Get the Ricochet app

Ricochet will work fine in a browser on your mobile devices, but for the best experience please download our app.

Download on the App StoreGet it on Google Play

Become a member.

Tired of the toxicity of social media? Why not join Ricochet for just $5/month? Think of it as an online bar. Come in, have a drink, hang out, say whatever you want. But don’t badger, bully, or berate the other drinkers. That's our only rule.

Where’s the Beef?

Ekosj
@Ekosj
Join to bookmark15likesJoin to like41comments

Democrats, Socialists, and their PR wing - the mainstream media - have been hitting the "affordability" button hard and fast over the past few weeks. Recently they have zeroed in on beef prices.

"The price of ribeye steaks and burgers are soaring. Ground beef prices in the U.S. have surged 63% since 2020," says CNBC. Let's take a look...

In January 2020 - just ahead of the pandemic - ground beef prices averaged $3.886 per pound. In September of this year (most recent available), the average price was $6.323 per pound. That's certainly a 63% increase. But just about 2/3rds of that increase occurred during the Biden presidency. When 'Sleepy Joe' took office, prices averaged $3.965. When he left, they averaged $5.545. That's a 40% increase. Since Trump took office, average prices have gone from $5.545 to $6.323. That's up 14%. Don't get me wrong ... a 14% increase is bad. But it's not nearly as sexy as 63%, so that's what gets reported.

What's going on with beef? It turns out that the US cattle herd has been shrinking for years due to drought and rising costs for ranchers. Meat packers have turned to Mexican cattle to make up the US shortfall. But this spring, an outbreak of the screwworm parasite caused the Department of Agriculture to suspend Mexican cattle imports. A recent Trump proposal to increase imports of beef from Argentina was shouted down by lobbyists for ranchers. Why? The shrinking supply has really skyrocketed the price of live cattle. Since 2020 (I can play this game too), the live cattle price index has more than doubled, going from 179.3 in January 2020 to 377.6 in August 2025. However, 9/10ths of that increase occurred on Biden's watch. The index went from 161.2 to 309.169 while Team Biden was driving. That's an increase of 92%. Since Trump took office, the index has gone up another 22%. We have already discussed why.

Unfortunately, the President has chosen a response that is wrongheaded. He has pointed the finger at meatpackers for exploiting "their position as middlemen to overcharge grocery stores and, ultimately, families.” Looking at the price data above, it sure looks to me like that's exactly wrong. The numbers above suggest to me that the meatpacker's profit margins are getting squeezed. I understand that they are a convenient fall-guy, but I expect better from my President.

Notes:

  • Data come from the St Louis Fed's FRED data warehouse website.
  • Data series WPU0131 - Producer Price Index by Commodity: Farm Products: Slaughter Cattle, Index 1982=100, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted
  • Data Series APU0000703112 - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average, U.S. Dollars, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

This post was promoted to the Main Feed by an editor.

Discussion (41)

  • DonG (Here.We.Go.)@DonG
    Ekosj (View Post):

    It turns out that the US cattle herd has been shrinking for years due to drought and rising costs for ranchers.

    I don't believe this. The value of a cow is up over 100% and the cost of feed corn is up only 15% in the last 5 years. Why is the market failing to respond to price signals? Either the market is corrupt or economics has been wrong for 1000's of years.

    If I am Trump here is what I do:
    * import beef from Argentina
    * end ethanol subsidies that artificially raise the price of corn (sorry Iowa).
    * allow more meat processors (if there are regulatory hurdles)
    * enable whatever that Thomas Masse has been complaining about (allowing local processing of meat with federal permission)

  • DonG (Here.We.Go.)@DonG

    From Grok:

    The Thomas Massie Legislation on Meat Processing: The PRIME ActU.S. Representative Thomas Massie (R-KY), a farmer who raises grass-fed beef on his own property, has been a leading advocate for reforming federal meat processing regulations to support small-scale producers. His primary legislation in this area is the Processing Revival and Intrastate Meat Exemption (PRIME) Act. This bipartisan bill aims to decentralize meat processing by empowering states to oversee intrastate sales of custom-slaughtered meat, reducing the burden of federal USDA inspection requirements that often force small farmers to travel long distances to large facilities.Background and Purpose

    • Core Issue Addressed: Under the Federal Meat Inspection Act (as amended by the Wholesome Meat Act of 1967), custom-slaughtered meat (processed for the animal's owner) is exempt from federal inspection but cannot be sold—even within the same state. Farmers must use USDA-inspected facilities for any sales, which are scarce (often hundreds of miles away) and backlogged, leading to high costs, supply chain vulnerabilities, and consolidation in the meat industry dominated by a few large packers.
    • Goal: The PRIME Act would expand the custom exemption to allow states to permit the sale of custom-processed meat (e.g., beef, pork, lamb) directly to consumers, restaurants, hotels, boarding houses, and grocery stores within state borders, provided states set their own safety standards. This promotes local food systems, rural economies, and consumer access to traceable, sustainably raised meat without compromising safety.
  • Ekosj@Ekosj
    ReplyingtoDonG (Here.We.Go.)
    Ekosj (View Post):

    It turns out that the US cattle herd has been shrinking for years due to drought and rising costs for ranchers.

    DonG (Here.We.Go.) (View Comment):

    I don’t believe this. The value of a cow is up over 100% and the cost of feed corn is up only 15% in the last 5 years. Why is the market failing to respond to price signals? Either the market is corrupt or economics has been wrong for 1000’s of years.

    If I am Trump here is what I do:
    * import beef from Argentina
    * end ethanol subsidies that artificially raise the price of corn (sorry Iowa).
    * allow more meat processors (if there are regulatory hurdles)
    * enable whatever that Thomas Masse has been complaining about (allowing local processing of meat with federal permission)

    Believe it. The shrinking herd accounts for the doubling in price. Supply & Demand works. Per Omaha Steaks President and CEO Nate Rempe " the herd is at a 70-year low, demand is at an all-time high and the net result is prices are through the roof"

    As for the rest of your proposals ... I'm on board!

  • E. Kent Golding@EKentGolding

    Prices generally skyrocketed under Biden because he dumped tons of "free money" into the economy & increased regulations on everything. . Rightly or wrongly, people hoped that either prices would go back down under Trump or wages would catch up. The rate at which prices are increasing may have slowed, but is still substantial. Wages are pretty stagnant, and the job market (at least in SE MIchigan) is poor. Deficit spending is neither declining nor leveling off.

    I agree with ending ethanol subsidies. In general, reducing regulations is good for the economy, although I do like sufficient ( not excessive ) regulation to ensure a safe food and drug supply.

    One thing Trump could do to both increase employment and reduce prices would be to both cut tariffs, and to make tariff rates more predictable. American Tariffs are paid by people in America, not by people outside of America. Arbitrary, chaotic and fast changing tariffs make it difficult to. plan and justify investment. And yes, cut the tariffs on Argentinian Beef as well as everything else. I do not want a government planned economy or state capitalism, even if the republicans and Trump are doing the planning.

Scroll for later comments
+36 more comments
Join the conversation

You're seeing five of 41 comments. Sign in, or join for just $5 per month, to read them all and add your own.