Coronal Mass Ejections: Are You Paying Attention?

On February 7, 2020 I posted Coronavirus 2019n-CoV: Are You Paying Attention? Little did I know then how our world would change and would continue to be affected. I am posting today about coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the present magnetic storm that is invisible to us except in its effects. And those effects at the moment seem regionally inconvenient, just as did coronavirus in early 2020. And had it stayed there it would have been of little moment. But it did not, and CMEs have civilization-ending potential as much or more than a disease. Before you tune out, let me assure you that if this was just some "prepper" concern, entertaining as it would be for a niche audience, I would not bother to post. My intention, as it was in 2020, is to put something on your radar for consideration and thought.

There probably isn't a better starting point than this tweet from Bret Weinstein:

Existential risk from geomagnetic storms is only rivaled by risk from all out nuclear war. Even if our climate models were accurate (which is exceedingly unlikely) it’d be absurd to turn civilization upside down over warming while ignoring the vulnerability of the grid to CMEs.

Weinstein, as many of you may be aware, is an evolutionary biologist who, along with his wife, Heather Heying, gained popular notoriety when they publicly opposed forced racial segregation at Evergreen State College in 2017. They were "canceled" as a result and have pursued independent research and writing ever since. Weinstein was canceled a second time in raising skepticism about governmental policies in response to Covid including, most recently, the mass inoculations with mRNA "vaccines." His objections, when raised, have always been on scientific, not political, concerns. He views the world through an evolutionary lens, but with humility -- not overselling and readily acknowledging what is not known. Although an evolutionist, he is not antagonistic to religious faith. Although not persuaded that there is a G-d, my understanding is that he sees religious practice as an adaption that humans have found useful in successfully managing and improving their existence. In this regard he stands as a contrast to Richard Dawkins, a committed atheist and religious antagonist. (At least that is how I would contrast them from this October 2018 debate. The discussion I am focusing on occurs about 60 minutes into the discussion.)

This is a bit of a long introduction intended to offer Weinstein as a thoughtful and careful man, not prone to bomb-throwing and shallow analysis. So when something concerns him, I want to know more. And this is what concerns him:

• Our civilization is interconnected in ways heretofore never experienced. That interconnection is based on electrical energy.
• Our civilization is becoming fundamentally digital, reliant on electrical devices for nearly everything. And when he (I) say everything it includes every step of the supply chain that provides things that we no longer make for ourselves, the movement of goods and materials within those steps, and the financial system that compensates and procures assets for the entirety of the process.
• This electrified system could not exist given the constant bathing of our planet by sun-sourced electromagnetic phenomena, absent the invisible but measurable magnetosphere that shields us.

From Weinstein's perspective humans have evolved and developed systems that support more and more people in better and better ways. We also engage in destructive behaviors and systems. But the source of his (small "p") progressive philosophy is that we will make adaptive choices that better secure our futures. And so it is that he contemplates that a series of choices have been made to bring us to where we are and to the quality of life that we enjoy, but he worries that there are two great threats to our future: nuclear war and the destruction of our electrification system.

The former is wholly within the control of collective humanity. The latter is not. But there is variance in the damage to human existence that the combination of celestial events and human decisions produces. And here is where Weinstein's focus lies: We need to understand the risk we are taking when we are dependent on electrification and do little or nothing to protect those systems from CMEs.

In order to understand the risk, we need to understand the variables. And that is why, on Weinstein's podcast of May 10, he had Space Weatherman Ben Davidson on to both discuss the current space "storm" affecting Earth and what the science surrounding these storms is currently revealing. I recommend you watch the entire podcast if you can because the following summary of mine may not be as thorough or accurate as I want it to be:

This weekend our planet is engulfed in a space "storm" of an unusually high amount of electro-magnetic energy both generated by our sun and actually reaching the earth. The magnetosphere operates to shield us like an umbrella against rain. The magnetosphere is centered on two magnetic poles that in tandem form a barrier against that form of solar energy. Absent that barrier we would be constantly flooded with electro-magnetic energy and periodically that level of energy would increase to enormous levels when CMEs occurred and our planet happened to be in the path of the CME. But with the barrier in place we only have levels of electro-magnetic energy that might occasionally interfere with electronic transmissions of radio signals and electric transmission.

(Let me momentarily contrast CMEs with more popularly known phenomena EMPs [electro-magnetic pulses]. When "peppers" talk about EMPs they are usually referring to an effect created by a high-altitude explosion of a nuclear weapon. This explosion occurs within the atmosphere and within the barrier created by the two magnetic poles. The effect of an EMP and a CME are essentially identical if you have no magnetosphere.)

The magnetosphere is not fixed. That is, both the location of the poles and the strength of the magnetosphere vary over time. In fact, the polarity of the magnetosphere has reversed on our planet several times that scientists have detected and appears to have a periodicy of 6,000 years*. When the earth is in the process of a polarity reversal the magnetosphere weakens. And in its weakened state, more electro-magnetic energy from the sun reaches the earth. If CMEs occur within that time period and the earth is in its path, then the phenomena is intensified. If the intensity of the storm is high enough and the shield weak enough, then all electrical devices and systems are basically "fried." And, by the way, we're due for a polarity reversal now*.

But this isn't the worst. There appears to be a type of EMP that is galactic in scale. I don't think the source of that has been demonstrated, but the phenomena has apparently strong data support. And there is also a periodicy to that phenomena which (IIRC) is 12,000 years. The pulse is omnidirectional so that all galactic objects, including our sun, are subjected to this pulse. It is believed that when a sun is subjected to the pulse it can stimulate a "micro" nova which does not tear the sun apart but does generate enormous CMEs that either destroy or radically affect planets orbiting that sun. And, there is a possibility that the galactic EMP and our polarity reversal will coincide in time.

Taken together the calculus is pretty straightforward: When the magnetosphere weakens (which it already has and will) your electronic systems are a higher risk. If you do nothing to "harden" those systems (shield them from solar-sourced electromagnetic pulses) you are ensuring that when the magnetosphere weakens your electrical systems will fail when a strong enough space storm comes. There may be nothing that you can do to protect yourself, but doing nothing puts you at higher risk.

What does this mean for us individually or even nationally? As Davidson and Weinstein discuss, humans are likely to survive in some form, short of a massive micronova. If it's you, you will likely be without power, so you need to think about that. There is reason to believe that there have been micro nova events in relatively recent geologic time that have affected life forms in various parts of the planet but, planetarily, humans survived. The loss of magnetosphere protection during a polarity reversal, even absent a micro nova, will almost certainly create civilizational disruption. Can society actually do anything to minimize that disruption and avoid significant consequences? Yes, we could focus on decentralizing our power sourcing (think small nuclear generators) and hardening transmission systems and even structures that house electronic systems. Would that secure us against any and all cosmic storms? No, but not doing it exposes us to avoidable and predictable disruption and chaos. We insure our houses, property and our lives not because it will save us, but to mitigate loss. And when we consider how vulnerable we really are, it is just this side of insane not to do anything. And yet that appears to be where we are. After all, there is money to be made in gender affirming care, carbon sequestration, solar panels, wind farms, and (in the future) bugs as entrees.

Don't say no one invited you to pay attention.

*But see Comment #1 for a contra view.

P.S. In the podcast there is a fascinating discussion about evidence that the earth's crust and the mantle decouple periodically. Weinstein is intrigued but not persuaded. But whether or not that happens, the movement of the magnetic poles and polarity reversal appears to now be well established and is the basis for this post.