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This article in the Washington Post is behind a paywall, but it was very interesting.
"The biggest challenge China faces right now isn’t the Trump administration and its campaign to decouple the world’s two biggest economies. It comes from within: China is experiencing population decline on a scale and at a speed the world has never seen."This will create ripples that will be felt across China and the world for decades to come. The impact on China’s long-term growth rate could imperil Beijing’s mission to become a global power to rival or replace the United States. And the huge shortage of labor will potentially affect supply chains of products including Barbie dolls, shoes, mobile phones and electric vehicles.“It’s almost impossible to reverse a demographic decline,” said Louise Loo, the head of Asia economics at research firm Oxford Economics. She estimated China’s shrinking workforce could shave 0.5 percent off annual gross domestic product growth over the next decade."
It goes on to give historical background on China’s birthrate reduction efforts - starting with encouraging small families and later enacting laws against having more than one child - including heavy fines and forced abortions. They realized their mistake and began easing the policies in 2015, allowing "parents to have two children in 2016, then three children in 2021. But birth rates have not rebounded.” And going forward, last month Beijing began offering a new subsidy of about $500 a year for the first three years of a child’s life.
Despite the legal changes and the government subsidies now being offered, the prevailing attitude of people of childbearing age is to limit the number of children they have, or to have no children at all. The reasoning appears to be that child-rearing is too demanding, too expensive, and not compatible with career goals or personal enjoyment of life. Working in factories and manufacturing has also come to be less and less attractive.
The article gives graphic examples of the decline in population historically and now, with the projections for the future:
"China is now on an alarming trajectory. The United Nations projects that in 2050, China’s population will fall to 1.26 billion and the age distribution will worsen: About 10 percent will be under 15 years old — but about 40 percent will be over 60."By 2100, China’s population will more than halve to 633 million, according to U.N. projections. A mere 49 million people, or 7.8 percent, will be under the age of 15. In contrast, almost half — a staggering 52 percent — will be over the age of 60."
There are fewer and fewer “new” Chinese, and they are living longer. So China will have a shrinking workforce and a growing older population that will need support. And it’s not likely that they can ease the shortage through immigration. First, historically and culturally, China has never welcomed outsiders. And second, they would have to offer large incentives to encourage people to immigrate to a country with a government that is still largely oppressive.
They may be right about the potential negative effect on the rest of the world. However, I can’t help feeling that this may be good news for the West. Anything that hurts China can’t be entirely bad for us, can it?
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Discussion (47)
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The question I would ask in this assumed context is, without Christianity, who cares? I don't mean this as a flippant response, but seriously.
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Without Christianity for them? Not sure what you mean.
I meant that their problem may be a benefit to the West politically, economically, and for national security.
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Have you not noticed how much effort Western governments are putting in to eliminate Christian influence in their cultures? Anything operating to eliminate free speech is geared to that outcome. And America's birthrate outside Christian families is in line with what's happening in China. Same for most of Europe except there Islamic migration may give them a different outcome but it will include a big loss of freedom.
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While I don't wish ill on the Chinese people (who are themselves victims of their noxious government), I am very much in favor of China experiencing a demographic collapse that prevents a nation with their frankly evil government from achieving global domination on a par with our own. As it is it's going to be a near thing, their race between rising power and falling labor supply. They are getting good at too many things too quickly for me, despite my habitual optimism, to be entirely confident that we will stay ahead of them -- particularly given the degree to which so many of our own institutions have embraced mediocrity.
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I think the level of China's, corruption and groupthink will still inhibit it from rising as quickly as you think.
As for our country, there is a reaction against the woke DEI nonsense that has weakened us for decades. It seems that every day normies are moving against this nonsense.
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