Pray for Syria

The unfolding situation in Syria has the potential to become a major catastrophe in a hurry. Turkish-backed Islamist forces have made serious advances with other attacking Sunni forces in other areas of the country. Simultaneously, US-backed SDF forces (some Arab, some Kurdish) have begun smaller advances against Syrian government forces. There are rumors of a coup with Assad out of the picture.

First: what happened? Basically, the renewed war in Syria is a side effect of the Israeli campaign in Lebanon and the war in Ukraine. The Assad cartel was a major drug dealer; manufacturing and selling approximately $60B a year in Captagon. This is as much as three times what the Mexican cartels sell altogether. The government is also backed by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. The last of these parties played a major role in Captagon trafficking.

What has happened to these backers? The war in Ukraine has seriously diminished the Russian capacity to project power. Meanwhile, Israeli success against Hezbollah has vastly diminished the Assad cartel's capability to distribute Captagon. Israel also eliminated Hezbollah's (and Iran's) reputation as a dominant regional force.

Basically, the three-legged stool of the Assad cartel lost a leg when Ukraine put up a strong resistance. They lost another leg a few months ago with Israel's campaign impacting their drug exports. And they lost their last leg when Hezbollah effectively surrendered, and Iran with them.

Assad is a bad guy. But if you thought he was the worst guy let me share this: as far as I know, almost every minority group in Syria may have hated him, but outside of the Kurdish regimes (where they could hope for something better), they supported him. Christians, Circassians, most Druze, Shia, and, of course, Alawites supported Assad. Why? Because they feared genocide at the hands of the dominant Arab Sunni (and Turkish Sunni) population. This population is about 75% of the total. From the Alawite perspective, they either fought a brutal war and brought in whoever would help them or they faced extermination. Now, they face genocide.

The roads for hope for these minorities are that:

• The Sunni Arabs don't slaughter them because they manage to switch sides. For example, some Druze have announced they've abandoned the government and Alawites might somehow convince whoever's next that they had little to do with the crimes of the Assad-based regime (there have been noises in this direction as well). Some Sunni leaders are publicly calling for toleration. However, when it comes to the suppression of religious minorities, the track records of the Arab Sunnis are mixed.
• That some Syrian government force is able to hold the Sunni Arabs at bay. Legitimate fear of genocide is a heck of a motivator. I believe it is one reason the likes of Jolani called for a tolerant society - it can undermine the fighting spirit.
• That those who haven't already run can now run somewhere to safety - quite possibly leaving their ancestral churches, etc... to be destroyed. That somewhere would be SDF-controlled regions or Lebanon.

Any of the above is possible, this is a complex region.

In the greater regional sense, what happens next is critically important. If an Iran-led Shia+ axis is receding, it could recede all the way to Iran. But in many places, there are some very nasty folk ready to take their place. The Kurds and the SDF are the greatest hope to hold them at bay. But the Kurds are under enormous pressure from Turkey, have grave internal divisions (including terrorist and Marxist elements), are really outnumbered. They do have US support, which has proven to be a powerful backstop. Hezbollah's collapse could ripple into Iraq and could actually hurt the prospects for Israeli-Saudi peace which is in part driven by a shared concern about Iran.

I know many of you have been praying for Israel. Keep it up!

But take at least a moment to pray for the minorities of Syria. Chances are pretty high that they're gonna need it.

Note: don't get me wrong, the fall of the Shia axis would be a massive short-term positive. However, in the long term I can't help but think that the designated terrorist organizations involved and the Erdogan-driven Turkish axis would ultimately do horrible things to regional stability, security, peace and of course society itself.