As We Wait…

As we anxiously wait for five days, let’s assess.

One. The military gap between the two sides is unprecedented. At present, America and Israel are able to drop precision bombs wherever they want, whenever they want, and Iran is powerless to prevent them. Iran has a dwindling ability to fire sporadic rockets or drones at Israel and the neighboring Arab states. The rockets are not precise, and the odds are that 90% of them will be shot down before reaching their target. The drones are more precise, but their punch is less powerful, and they too are shot down 90% of the time.

Any normal objective assessment of the current military situation would conclude that this war should be over. Iran has no choice but to surrender.

Two: Our side is not fully united. America sees a nuclear Iran as a significant problem. Israel sees a nuclear Iran as an existential threat. America sees a non-nuclear Iran as a moderate problem. Israel sees a non-nuclear Iran as a slightly less imminent existential threat.

Three: "Existential Threat" is almost always an exaggeration. Not here. Iranian leadership is a religious death cult. They believe their life’s mission is to bring paradise to earth by way of Armageddon — The Last War. They don’t expect to survive the war — just to start it. Their preferred method is firing nuclear-tipped missiles into Israel and America. At the moment, their missiles can reach Israel, but not America … not yet. At the moment, despite decades of efforts, their nuclear ambitions remain unsatisfied.

Four: Of the three combatants, the strongest militarily is the weakest politically. Currently, America’s largest political party is not in power, and they are united by a single goal: to regain power. They can only agree to be against whatever the Republicans are for. Before America suffered a single casualty, Democrats condemned the war as illegal and unnecessary. The war was characterized as “dragging on” after one week.

Most of the American press is against whatever the Democrats are against, and that includes this war. The press minimizes American gains and maximizes American losses.

Separate from partisanship, American memories are full of quick (successful) military actions transforming into quagmires. Majority support for this military action will turn away if significant American casualties occur, regardless of the benefits those casualties would enable. The bottom line is that America, generally, and Trump personally, is highly averse to putting soldiers into Iran — and Iran knows it.

Five: Geography has given Iran a single large tactical advantage. Twenty percent of the world’s oil passes through a long, narrow strait adjacent to Iran. On a battlefield, nothing is larger, slower, less maneuverable, and more vulnerable than an oil tanker filled with oil. Two people with a shoulder-fired device can pop out of a hidden bunker and quickly cause an environmental and economic catastrophe. The threat of such a catastrophe can stop 20% of the world’s oil from getting to its customers.

America and Israel do not use that particular 20% of oil, but if it is stopped, prices for the entire world will rise significantly.

Six: Iran’s other advantage is that there are a great many things Iran does not care about. Iran does not care about the economic effects of a high worldwide oil price. Iran actually prefers a high price. Iranian leaders also do not care about the lives and well-being of the Iranian people. The vast majority of Iranians are not part of the religious death cult — the cult has been holding them hostage for 47 years.

Until Iran, all of the world’s murderous tyrants were motivated by dreams of empire filled with adoring subjects. Such tyrants cared about their empires and the people in them. Such tyrants would care if the people lost electricity. Such tyrants would care if industrial infrastructure were damaged. Iran’s leaders do not care. As a religious death cult, they believe they are on a mission from God. If need be, they will continue their quest without electricity and infrastructure.

In other words, overwhelming force is meeting an uncaring and immovable rock that sits next to a vital river of oil.

Seven: The current Iranian leadership is faceless and nameless. Any “deal” Trump negotiates will be with someone(s) who may or may not be able to deliver on any promises made. On the other hand, anyone who rejects any offer by Trump may or may not speak for the actual leadership.

Bottom line: The Number One path to a happy ending is for the 85% of Iranians who are not members of the death cult to rise up and take their country back. But the 85% are not armed. They have attempted uprisings many times, with each resulting in senseless mass murder. Nonetheless, I am confident it will happen, but I am not confident it will happen within five days.

Number Two path to a happy ending is for sane members of the death cult to take the reins of power. Logic and reason say this should happen. Logic and reason have been absent in Iran for 47 years.

G-Pub