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Social Security and Medicare are so popular they are commonly known as the “third rail” of politics. Any politician who touches them gets a nasty shock. The politically smart thing for decades has been to periodically increase benefits and not worry too much about adequately funding these supposedly self-sufficient programs.
Congress designates SS/Medicare as non-discretionary spending, which allows even fiscal conservatives to earnestly explain that Congress is unable to touch them, not even to reduce the benefits increases they themselves bestowed in the past. Which is ridiculous since Congress could legally eliminate the programs if it chose to do so (not recommended).
As the population has aged and birth rates have fallen, SS/Medicare have descended into serious financial distress. This year, the programs will spend $69 billion more than they take in. The programs’ trustees recently moved the date for expected insolvency up to 2031 for Medicare, 2034 for Social Security.
Yet there is a little acknowledgment from the political class that a problem exists. To acknowledge it creates a mandate for making highly unpopular choices. Even Donald Trump, the would-be “conservative” leader, has decreed that no part of making America great again will involve touching our major entitlements. The endless quest for re-election continues to dominate decision-making in Washington.
Even beyond entitlements, America has a spending problem. The federal government spends about 25% of GDP but only takes in revenues of 19%. The rest is charged to future generations. With interest rates returning to normal levels, federal debt service will soon exceed $1 trillion a year, roughly what we spend to defend our country.
Why do we continue to spend so recklessly in times of peace and prosperity? It’s partly our perverse politics, where spenders dare opponents to suggest fiscal reforms and then rip them for bringing it up.
It’s also a mindset. Not long ago, families were considered the primary caregivers for each other. It was contemptible to neglect your own.
Americans today believe they are entitled to have government assume what were formerly family duties. Politicians gain millions of grateful dependents and family structure suffers, but there’s no going back.
Federal decision-makers have adopted an all-purpose solution to the problems that plague us: throw dollars at it. Schools failing? Send money. Semiconductor industry struggling? More money. People still living in poverty? Appropriate even more money. Money papers over our problems but affords no actual solutions.
Nobody even talks about the monetary implications of our ongoing border crisis. Over seven million mostly unskilled illegal immigrants breached our borders. Immediately upon successfully registering their fraudulent asylum claims they expect food, shelter, medical care, transportation, eventually education and social services all without a thought of paying for them.
The direct and indirect costs are incalculable, but California already reports annual direct expenses of $21.76 billion while Texas pays $8.8 billion and Arizona $3.2 billion.
Yet Democrats contend only more money can solve the problem. Biden and border czar Kamala Harris claim Republicans are responsible for the border mess because they once blocked further spending increases, even though the money goes to accommodate more illegal immigration. It’s time to end this massive farce and lawfully control the border. Democrats will have to find some less costly way to recruit future voters.
Our response to the Covid epidemic was another giant boondoggle. There wasn’t much to do about the virus. Protect the vulnerable, treat the ill, develop a vaccine and allow it to run its course.
Instead we embraced an orgy of spending. Trillions went to infrastructure improvements, solar energy, daycare, schools, businesses, and even individuals, all inexplicably in the name of Covid. It didn’t affect the course of the disease but our descendants will pay for this spree far into the future.
It gets worse. In 2025, the spending caps on Obamacare and other discretionary items are set to expire as are the low-interest bonds the government issued when money was cheap. There will be tremendous pressure to spend yet more just to maintain the spending status quo.
Thomas Jefferson 250 years ago extolled the benefits of a “wise and frugal” government. We didn’t listen. We will soon wish we had.
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Discussion (8)
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You can't control spending when the Federal Reserve continually produces inflation for God Knows Why. 2% inflation advances human flourishing because...pfttt. They should have created deflation ever since the USSR fell.
Furthermore, there is no utility in government producing "non-public goods", except for possibly Medicare and Social Security, if they are run honestly, which they are not.
Any way they resolve this is going to be brutal.
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Uneducated immigrants = deflation
Automation, artificial intelligence, uneducated illegal immigrants, and globalized labor = deflation
So the Federal Reserve creates inflation by force.
Real [REDACTED] genius.
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I was at a large gathering of one of the major bank's customers in my city. This was 15 to 20 years ago. They had some of their hotshot smart guys from NY City as lecturers and were discussing inflation as opposed to deflation. I stood up to ask why is inflation so much better than deflation. I was thinking that deflation increased the value of my money, while inflation had the opposite affect. But I was soundly thrashed for even broaching the thought. The concept is that economies must constantly grow to sustain improved standards of living. But is it really growth if all you are doing is inflating the value of existing equity? OTOH, deflation takes equity and makes it less valuable. Not good either. This is why assigning these decisions to appointed people is very scary. The Federal Reserve is an institution that I do not understand.
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Nice post Mr. Patterson. Unfortunately we continue to elect politicians who are too cowardly to control our bad habits. It takes a great deal of wisdom and an even greater strength of spine to say no to spending. It's like an opiate addict getting clean. They have to hit rock bottom. But what does rock bottom mean to us citizens? It gives me chills just thinking about that.
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The economy is constantly producing deflation in almost every aspect. Equity can adjust. What can't adjust is politicians and Big Finance Otherwise Known As Lending Etc.
Thusly, the debt to GDP gets out of control and all of the idiots whine about the immorality of ... something.
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