Election Prognostications: Mixed Signals, No Wave

Warning: this is a long post, but it's the kind you can skip over races you don’t care about to find the ones you do.

I made the case, with help from others, including the Washington Post and Echelon Insight’s Patrick Ruffini, that most of the public polls are off. The question is how much, and where. I also teed up how to watch the early returns in states whose polls close the earliest, starting with Kentucky (6 p.m. EST), for possible trends.

Today’s post walks through the closest statewide elections, including races for Governor, Attorney General, and possibly a few marquee House races. Later this week, once the results are known, I’ll talk through what the results portend for the next 120th Congress and key public policy issues. And wow, there are a lot of close races, but perhaps not as close as being advertised.

We’ll move east to west in no particular order, starting with Maine, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, and South Carolina. I covered Florida yesterday, which I don’t expect to surprise at the statewide level - it will remain reliably Republican and flip 1-3 Democratic House seats. Apologies if I skip over a state you may care about, like Arizona, Nevada, and Kansas. I really don’t think incumbent Senator Roger Marshall is in serious trouble, and he pulls out an albeit narrow victory. The GOP will also flip Kansas’s governorship. Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) won’t be successful in his campaign to do so in the Grand Canyon State.

Early Voting: Is It Predictive?

One factor I didn’t discuss yesterday, but it’s worth bringing up, is early voting, both by mail and in person. New records are being made throughout the country. As of midday Saturday (Halloween), some 51.3 million Americans had voted early, including 28 million in person (hand raised). At the same stage of the last mid-term election, 2022, 45.9 million had voted. Texas alone has seen a 44% increase in early voting this year compared to 2022; Minnesota is up 48% over the same period. Ohio’s in-person early voting has doubled; Virginia has also seen a huge increase, especially in its three most competitive US House races (all held by Republicans).

Democratic voters dominated the first days of early voting, according to several media reports. But over the past 10 days, GOP early voting has surged where it can be tracked (states like Texas, Georgia, and Virginia don’t register people by party). GOP consultant and pollster Matt Towery is noting a “silver surge” of senior GOP voters. At best, early voting trends measure voter enthusiasm, and many other surveys suggest rural and “soft” GOP voters aren’t as enthusiastic as angry Democrats. My friend Charlie Cook, founder of the Cook Political Report, observes a “red undertow,” especially in more rural red states. He noted that days before the surge in late GOP early voting.

While it’s changing, Democrats tend to vote early, especially by mail. Early voting nationally this year is trending 43.5% Democratic, 32.2% GOP, and about 24% Independent, according to the website onpointpolitics.us. This is about 10 points more “Democratic” than in the 2024 presidential cycle. The 2022 midterms would provide a better comparison, and more importantly, you need to look at individual states with the most competitive elections for the trends that might matter. The website provides few state-by-state comparisons to 2022. What I’ve seen elsewhere, comparing 2022 to 2026 early voting, is a rough equivalency.

For example, again from onpointpolitics.us:

“Nationwide, 2026 is 14% ahead of 2022 and 33% behind 2024. Democrats lead the ballots by 11.4 points, a 2.5-point swing toward the Democrats from this point in 2022,” reports the website. And that edge likely is not enough to suggest Democrats control the US Senate.

But as most astute prognosticators will tell you, early voting is not necessarily a great predictor of election outcomes, certainly no more than polling. Also, Republicans tend to show up in much larger numbers on election day.

What explains the late GOP surge in early voting? Some point to President Trump’s rallies and opening up his campaign coffers; others note the GOP’s major financial advantage in the final weeks of the campaign, and not just party coffers; the top five spenders in the 2026 election are Republican or Republican-leaning (see chart below). I can’t help but wonder if many GOP and independent voters aren’t terrified by the best-known Democratic candidates and their Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) exhortations, especially Michigan’s antisemitic, anti-Israel, and pro-Sharia Democratic nominee for US Senate, Abdul El-Sayed.

Voters are figuring out, perhaps, that DSA-aligned candidates in the House, as many as 20, will hold the balance of power in their caucus if they win control, which appears likely. Forget affordability; we’ll see endless impeachments; lawfare, witch hunts, investigations, and promised intimidation of Republicans in the Trump Administration and elsewhere, including major corporate supporters like Elon Musk. You’ll see demands for votes for DC and Puerto Rico statehood, expanding the Supreme Court, the “Green New Deal,” open borders (ending ICE), support for Iran, and “Medicare for All,” which would cost taxpayers an additional $3+ trillion per year, including 8-10 percent tax increases and an end to private health insurance.

Speaking of polling, El-Sayed’s primary win offers a great example of a huge polling miss. Democratic primary polling suggested a 15-point lead for him going into the open primary election (voters in Michigan don’t register by party and can choose which primary to vote in). El-Sayed toppled US Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) by a whopping .8%, or about 13,000 votes out of 1.5 million cast. Oops.

If McMorrow’s voters — she dropped out days before the election to consolidate votes against El-Sayed — had gotten the message and supported Stevens, she would have been the nominee. A narrow majority of Democratic primary voters opposed El-Sayed.

Here’s how I’m seeing key toss-up races:

Maine

Susan Collins has represented Maine in the US Senate since 1997, and has risen to chair the Senate Appropriations Committee. That’s a big deal in Maine, a poor state that relies heavily on federal largesse, including the naval shipbuilder Bath Iron Works. Six years ago, with Joe Biden handily winning the state, she trailed in every poll against challenger Sarah Gideon, some by double digits. Many predicted her demise. Bipartisan to almost a fault, Collins won by 9 percent while Biden carried the state by 10. Voters here, a state notoriously hard to poll (rural Mainers tend to vote more Republican), know and treasure Senator Collins. While she’s to my left politically, she’s one of the most effective and admired legislators in the US Senate.

Troy Jackson, the former St. Senate president better known as “Taxin’ Jackson,” is a poor campaigner with limited knowledge of federal issues and a record that has contributed to some of the highest utility rates nationally. During their debates, Collins repeatedly had to school the clueless Jackson on the difference between Medicare and Medicaid, programs Mainers know well. Jackson replaced the scandal-ridden, Nazi tattoo-wearing Graham Platner. Both Platner and Jackson have led in most polls, but it doesn’t matter. Collins wins, and it won’t be close.

As a bonus, former Gov. Paul LePage (R) is poised to help the GOP capture the upstate Democratic seat held by the retiring Jared Golden (D), the only Democrat in the House who voted against impeaching President Trump and the caucus’s least loyal member. Faced with threats against him and his family, Golden tossed in the towel.

New Hampshire

US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) looks poised to win a narrow race against former US Senator John Sununu (R-NH). Senator Jeanne Shaheen is vacating this now-open seat after defeating Sununu in the Democratic year of 2008 after a single term. Sununu is a legendary name in the Granite State’s politics, but younger brother Chris, who served as Governor for three terms, is the better-known and popular figure. The older Sununu has been out of the public eye for 18 years. If Chris had run, this race might have been a different story.

Current GOP Governor Kelly Ayotte, herself a former US Senator, is poised to win handily; will voters split their tickets, and to what degree? Will she help Sununu win in this intensely retail state? It’s hard to read, but I’m betting on Pappas winning a close election. Polls here don’t close until 8 p.m., and we’ll see how fast the networks declare a winner.

As for Pappas’ open seat, it’s rated D+2, so I expect the Democrats to hold it.

New York

The Empire State, as with much of the Northeast, has local and regional issues, along with personalities, that may counter national trends. For example, Republican Bruce Blakeman is keeping it close against incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul. I expect Hochul, as she did four years ago against current EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, a former House member, to win narrowly. But the polls are way off here — the most recent ones are under-sampling Republicans, and by a lot.

Hochul is not particularly popular and deserves criticism for anti-energy policies that make New York’s electricity and utility costs among the nation’s highest. New York’s high taxes and anti-business climate are also driving people away. A Blakeman victory is not likely, but watch this space. This is one state where local concerns may dominate over anti-Trumpism.

The better race to watch is the Attorney General’s contest between the execrable Letitia James and Republican upstart Saritha Komatireddy. Saritha’s ads and messaging have been the best of the election cycle, and she might be my favorite candidate this election. One poll has the race tied, and she cleaned James’s clock in their lone debate. I’ll go out on a limb and predict Saritha wins in an upset.

North Carolina

I covered this yesterday, so I’ll repeat: former Gov. Roy Cooper narrowly picks up a GOP-held seat. But watch for this race to tighten once the western region, hard-hit by Hurricane Helene a couple of years ago, is factored in during the closing hours. Conversely, the GOP should pick up one congressional seat with Laurie Buckhout unseating Democrat Dan Davis, albeit narrowly, in a redrawn seat. Republican Jennifer Balkom narrowly keeps the western 11th District in GOP hands. If I’m wrong, this is a bad omen for Republicans elsewhere; both districts have large rural votes, and that’s something to watch since rural GOP voters are less enthusiastic than most others.

South Carolina

This is my nominee for a potential upset, but probably not. Despite being a very poor candidate, appointed Senator Darlene Graham will probably win a narrow, lackluster victory in the heavily GOP state. Amy Andrews has proven to be a very good Democratic candidate, and I won’t be surprised if she wins. However, the strong GOP infrastructure, led by the highly popular US Sen. Tim Scott, the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, won’t want to be embarrassed by a loss. I’ll be watching closely on election night.

Georgia

This is the one southern state that is moving into purple territory. Incumbent Jon Ossoff is poised to win reelection and launch his presidential ambitions. But the governor’s race here is more interesting, with billionaire Republican Rick Jackson facing former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Bottoms. My analysis, shared by highly accurate prognosticator Seth Keshel, gives Jackson a narrow win.

Ohio

While the Buckeye State has trended red in recent years, now with complete control of statewide offices, that’s about to change. Amy Acton, the target of a controversial negative ad from the Vivek Ramaswamy campaign featuring Acton’s mother, looks poised to capture the governorship. Ramaswamy, while a solid and articulate conservative, has been a hard sell to the state’s electorate. Will he drag down appointed incumbent US Sen. John Husted, who is warding off a comeback by former Democratic United States Senator Sherrod Brown? Probably not. While both races will be very close, my money is on Husted to squeak out a 2-4 point victory.

The GOP loses one House seat as Max Miller goes down to defeat in an otherwise GOP district, thanks to controversies outlined yesterday (a nasty divorce involving the daughter of US Sen. Bernie Merino).

Michigan

This is the nation’s top Senate race. El-Sayed continues to narrowly lead in the polls, but he’s proven to be a terrible candidate with anger management issues and odious positions on several issues. Meanwhile, former US Rep. Mike Rogers is running a textbook campaign and clearly dominated El-Sayed in their debates. Rogers narrowly lost in 2024, despite Trump winning the state, but Senator Elise Slotkin was no El-Sayed. Rogers blows past El-Sayed, thanks to inroads among Black and Jewish voters and suburbanites who find El-Sayed unrelatable and too radical.

US Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI), who narrowly lost to El-Sayed for the nomination, has just endorsed Rogers.

As a side note, Jocelyn Benson keeps the governor’s office in Democratic hands, another example of ticket splitting making a comeback, especially in the Midwest. But if Rogers’s win turns into a rout, GOP gubernatorial nominee and US Rep. John James just might benefit.

On the congressional front, watch the marginal Lansing-based Seventh District race between the DSA-aligned William Lawrence, an upset winner in the Democratic primary, and freshman incumbent Tom Barrett. Here’s how CNN.com reported about Lawrence’s now-deleted X posts:

William Lawrence, the Democratic nominee in one of the country’s most competitive House races in Michigan, deleted hundreds of old social media posts in which he embraced police and prison abolition, called for nationalizing fossil-fuel companies to end their production, attacked moderate Democrats and argued for a “fundamental overhaul” of the Constitution.

Other deleted posts show Lawrence writing “f**k” the nuclear-family home and calling it an “isolating, individualistic, violent way of organizing society,” envisioning “a world of free and open migration,” and calling to “Abolish the Senate.”

Source: CNN.com

My money is on Barrett getting reelected, assuming Michigan voters aren’t crazy like Lawrence. But if he doesn’t, it will be part of a very bad trend for the GOP.

Iowa

Here’s my next candidate for serious ticket-splitting: Democrat Rob Sands, portraying himself as a center-right Democrat, looks poised to defeat Zach Lahn for the governor’s office. It will be close. Conversely, US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA), a talented former broadcaster and terrific candidate, looks like she’ll pull off a narrow win and keep the US Senate seat in GOP hands.

Iowa agriculture has taken the brunt of many Trump administration trade policies, not to mention rising diesel and fertilizer costs. Unhappy farmers vote for change, and Iowa has a history of electing Democrats when it suits them.

I’m also watching what happens to Dr. Marianette Miller-Meeks in the southeast Iowa U.S. House seat she’s barely held on to the past couple of elections. She won her first race by a whopping six votes - don’t tell me your vote doesn’t make a difference. She’s facing a rematch and may struggle to hold on to her seat, despite being a terrific candidate, amid serious headwinds.

Minnesota

This is one of those states where local issues - political corruption - may tilt at least two races to the GOP, the US Senate seat being vacated by future Governor Amy Klobuchar (D) and the Attorney General contest, where Keith Ellison, who turned a blind eye, if not facilitated, COVID-era spending program corruption, especially in the large Somali community in Minneapolis. You remember the “Quality Learing Center,” with no students but millions in government cash. The scandal led incumbent Governor and former Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walz to drop out of his reelection campaign. Several federal investigations are ongoing.

Former sports broadcaster Michelle Tafoya has turned the US Senate race into a toss-up against the far-left Lt. Gov., Peggy Flanagan, who has run a terrible campaign. The highly articulate Tafoya is the second-best chance, after Mike Rogers in Michigan, for a GOP Senate pick-up. Add to that the scandal involving US Rep. Ilhan Omar’s (D-MN) immigration (did she marry her brother and lie about her age on immigration documents?), and you have the makings of an upset. While Minnesota GOP victories in recent years have proven as elusive as the Great White Whale, and may do so again this year, the edge goes to Tafoya, as Klobuchar, to keep herself above the fray, tosses Flanigan under the bus.

Wisconsin

I’m watching two races carefully here: the governor’s race, featuring Milwaukee County executive David Crowley, an upset Democratic primary winner over the DSA-aligned Francesca Hong, and Republican US Rep. Tom Tiffany.

This was another polling miss. Most polls had Hong winning the nomination. Crowley dropped out to support Lt. Sara Rodriguez and consolidate the vote against Hong. But Rodriguez, mired in controversy and legal troubles, dropped out, bringing Crowley back into the campaign and thrusting him into the nomination.

But the path between Crowley’s initial campaign, his dropping out, and his re-entry has been one of those corruption stories dominating the media in these final days and weeks. According to a Daily Wire exclusive, Crowley took $250,000 from Rodriguez to drop out, along with a promise to find Crowley’s wife a job in a future Rodriguez Administration. We’ll see how that plays out, but I’m betting on a Tiffany victory.

There’s one House race I’m watching: Rep. Derrick Van Orden, the former Navy SEAL who won this seat from a Democrat four years ago, is in a tough reelection bid in Wisconsin’s Third District. He narrowly won in 2024, and it doesn’t look good for him. Both the Cook Political Report and Seth Keshel have Rebecca Cooke flipping this seat for the Democrats. I’m inclined to agree.

Pennsylvania

The Governor’s race is probably a foregone conclusion, with Josh Shapiro poised to be reelected as he prepares to run for President in 2028. State Treasurer Stacey Garrity, a strong candidate and proven vote-getter, simply hasn’t gained traction against Shapiro, despite his lackluster record. Shapiro is a smart retail politician, masterful at avoiding most controversies and staying as inoffensive as possible. Keystone State voters almost always re-elect their governors (gas-tax-raising Republican Tom Corbett is the only recent exception).

The races to watch here are two GOP incumbent House members: Ryan MacKenzie in the Lehigh Valley and Scott Perry, a former National Guard General and ex-head of the House Freedom Caucus, in the Harrisburg-based 10th District. Keshel predicts both will lose, but with MacKenzie having the better shot at keeping his seat. I think that’s probably correct, although both campaigns are closing very well. Brian Fitzpatrick in the marginal Bucks County-based First District is going to be fine.

Alaska

We won’t know the results of Alaska’s elections, including the controversial US Senate race, for several days, maybe longer. I’ve always felt that Dan Sullivan — the incumbent Republican, not “Decoy Dan Sullivan,” the former Democrat who was corruptly recruited by Democrats to confuse voters and tilt the election towards former US Rep. Mary Peltola — would win. I still do. Decoy Dan has vanished since the scandal broke.

Among so many other Democratic corruption stories dominating the media, this New York Times story is worth your time. The real Dan Sullivan will win, and Mary Peltola will rack up serious legal bills as federal and state investigations into her exploits continue, including those involving sleazy Democratic lawyer and Russia collusion hoax promoter Marc Elias’s firm and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Other Races

California will continue to descend deeper into Hell by electing empty suit former Biden-era HHS Secretary and former US Representative and Attorney General Xavier Becerra to the governorship and keeping Democrats in charge of their failing state. But kudos to Steve Hilton for running a terrific and entertaining campaign. His last web ad was hilarious. Nothing would make me happier than a Steve Hilton victory, but the once-Golden State is too far gone.

How do we sum this up? It will be a good, but not a great, night for Democrats. They’ll win the House with a net pickup of 10-14 seats, for a slim majority of about 6-10 seats, and pick up a couple of governorships (while possibly losing Wisconsin and definitely losing Kansas), but not as well as they are hoping. The GOP will hold on to the US Senate, and depending on the final voting trends, will have as few as 50 seats - with Vice President JD Vance keeping the chamber in nominal GOP control - to as many as 54 if the GOP sweeps the M states - Maine, Michigan, and Minnesota. Montana isn’t mentioned because the outcome for the open US Senate seat is not in doubt. The same is true of Nebraska, where US Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE) wins handily.

It won’t be the first time that the party in control gains seats in the Senate while losing the House. It happened in 2018 and again in 2022. It looks like it could happen again.

What I don’t have a handle on is whether Democrats will flip any state legislatures. That’s something to watch as well, as they come closer to making their National Voter Compact initiative — where states pledge their Electoral College votes to the winner of the national popular vote, which is probably unconstitutional — a reality.

Elections matter. So does your vote.