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John Hinderaker posted an article on Powerline Blog showing that people trust Democrats on crime more than they trust Republicans. Here's a link. Evidence of a Blue Wave. With an electorate like that, how could Republicans win?
Maybe the crazy poll result is revealing something different. Maybe it shows that Republicans really are being undercounted, and not by a small amount.
People can't have changed that much.
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I stopped answering polls. Let 'em guess and be surprised on election day.
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Yes, I supposed most of us criminals are doing that.
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Polling is both science and art. The science says that after polling 1,000 to 1,500 people you’re in the sweet spot of ±3.1%. A poll of 10,000 isn’t significantly more accurate to justify the effort.
The art is identifying the likely voter. That’s why polls in 2020 were horrible. Because of the pandemic millions who would not have normally voted did vote.
@StevenSeward has it right. The idea that polls are psyops or propaganda is what the losers say. Any forecast that says one candidate is more likely to win than the other is just as likely to suppress turnout for either candidate.
Campaign polling is more thorough media polling. They’ll pay the extra money to get their candidate and their party’s message more in line with the thinking of the electorate. As was pointed out last week on the Flagship Podcast discussion with Henry Olsen, just look where they’re sending Trump. He’s in so-called red states, stumping for statewide candidates that should be cruising.
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My guess would be it mainly reflects the wall-to-wall coverage of ICE. Moderate Democrats who until recently might have been willing to admit that their party was a tad soft on crime now view the same question as a chance to voice their moral indignation over alleged ICE abuses and overreach.
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While there might be few push polls, and rigged question polls done for propaganda reasons, I think the major polling firms have an overwhelming incentive to be accurate. Its just hard to do so. For example Henry Olson on a recent podcast said everyone knows Republicans are undercounted there is just no scientific method to correct for it. Any attempt to do so is guessing.
OTOH, when it comes to financial incentives, I think it is news/opinion media that has incentives to make it seem like its going to be close. Who cares to follow it if it's going to be a blow out. I frequently listen to Halperin's morning meeting podcast which has recently focused almost exclusively on the mid-terms. One day its going to be a blowout and the next its all about all the reasons it might not be. I cannot help but think it's a programming decision to try and sustain interest.
As for the election, there are lots of reasons to think it will go badly. Still there is a reason they still play football games on Saturday even when the odds overwhelmingly favor one team. Upsets do happen (fingers crossed on Michigan and Minnesota senate races)! In this case despair never helps and hope is a virtue.
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