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I've done some analysis on the exit polls, comparing the results of Trump/Harris 2024 with Trump/Biden 2020. I've come up with two graphs that you may find interesting.
Both graphs show Trump's increased or decreased margin of victory for various groups, with a positive number indicating that Trump did better among that group, and a negative number indicating that he did worse. As an example, Trump's margin of victory changed by -5% (i.e. it decreased) among white voters, who he won by a margin of 12% in 2024 (55%-43%) and won by a margin of 17% in 2020 (58%-41%)
The main graph is an attempt to show three groupings on a single graph -- race, religion, and sex:
As you can see, Trump lost ground among white voters slightly, was essentially even among black voters (1% improvement), but did far better among Latinos, improving his margin by 25%.
By religion, Trump's big gain was among Catholics, improving his margin by 20%. He also did better among religious "others," but this is a much smaller group than Catholics. Catholics are 22% of the electorate, "others" are 10%.
Trump improved marginally among both men and women, but I don't find the difference between these to be notable.
The polls are from CNN, for 2024 and 2020, respectively. The polls don't give crosstabs between Catholics and Latinos. I expect that Latinos are a substantial part of the overall Catholic vote, but I don't know how much.
Focusing on these two groups with significant change:
- Trump did not win Latinos, but improved from a 33% deficit in 2020 (32%-65%) to a mere 8% deficit in 2024 (45%-53%).
- Trump flipped Catholics, winning by a 15% margin in 2024 (56%-41%) after losing by a 5% margin in 2020 (47%-52%).
One fairly simple interpretation of these results is that Catholics were more inclined to vote for one of their own, Joe Biden, in 2020. (This isn't meant as a criticism, by the way.)
The second graph is sex-by-race, which shows the male-female aspect of Trump's major improvement among Latinos:
Trump's margin among Latino men improved by a whopping 33%. After losing Latino men 36%-59% in 2020, he actually won this group in 2024, 54%-44%. His improvement among Latino women is also notable, though overshadowed by the huge swing among the men.
There are other ways to parse the electorate, so I don't want to imply that the Latino and Catholic swings are the only factors of importance. I do find them notable.
Discussion (49)
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Exit polls skew liberal because they are self selecting. I prefer Pew's Verified Voter surveys. That said, I think this says a lot:
Young women under 30 are miserable and want someone to care for them - and they're ignoring the men that are increasingly fed up with the feminized world they're forced to deal with.
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Nicely done!
Non-hispanic Catholics have always been a key swing vote. They are a big chunk of Reagan Democrats, the anti-McGovern and anti-Dukakis voters. Like southern protestants, they tend to have had a higher rate of military service. Unlike southern protestants, they are not as moved by 2A issues and are actually less net pro-life than evangelicals. Crime, sexual deviance, anti-patriotism combined with cost-of-living pressures can generate a large-scale desertion from their ancestral Democratic party home.
Bob Casey Sr., father of the empty-suit zombie who is currently losing his senate race, was once the quintessential Catholic politician--staunchly pro-life, pro-union, patriotic, pro-safety net. The Clintons literally kicked him out of the party and it was testament to the political incompetence and tone deafness of Bush and Dole that they could not fashion a campaign to capitalize on that.
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I don't entirely agree, as there are other obvious motives. I think that your point is good, but is not very important as an explanation.
Women want to be able to kill their babies. This, in my view, is the main reason that there is a gap of roughly 10% between the male and female vote, at every age level. This issue is most important to women under 30, because they are the ones who are most likely to have babies that they want to kill.
This seems to be what occurs, just about universally, when women get political power. They adopt laws making sure that they can kill their babies.
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A minor point that I left out of the main post.
Of the groupings by race, religion, and sex, the most pro-Harris group was blacks, who favored Harris by 74% (12%-86%).
The second most pro-Harris group was Jews, who favored Harris by 58% (21%-79%).
I left small groups like Jews, Asians, and "other" race people out of the main analysis, to make the graphs more readable. In addition, as to Jewish voters in particular, the 2020 exit polling showed the category but did not report figures, explaining that the sample was too small.
Jews are just 2% of the electorate, and Asians and "other" race people are 3% each.
It is possible that the figure for the Jewish vote refers principally to religious Jews. "Jewish" is not a racial or ethnic category in the exit polls, but is a religious category. It's possible that a secular Jew might choose "Other" or "None" as a religious category.
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I don't think this is meaningful because:
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