Conjectures About the Iran War

Here are my conjectures on the bigger picture of the Iran War. It's all kind of speculative, so I'm happy to hear other ideas.

Trump has been determined for decades that Iran should not have nuclear weapons. He thought that the June 2025 bombing in the Twelve-Day War had done the job. He said so repeatedly.

US and Israeli intelligence showed Iran was restarting nuclear bomb work and churning out ballistic missiles in such numbers that would make it far more difficult to attack them. Trump and Netanyahu decided in late 2025 to attack Iran.

In early January 2026, protests broke out over the disastrous state of the Iranian economy. The US would have been able to give some military assistance to the protestors, but it would have upset the already planned strikes against Iran. Trump warned the Iranian regime, ineffectually, that help for the protestors was on the way. Trump thought that Iran would not dare attack the protestors then. However, this was disastrous, as it brought out more protestors, who were then slaughtered by the regime.

The US and Israel were ready to strike in late February and were looking for the best time. The strike was postponed for various reasons, then quickly launched a day early when Israel discovered the senior leadership meeting at the Ayatollah's house.

Trump and Netanyahu expected that the war would be over quickly with the decapitation strikes and heavy blows against the Iranian regime and military. However, they underestimated that the Iranian leadership consists mostly of true believers in the Islamic revolution. Trump has not found a suitable negotiation partner, although that may have changed in the last few days.

The US knew that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, but expected the war to be over so quickly that it would not really matter. The military has planned for the closure of the Strait, so it cannot have been a surprise. Instead, as the Iranian regime has hung, closing the Strait has become its trump card (no pun intended).

The US is rushing ground forces to the region to take the Iranian territory bordering the Strait and Kharg Island, which exports 90% of Iran's oil. The expectation is that controlling most of Iran's oil sales and the Strait of Hormuz will bring the regime to its knees, which it probably will. But what if it doesn't? What if they hang on? What will we do next? Wars have a way of proceeding to their own logic, not the way either combatant wishes.

Fissures in the Trump administration have been papered over so far by the success of the war. But Vance and his group are against the war. He has reportedly voiced his opinions internally but has remained a loyal lieutenant publicly. If the war goes sour, this could be a problem for him in 2028 as he would struggle to explain his public support for a then-unpopular war. Trump's presidency hinges on the success of the war. MAGA strongly supports the war, so it could be a problem for Vance if the war is successful and his opposition to it comes out in the 2028 primary campaign.

US weapons have performed magnificently. Once again, the US and Israel are the only militaries in the world to have taken down an integrated air defense system. Russian and Chinese weapons have performed poorly. China has to fear that its military could easily be proven to be nothing more than expensive toys in a war with the US. But China can also see that economic pressure affects the US stock market, the oil and gasoline prices, and world markets. That could be its own best weapon.

While the munitions problem is not entirely solved, it has become clear that the US only needs the expensive missiles in the early stage of a conflict. Once we have air supremacy, we can bomb at will with cheap but effective gravity bombs. We still need to remove the manufacturing roadblocks, but the problem is not as severe as once thought.

Trump is the only president who has followed through with Iran. It should have been done long ago, but kudos to Trump for finally taking the bull by the horns.