Jobs Numbers - Dramatic Differences

In the prepandemic period 2017, 2018, 2019, the employment level increased about 2.2 Million per year. In the post pandemic last 12 months the US employment level increased 376,000. That’s substantially less than half the rate of increase of the 2017-2019 period. Last month, the employment level went DOWN 408,000.

Worse, the jobs created are mostly part time jobs. The Household Survey shows the whole truth. The Household Survey is the data set used to calculate the unemployment rate. Its bona fides are impeccable. It breaks down employment into Full Time and Part Tome Jobs. Since June 2023 we have lost almost 1.5 MILLION Full Time jobs.

Worst…The BLS Household Survey shows that total employment dropped from 161,866,000 in Nov 2023 to 161,083,000 (edited for typo) in the most recent report. That’s a drop of 783,000 jobs. The only reason the unemployment rate hasn’t skyrocketed is that the Labor Force Participation Rate has declined as well. And the way the unemployment rate math works, a smaller labor force makes the unemployment rate smaller.

Listening to Bloomberg News yesterday they mentioned that all the jobs reports in the last 12 months have been revised downward after the initial numbers came out. Gosh I'm sure the fact that a Democrat is President has nothing to do with that - and, of course, the 'commentators' didn't say anything about that curious phenomenon! And the Powers That Be are so surprised when people don't trust the elite - or their statistics and facts.

Ekosj (View Comment):

In the prepandemic period 2017, 2018, 2019, the employment level increased about 2.2 Million per year. In the post pandemic last 12 months the US employment level increased 376,000. That’s substantially less than half the rate of increase of the 2017-2019 period. Last month, the employment level went DOWN 408,000.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CE16OV

Worse, the jobs created are mostly part time jobs. The Household Survey shows the whole truth. The Household Survey is the data set used to calculate the unemployment rate. Its bona fides are impeccable. It breaks down employment into Full Time and Part Tome Jobs. Since June 2023 we have lost almost 1.5 MILLION Full Time jobs.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12500000

Worst…The BLS Household Survey shows that total employment dropped from 161,866,000 in Nov 2023 to 161,491,000 in the most recent report. That’s a drop of 783,000 jobs. The only reason the unemployment rate hasn’t skyrocketed is that the Labor Force Participation Rate has declined as well. And the way the unemployment rate math works, a smaller labor force makes the unemployment rate smaller.

How is that a drop of 783K jobs? I get a 375K decrease.

I see this in the IT consulting world. When times are tough financially, projects are delayed or canceled in part to conserve cash, and because getting rid of contractors/consultants is easier than laying off people. Hiring is very tough right now. I have been looking for work for almost a year now, and a friend of mine is in the same boat, though she has been completely out of work for that time. She recently got a "part-time" consulting gig which will help, but it makes it very tough. Couple that with the explosion of AI in the IT world and people want AI "qualified" people for products that no one has access to. It reminds me a lot of when I first graduated college in 90 and was looking for work. People wanted workers with 5 years of experience on the AS/400 (it was released in late 1988). Couple that with increasing age discrimination in the marketplace and finding a job as a 55-year-old consultant is getting more and more difficult. My son (an 18-year-old recent High School graduate) is also facing difficulty in getting a job this summer. The pay is nice at places like the local movie theater, or the local grocery store where $15/hr is the norm, but it also means fewer jobs are available. There are zero entry-level bagger openings for example, and the movie theater is only looking for people who have food service experience because their entry-level jobs are all filled, and have been for a while. He is supposed to go to college in late August and will have to pay about $6K for his room and board (he has a scholarship for tuition). He can borrow about $2,750 via a student loan, but the rest is out of pocket. If he got a job for the summer he could likely make $3k which would pay for one semester of college, what happens after that I don't know.

Ekosj (View Comment):

In the prepandemic period 2017, 2018, 2019, the employment level increased about 2.2 Million per year. In the post pandemic last 12 months the US employment level increased 376,000. That’s substantially less than half the rate of increase of the 2017-2019 period. Last month, the employment level went DOWN 408,000.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CE16OV

Worse, the jobs created are mostly part time jobs. The Household Survey shows the whole truth. The Household Survey is the data set used to calculate the unemployment rate. Its bona fides are impeccable. It breaks down employment into Full Time and Part Tome Jobs. Since June 2023 we have lost almost 1.5 MILLION Full Time jobs.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12500000

Worst…The BLS Household Survey shows that total employment dropped from 161,866,000 in Nov 2023 to 161,491,000 in the most recent report. That’s a drop of 783,000 jobs. The only reason the unemployment rate hasn’t skyrocketed is that the Labor Force Participation Rate has declined as well. And the way the unemployment rate math works, a smaller labor force makes the unemployment rate smaller.

Drew in Texas (View Comment):

How is that a drop of 783K jobs? I get a 375K decrease.

Ahhhh Operator error. The current number should be 161083 not 161491. I’ll fix that. Thanks for catching that