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The unintended consequences of Biden's public statement that may have given Putin the green light of an acceptable 'minor incursion' into Ukraine as well as the bungled Biden bugout of Afghanistan have created a worldwide disaster.
The blame game of three years of war between Ukraine and Russia has been a boon to any number of bloggers and politicians. Misinformation, like razor wire, entangles politicians on all sides in finger-pointing and feeding fear to the public.
The ISW March 3 report on the Russia-Ukraine War includes several maps on the front lines where success and failure are measured in kilometers. The report is detailed, and there are more maps than just the one I will post in this essay.
Key Takeaways:
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Ukrainian military intelligence indicated that about 620,000 Russian soldiers are operating in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast, an increase of about 40,000 personnel compared to late 2024.
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Russian authorities reportedly exceeded their recruitment quotas in 2024 and January 2025, likely in part due to increased financial incentives for recruits and prison recruitment efforts that are unsustainable in the medium- to long-term.
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Russian forces continue to innovate their strike packages and leverage larger numbers of Shahed and decoy drones in an attempt to penetrate Ukraine's air defense umbrella.
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Russian missile production has reportedly not significantly increased, but Russian forces appear to be prioritizing production of missile and drone variants that are more effective against Ukrainian air defenses.
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Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Velyka Novosilka and in Kursk Oblast.
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The Kremlin continues to promote its "Time of Heroes" veterans' program as part of efforts to militarize the Russian government and society.
Discussion (16)
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Thanks so much for this….some excellent information and thoughts here!
I already posted my thoughts in another thread but thought this was worthy of discussion.
1. I am very disappointed in many historians, FP wonks, and commentators whom I greatly respect for continuing to argue that Russia’s collapse is eminent and all we need to do is keep sending money and weapons. We are on year 3 now; has Russian performed poorly over all..yes they have…are they the Russia of 1942-1988…no they are not…but they are also not a country that is going to collapse or just end the war in the next year or two because we are sending Ukraine money and weapons. Who is going to fight with those weapons on the Ukrainian side in the next year? Those who have fled Ukraine of military age aren’t rushing back to defend the fatherland. No…if the policy is for Putin to pay a price for invasion and to leave the Donbas and Crimea then Ukraine needs fighters…and since I’m pretty sure the Men in the Mountain are not coming that means fighters from NATO/U.S. This is a mathematical certainty and all those pundits I’m disappointed in know this. Russia will not collapse anytime soon imho.
2. The Biden Administration gets all these accolades for holding NATO together etc…what has that really done accept create a line that has barely moved since early 2023. On November 1st was there any indication of Russia leaving the territories it has gained? Not that I’m aware. The Biden Administration and our policy really has been to do the bare minimum so we can sleep at night and have some good press headlines and so pundits could beat their chests. How much closer is Russia really to collapse? What indications are there that if the Trump Administration kept the same Biden policy and even increased it that Russia would collapse in the next year? Any evidence of that besides the same evidence of the past 2 years? The Biden policy is a failure pure and simple
3. If the Biden Administration was serious what they should have done was get after it to begin with. Go to the UN…put global pressure on Russia…make serious diplomatic overtures to China and India to sanction Russia. I mean look if this is such an existential threat like WWII then act like it…get out in the world get a multi-national response. Russia with all its weaknesses is still big enough that NATO alone cannot impress it to withdraw with just some money and war materials. It calls for a tough response that will be messy and dirty. We are trying to have it both ways…just like we always do…I mean in 1939 if FDR had led a response to the Soviet invasion of Finland and Hitlers saber rattling in Poland he could of have had a multi country response but nope…we took the easy way out until Pearl Harbor and Germany’s declaration of war…same thing here…we’ll just give money and some weapons to Ukraine (never recognizing the demographic issues) and it will be fine.
4. As I said in an earlier post…I’m not sure the right tactic…what I am confident of is that just giving weapons and money is not going to end this in the next year or maybe even 2. So we are left with the option of getting real about this…with true global sanctions on Russia and a real military presence or we try a reset like the Trump Administration…is it the Trump path correct? very debatable and I’m skeptical….but it is worth debating and not just yelling Putin stooge for trying a different tactic.
Finally…going back to the OP…the Biden Administration…The Obama Administration and the Bush Administration and some of Trump 1 got us here. However most of it is on Biden…if they had enacted policies that truly match the crisis they argued it was then maybe we are in a different space now. Now options are running short.
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In my opinion a cease fire would have to come first before you can have any lasting peace agreement or treaty. The cease fire agreement between Russia and Japan after WWII has not resulted in a peace treaty, but it has lasted since the end of WWII.
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Maybe just because Japan (probably) has nukes. (I don't recall if they officially acknowledge it or not.) There were definitely good reasons at the time for Ukraine to give theirs up, but it could still have been a long-term mistake.
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The only nukes Japan have is when a US Ohio class sub is in Japanese waters. They do have one of the strongest navies in the world and their air force is far more sophisticated than Russia's
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It is my understanding that Japan does not have nukes, but a country of their technical sophistication could assemble nuclear weapons pretty quickly. They don't do this because it would summon Godzilla.
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