting tweeters, the Ethics Committee report will be damning and its release would sink any chance Gaetz might have to be confirmed as the next Attorney General of The United States.

There are so many things to pick apart here. The first and most obvious fact to consider is that the Biden DOJ looked into the allegations against Gaetz and found nothing to prosecute. If the Biden DOJ/FBI decided there's no "there" there, well, they're probably right. Some will say the lack of federal charges merely proves they couldn't find evidence he committed a federal crime. Be that as it may, we all know that Merrick Garland and his merry band of politically weaponized investigators wouldn't hesitate to pass along to state and local law enforcement evidence they found of any crimes that could be prosecuted in state or local jurisdictions. The fact that this didn't happen is telling.

Furthermore, it's ridiculous to think that Gaetz's resignation would prevent the public from seeing the Ethics Committee report. There is zero chance that the report won't be leaked by Democrat committee members or their staffers. Zero. Zilch. The report will be leaked in a matter of days at most. Gaetz knows this full well so there's no reason for him to resign to prevent the report from dropping. Even if the report is somehow miraculously not leaked on the House side, members of the Senate will demand access to the report before conducting hearings or voting on confirmation. Does anyone think it won't be leaked by a Senate Judiciary Committee member or staffer?

If the report is destined to be made public by leakers from the House Ethics Committee or Senate Judiciary Committee, and if the report is going to be so damning as to automatically sink all hope of confirmation, why would President Trump bother nominating Gaetz to begin with? It seems unlikely that he would, so there must be something else at play; something that makes both Trump and Gaetz confident of Senate confirmation.

President Trump is a smart guy, and he's surrounded by a bunch of smart people. They can do math and they know the score. There is little to no chance that Trump nominated Gaetz without knowing what's in the Ethics report. The fact that Trump nominated Gaetz and that Gaetz immediately resigned is House seat indicates they both know full well the Ethics report is a nothing burger at worst and maybe even a full exoneration.

If this theory is correct, the Republican Senators currently croaking out condemnations and promises to vote against Gaetz are walking into a neat little trap of their own making. By hanging their opposition on the supposedly damning report, they're setting themselves up to have no basis for opposing confirmation if and when the report becomes public and shows the allegations to be unsubstantiated or abjectly false. At that point, they'll have little choice but to go along with making Matt Gaetz the next Attorney General.

I have no inside information and don't pretend to be an expert analyst, but so far I haven't heard any better explanation. I don't buy that Trump did it on a whim without consulting his team or that it's all a setup to make it easier to confirm the real nominee after Gaetz withdraws. Those theories make great fodder for palace intrigue but don't seem the least bit plausible. Trump knows he's got a solid nominee because the Deep State took its shot and missed. Again.