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Yes, I saw the headline job numbers for May. Non-Farm employment, as measured by the Establishment Survey, was up by 172,000. That's almost double what was expected. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But these numbers don't separate out full-time from part-time employment. As I have been saying for years, my go-to job numbers come from the Household Survey - employed - usually work full-time. (That's BLS data series LNS12500000) Full-time jobs are the kind of jobs you can build a life around. And full-time employment stinks! In May, full-time employment DECLINED by 78,000. That's on top of a drop of 424,000 in April. In fact, so far this year, full-time employment has averaged a DECLINE of 53,600 per month. That's worse than dreadful!
A peek behind the curtain shows that all those jobs trumpeted in the headlines are part-time jobs. Looking at the Household Survey again shows that in May, part-time jobs increased by 266,000. Despite May's gain, part-time employment is down for the year, too.
Part-Time Employment - BLS data series LNS12600000
I’m not sure what is going on in the overall economy, but it isn’t good.
Fair is Fair. I said the same things about Obama's Jobs numbers. For comparison, I said the very same things back in 2015 when Obama was President:
The Grim News in Today’s Job Numbers › Ricochet (May 8, 2015)
Despite the positive headlines, the REAL story in the April jobs numbers is this:
FULL-TIME EMPLOYMENT DECLINED BY 252,000 IN APRIL!
I know the headline number was that employment grew by 223,000 in April. But... Whenever we are talking about the health of the economy, my go-to number is the BLS data series “Employed-Usually Work Full Time.” Full-time jobs are the kind of jobs that give an employee the opportunity to build a life around. Part-time employment, not so much. This number comes from the Household Survey. The Household Survey is the same data set used to calculate the official unemployment rate. So the data is unimpeachable. Today’s report shows that full-time employment declined from a level of 121,024,000 in March to 120,772,000 in April. A loss of 252,000 full-time jobs. (You can easily find this number yourself at the user-friendly St. Louis Fed’s FRED data library site. Look for data series LNS12500000)
68,400 Per Month › Ricochet (July 2 2015)
No, it isn’t my monthly income. It is the average number of full-time jobs created each month since January.
The just-released-today jobs numbers indicate that the number of full-time jobs in June was 121,053,000. This represents a DECLINE of 359,000 full-time jobs since May. You remember May. The media was positively giddy over the grand jobs numbers for May. Not so much for June.
But let’s not get exercised over one month’s numbers. Let’s look at the overall trend. In January, full-time employment was 120,711,000. That works out to an average of 68,400 full-time jobs per month so far this year. And that is absolutely dreadful.
You can see for yourself at the St Louis Fed’s FRED website. Look for data series LNS125000 – Employed, Usually Work Full Time.
I’m not sure what is going on in the overall economy, but it isn’t good.
Discussion (26)
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The labor force is flat to declining. I'll assert that this is Boomers retiring with fat 401k's. GDP now force for Q2 is 3.0% growth, which is pretty good. This should all be good for GenY & GenZ that need the senior jobs that Boomers are holding. However GenY and GenZ are unhappy, because they are looking for "no show" work from home jobs. The economic policies from Fauci Flu will impact the economy for decades.
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Unless people are retiring in their 40's and 50's it looks like it's not retirees. The labor force level of 25-54 year olds has gone down by about 900,000 since Dec 2025
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By the end of 2015, the number full-time jobs rose from 121.1 million in June to 122.7 in December, which translates to an average growth of almost 270,000 full-time jobs a month. Not "absolutely dreadful" in the least.
IOW, the concern back in July 2015 turned out to be unwarranted, thankfully.
During the same period last year, full-time employment declined by an average of ... 225,000 per month. Yet, ... no "worse than dreadful" aftermath occurred. Not even close.
Onward.
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This is terrible news but doesn't surprise me. The labor force was damaged by the virus, and it seems the desire to work and learn declined with the numbers. Is part of it these ongoing large layoffs and let-go's in the tech sector and also other companies due to AI? Many of those that helped build this stuff are being given the shuffle to the door!
Also, the stock market keeps smiling but the reality for people is not sunny. Costs are up for everything, especially the basics and I doubt will return to affordable. But Vanguard has had the best year ever so far! See what's going on here?
This misery in Iran, with the Strait not able to be shipping, is causing strains everywhere, plus energy is in the dump.
From AI Overview: ExxonMobil issued a stark warning that global oil inventories are rapidly approaching unprecedented, critically low levels due to severe supply shocks. [1, 2]Exxon executives state that emergency reserves and existing stockpiles have masked the true extent of the shortage caused by the conflict-driven closure of the Strait of Hormuz. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/28/oil-inventory-exxon-strait-hormuz-iran-war.html
This affects all goods and services - it affects hiring. Thank you for highlighting the reality here!! Hope this goes to the Main Feed.
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It isn't, in terms of its predictive value. See comment #3 for some historical perspective.
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