Prediction: We Win. They Lose.

As the wise man once said, making predictions is hard, especially about the future.

Nonetheless, success comes to those who predict they will be successful. What is happening in Iran today is 47 years overdue because we were afraid to predict success. We are winning. We will win. The bad guys are losing. They will lose.

I will not spend time on why it is foolhardy to assume someone else will react to a certain situation the same way as you would. It is foolhardy, but, some situations are so compelling that a prediction regarding how someone else will react can and should be made confidently.

Assume you are a low-ranking Iranian officer in an IRGC unit who has been given orders to shoot your countrymen. You look out from your observation post and you see thousands and thousands of protesters filling the streets. You are aware the old days are gone and that they are not coming back. You know you are being ordered to kill for a lost cause. You know you are likely to die if you follow those orders. You don’t understand or believe in the lost cause. You might hate America and Israel, but the streets are not filled with Americans and Israelis. The streets are filled with your family, friends, and neighbors.

I confidently predict the only reason that the young officer follows those orders is the fear that his superiors will shoot him if he doesn’t.

All it will take is a moment when he sees a path out. If he sees it, he will take it. If he sees others take the path, he will join them. He may even lead them. Maybe that path includes shooting his superiors, maybe not.

The day will soon come when Trump will announce that it is time to fill the streets. I predict the streets will fill and that the IRGC and the Basij will collapse. It won’t take months or weeks. It will take 3 days or less from the time the first city falls.

What happens after the fall is difficult to predict. The fall itself is not difficult to predict. The Iranian people have spent the last 13 days in anticipation. They know this is their time. They will rise to the occasion.

250 years ago, we Americans predicted a success others could not imagine. The success I am predicting is not an American success — that has already occurred. We have succeeded. The success I am predicting is an Iranian success. We certainly helped, but the final accomplishment will be theirs.

G-Pub