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We can claim great progress in destroying Iran’s military, weapons and infrastructure. But ideology is not the only factor contributing to support for the regime. It seems that many segments of Iran’s society are being funded and are receiving perks, as long as they support the status quo:
The depth of the social and economic contract is helping the regime maintain cohesion despite the weekslong Israeli and American air campaign eroding its leadership and infrastructure. Only 20% of Iranians support the regime, recent polls show, but they constitute a more cohesive block than the opposition, binding the ruling Shia clerics, paramilitary forces and civilians through economic interests.
Who are the people who are benefiting from this economic bonus? The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has 125,000 people on the payroll; the paramilitary Basij benefit from admission to the universities and receive government-supported jobs and other perks; the IRGC controls conglomerates, hotels, coffee shops, metro lines and hospitals. The impact of these financial relationships is difficult to overcome:
Conservative clerics allied with the Guard Corps also control large religious foundations, or bonyads, that together with Guards companies, control more than 50% of the economy, according to a December 2025 report by the Clingendael Institute, a Dutch geopolitical research center. ‘This ‘military-bonyad complex’ is the fundamental glue of Iran’s political economy and underpins the state’s economic power,’ it said. ‘This complex remains unbroken’ and ‘allows for little domestic political change.’
If the regime can maintain the allegiance of these groups and individual loyalists, they could easily be a stumbling block to victory.
Discussion (27)
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"Domestic political change" would be a bonus, but it was never the goal.
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But, Clavius, if we leave what's left of the current regime in charge, what will be the future?
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Not to be flip, but as Yogi Berra said, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."
In any case, it will be a future for Iran without nuclear weapons, with a destroyed military base, and highly degraded missile capabilities.
I certainly wouldn't want the current regime or what's left of it in charge, but that wasn't the stated goal of our effort. I hope and pray that there is a better future for the people of Iran and for the rest of the world with the current odious regime gone.
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I think PDT and Super Marco have been somewhat disengenuous with their stated goals. There's no real way to achieve them short of regime change. (I have no problem with that. DJT is better at PR than I.)
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I’m concerned they can just wait us out and Trump will declare that we got what we wanted and leave.
In 2030, thereabouts, President Cortez sends the first pallets of cash to Tehran as “reparations,” as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu warns the world about Iran’s nuclear program.
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