On the Attack in Jordan

As most of you are probably aware, the campaign by Iranian-allied militias against American targets in the Middle East turned deadly over the weekend. Three American soldiers were killed in a drone attack on Tower 22, a base on the Jordanian side of that country's borders with Syria and Iraq. I was deployed to the Middle East with my National Guard unit, so I'm somewhat familiar with our presence in Jordan. The deployment was several years ago, and I am only a junior logistics officer, so I don't claim a great deal of expertise, but here are my thoughts on the matter. (Of course, any opinions are strictly my own.)

First, attacking Jordan, depending how far up the decision was made, is a significant escalation. Jordan is not in a state of civil war, like Syria, or caught between pro-American and pro-Iranian factions, like Iraq. It has a stable, legitimate, and even somewhat liberal (by Middle Eastern standards) government, and has been a Major non-NATO Ally of the United States since 1996. In addition to the United States, Jordan has close ties to the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, and many of the Gulf states. Unlike Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq, Jordan does not have a significant Shi'ite population for the Iranians to subvert. The country is over ninety percent Sunni Muslim, with the remaining five to ten percent being Christians, mostly Roman Catholic and Greek Orthodox.

If further attacks occur against American forces in Jordan, there would be a significant risk of injuring or killing Jordanian soldiers and civilians, as well as people from allied nations (mostly in Europe). It would be a good way to start a regional war if the Iranians want one. Fortunately, they seem to be pulling back from the brink: the Iranian government has denied responsibility for the attack, and the "Islamic Resistance in Iraq", an Iranian-backed group, has claimed attacks in the area, but not the one at Tower 22.