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Many have commented on the strategic stupidity of Iran attacking the Gulf States (Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, and Oman), as well as British and French bases in Cyprus and Abu Dhabi. But I mark this misunderstanding down to the secularism of American elites and commentators. They don't understand people who have a religious worldview. These secular elites think it foolish to attack countries with whom you are not at war.
But the Iranian leadership deeply believes in the reappearance of the Mahdi, one of the pivotal beliefs of Twelver Shiism. They believe that the Mahdi is the twelfth legitimate successor of Muhammed, that he was born in 868, and that he has been kept hidden (in occultation) until Islam and the world enter a general crisis of unbelief, chaos, and war. Then he will reappear and set things right. You may believe this doctrine is foolishness (as do I), but the Iranian ayatollahs believe it with all their souls. Facing the existential crisis of Epic Fury and Roaring Lion, they see no alternative but to provoke a general conflagration in the Middle East to bring about the reappearance of the Mahdi.
I don't believe there is a Mahdi or that Islam is a true religion. But we should understand what is motivating their strategy. I think their strategy will fail under the combined power of Israel and America. But as someone who believes in the supernatural world, I do understand their strategy—however misguided it may be.
Discussion (30)
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Smart post. It is important to understand the motivations and thoughts of your adversaries.
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And accept that the intentions are real, not just stupid or laughable. People act on stupid intentions every day. The mullahs and their adherents have demonstrated they will act.
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Great post! It is instructive for more than just this conflict but for their strategy overall. It implies that, were they to become a nuclear power, they would not be deterred by MAD. All the more reason that they can NEVER be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon. They will absolutely use it.
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Just how severe is this divide between Shia and Sunni Islam? Do we have someone in this conversation who can address this?
I have the impression that we have active immigration to Western, mostly Christian cultural nations, by both sects of Islam, but for different purposes, some to live in peace and others to foster the creation of chaos or actually commit what we deem terrorist acts.
America is in the throes of a similar divide, politically based, between Democratic Socialists and supporters of the American founding based democratic representation in the American Republic.
Iranian-based Shia Islam is a major threat to America, especially with nuclear weapons capability.
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The Triggernometry podcast has a great explanation of this in an interview with "former MI6 spy Aimen Dean and NYT bestselling national security journalist Richard Miniter" posted on March 2. I highly recommend it.
I get the audio version here:
podbean.com
Open link
The YouTube version is here:
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