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Various people have been predicting this for a few years now, and I hadn't thought about it for a while — until yesterday. Then I saw in the news that Elon Musk is predicting the same. The idea is that once self-driving taxis are ubiquitous, few people will want to own a car anymore. This I do not understand. Human-driven taxis have existed for generations, and most Americans still have their own cars trucks. Why will this be so different when the taxis are self-driving? Are there really tens of millions of Americans who say the following?
I hate driving myself around. I'd love it if I could put in a request for a taxi, have it show up sometime in the next 15-30 minutes, take me to my destination, then get lost. But there's one thing I hate more than driving myself: taxi drivers. If I have to put up with some homo sapien chowderhead driving me around, forget it. I'll just drive myself.
The point of this post isn't to bash driverless cars. I do not necessarily object to them, and I'm not going to decry robots taking jobs from humans. I just don't understand the prediction that people who have preferred owning their own cars trucks (I keep forgetting that most people drive trucks these days, not cars) will prefer to ride taxis once we get rid of the taxi drivers. I suppose the taxi rides could theoretically be cheaper without a human driver. Is that it? Are there dozens of millions of Americans who prefer riding in taxis to driving their own cars, but the cost of taking a cab is 20% too high?
I also think it's ironic that the boss of Tesla is one of those making this prediction. There were some electric cars available before Tesla, but they were mostly gutless cars based on economy platforms. Tesla is the company that changed the direction and said people want luxury cars with astonishing levels of horsepower. The Tesla Model 3 Performance makes over 500 hp. The top-of-the-line Model S generates over 1,000 horsepower! Are the people who buy these ultra-fast cars longing for the day when they can ride in a taxi that will chauffeur them to their destination at the speed limit?
If anyone reading this is a car owner who will happily ditch their car and become an everyday taxi customer once the cabs are self-driving, please explain this to me.
Discussion (209)
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I like not driving in horrible Korean traffic.
In the US, I want a car. I don't just want to go places, I want to see what's between points A and B. And I want my car stereo blaring all the while.
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Private ownership of automobiles is essential to liberty in a society. With it, a poor man has greater mobility than the kings of just 120 years ago. Without it, our mobility is ultimately at the whim of government.
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I enjoy driving and I think most folks that don't grow up in places like Manhattan are like me. Driving is freedom.
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I love cars, and I grew up in New York City with its mass transit. They've both got a lot going in their favor. I was lucky enough to keep a car in Manhattan.
When Walt Disney first designed EPCOT, not the Epcot Center we know, the intention was to have, in effect, automated taxis within the Experimental Prototype Community of Tomorrow, connecting to light rail, connecting to railway stations, airports, and garages for private cars on the outer edge of town. It could have worked, but after Walt's death plans for the Orlando park shrank from being an actual futuristic city to being just a really good theme park with world's fair touches.
I don't need a self-driving car. But my wife and most of her friends (we're in our seventies) would like it just fine. They don't want to tear down mountain roads, downshifting a six speed transmission. They don't want to rip up the high desert with high ground clearance. They don't care about torque-y final drive ratios. They'd like to get to the supermarket, to the park, to doctor's appointments. There's honestly no reason why these women shouldn't feel that way. Elevators don't have operators anymore. They wouldn't mind pressing a button and just getting there.
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Why wouldn't self-driving cars do that? Unless you mean pulling over at times to get out and look and stuff. But otherwise, it's not like self-driving cars would have the windows blacked out or something. You'd still see everything as you go by, and you could pay full attention to that rather than driving.
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